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Wednesday, October 25, 2006
Last modified Tuesday, October 24, 2006 9:37 PM PDT




Region's illegal immigrant population pegged at 272,000

By: WILLIAM FINN BENNETT and EDWARD SIFUENTES - Staff Writers

NORTH COUNTY -- According to a new study, an estimated 272,000 illegal immigrants are living in San Diego, Imperial and southern Riverside counties, a figure that translates to nearly 7 percent of the region's 4 million residents.

While the percentage of illegal immigrants remained in the single digits, their numbers are rising rapidly, according to the study.

The number of illegal immigrants living in San Diego and Imperial counties rose 38 percent; in southern Riverside County, the number rose 18 percent between 2000 and 2005, according to the study commissioned by the American Immigration Law Foundation, a nonprofit in Washington that supports legal immigration.

The findings released last week showed that about 69,000 new illegal immigrants have moved into the region since 2000.

Summarizing his work, study author Rob Paral wrote that he produced his figures by studying trends in congressional districts from U.S. Census Bureau reports.

"The undocumented population in each congressional district is an important consideration in gauging whether or not a representative's stance on a particular immigration policy or initiative has a basis in the actual, local impact of undocumented immigration," Paral wrote.

While the local increase is significant, the numbers are even more dramatic in other parts of the nation, if the findings are accurate. Of the country's 435 congressional districts, 107 saw their illegal immigrant population double, according to the study.

San Diego, Imperial and southern Riverside counties are represented by six congressional districts with a combined population of about 4 million, according to the Census Bureau. The 272,000 illegal immigrants that the study claims are living here represent slightly less than 7 percent of the population in those districts, compared with an average of about 4 percent nationwide.

U.S. Rep. Brian Bilbray, R-Escondido, said the report confirmed what seems apparent to anyone passing by any of the numerous day-laborer hiring spots in the region.

"It's obvious to us all that the situation is out of control," Bilbray said. "All the study does is verify that."

Another way to look at the increase is that a rising number of people are being ignored by congressional representatives, said Pedro Rios, director of the San Diego office of the American Friends Service Committee, an international human rights group.

"I think that what it means is that congressional representatives need to represent everyone that lives in their district," Rios said. "They need to listen to those voices who also make valuable contributions to the community."

In Riverside County, Rep. Mary Bono, R-Palm Springs, said the increase means that the federal government is failing to protect the nation's borders.

"I don't think we've been serious about our enforcement," Bono said.

The country needs stronger border enforcement, more vigorous interior enforcement and a guest-worker program, she said.

Nevertheless, it is important that the U.S. Census counts every person, legal or illegal, because that affects important federal funding for local services, such as education, health care and law enforcement, Bono said.

In a phone interview from Chicago on Tuesday, Paral said he began his research with the U.S. Census American Community Survey results released in September that estimates the number of immigrants ---- legal or illegal ---- who moved into communities between 2000 and 2005.

Based on those numbers, he was able to calculate the percentage of new immigrants moving into a given congressional district during the 2000-2005 period, he said.

He then used each district's percentage figure and multiplied that times the estimated 11.5 million illegal immigrants nationwide to come up with his figures.

Jeffrey Passel, a demographer and senior research associate with the Pew Hispanic Center, said Paral's methodology was basically sound.

The data are "not exact, but it's a reasonable method for trying to take national figures and parcel them out," Passel said. "If I were doing something like this (research), I would use a similar technique."

Paral's calculations show the following increases for congressional districts in the region:



45th District ---- Rep. Mary Bono, R-Palm Springs: up 18 percent, or 7,000, for a total of 45,000;


49th District ---- Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista: up 16 percent, or 5,000, for a total of 37,000;


50th District ---- Rep. Brian Bilbray, R-Escondido: up 31 percent, or 10,000, for a total of 42,000.


51st District ---- Rep. Bob Filner, D-San Diego: up 72 percent, or 31,000, for a total of 74,000;


52nd District ---- Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-El Cajon: up 57 percent, or 8,000, for a total of 22,000;


53rd District ---- Rep. Susan Davis, D-San Diego: up 18 percent, or 8,000, for a total of 52,000.

The numbers also show, the report says, that illegal immigrants make up 6.8 percent of the population in Bono's district; 5.6 percent in Issa's district; 6.3 percent in Bilbray's district; 11.2 percent in Filner's district; 3.3 percent in Hunter's district; and 7.8 percent in Davis' district.

The Pew Hispanic Center's Passel said that California continues to have the largest number of illegal immigrants, estimated to be as many as 2.75 million, about 10 percent of whom are living in this region. And yet, the highest percentage growth occurred in the South and Midwest.

In 1990, an estimated 3.5 million illegal immigrants were living in the U.S, with 80 percent of that population living in California, Texas, New York, Illinois, New Jersey and Florida, he said.

By 2005, however, those same six states accounted for about 60 percent of the illegal immigrant population that increased by 200 percent since 1990, Passel said.

The growth outside of states that traditionally had higher numbers of illegal immigrants helps explain the increased attention over illegal immigration, Passel said.

The numbers also show that "attempting to control illegal immigration by border enforcement hasn't worked," Passel said.

Rep. Issa said the rise in the number of illegal immigrants throughout the country explains why the issue is at the forefront of the nation's political discussions.

Communities that once had a relative small Latino population, such as the congressional district represented by a hard-line immigration opponent, Colorado Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo, are now also beginning to experience an increase in that segment of their population. The number of illegal immigrants in his Colorado district went from 6,000 in 2000 to about 14,000 in 2005, a 133 percent increase, according to the study. However, that number represents just 2.1 percent of the overall population of about 700,000 in his district.

-- Contact staff writer William Finn Bennett at (760) 740-5426, or wbennett@nctimes.com., or staff writer Edward Sifuentes at (760)740-3511, or esifuentes@nctimes.com. Comment at nctimes.com.