Thread: Immigration Pushes Duke Aside in 50th

http://nctimes.com/articles/2006/06/...2_516_9_06.txt

Immigration pushes Duke aside in 50th

By: North County Times - Editorial

Our view: Bilbray rode anti-illegal immigrant wave that swamped Busby's ethics-reform message

Before the books close on California's special election of June 2006, consider this: In six months, Randy "Duke" Cunningham's greed and criminality was shoved aside by today's favored scapegoats: illegal immigrants.

By hook and not by crook, Republicans in the 50th Congressional District seem to have successfully shifted the electorate's attention away from the scandal that started this whole mess.


The crook was, of course, Cunningham, whose corruption landed him in federal prison and forced his constituents to elect his replacement on Tuesday. His free fall from grace enticed 18 candidates to enter the race to succeed him, and convinced Democrats that a Republican "safe seat" wasn't so safe after all.

The hook, however, was illegal immigration, a controversy that crested shortly after Cunningham's sentencing on March 3. An issue long dominating our Letters page came to dominate the nation's political debate, kick-started by mass walkouts from school by mostly Latino students beginning March 27. The timing couldn't have been better for Brian Bilbray, a generally moderate Republican who veers furthest to the right on the very issue that came to dominate the 50th District race.

Once Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger heeded a request from San Diego County officials to conduct a special election on April 11 and the runoff on June 6, Busby's best chance was to win election outright on April 11 by getting more than 50 percent-plus-one of the votes. She fell six percentage points short, and Bilbray rode the wave of anti-illegal-immigration fervor right back to the U.S. Capitol.

Two other developments dulled the reformer's blade wielded by Busby, both compliments of Democrats in Washington. In late May, Rep. William J. Jefferson ---- a Louisiana Democrat ---- was charged with accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes and, to the endless joy of cartoonists and late-night comedians across the spectrum, keeping $90,000 of that dirty money in his freezer. Any independent voters inclined to accept the Democrats as the antidote to a "culture of corruption" in our nation's capital had to reconsider.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee bankrolled a series of hard-hitting attack ads against Bilbray. While they weren't as bad as the Republicans' smear of Busby, the expensive Democratic ads undermined Busby's claims to be a reformer unsullied by big-money politics. Sure looked like the same species of duck.

In the end, the vast sums spent by both parties seem to have made little difference. With few absentee ballots still uncounted Friday, Busby had garnered about 45.15 percent of the votes, with Brian Bilbray nabbing 49.51 percent. If the votes won by Libertarian Paul King and Independent William Griffith are added to Bilbray's, candidates to the right of Busby won almost 55 percent of the vote.

Busby had her work cut out for her in a district where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats 3 to 2. Bad timing and the surging illegal immigration debate proved more important in the 50th than even voters' disgust with the Duke-Ster. When Cunningham was crying in front of the federal courthouse in San Diego six months ago, it hardly seemed possible that his actions would matter so little in the race to replace him.

http://nctimes.com/articles/2006/06/...7_376_9_06.txt
Sleepless in the 50th District: Neither party should be too comfortable with Tuesday's results

By: NATHAN L. GONZALES - For the North County Times

Republicans held the levees in San Diego County, but nationally the storm is far from over.

Former Congressman Brian Bilbray's victory in Tuesday's special election was a costly but necessary victory for a Republican Party searching for any sliver of good news. And conversely, Democrat Francine Busby's loss showed that a Democratic wave and new Democratic majority is far from a certainty this November.

There are a handful of lessons to be learned from the special election in California's 50th Congressional District, but it would be inaccurate to label it simply as a bellwether or a sure indicator of the rest of the election cycle.


Both Busby and Bilbray received the focused time, energy and resources from their national parties and activists from across the country. But come November, their rematch will be just one of four dozen or more competitive races from Southern California to Connecticut.

National Republicans should be relieved with Bilbray's victory, but concerned that he underperformed in the GOP-leaning district by at least 5 percentage points. Because California's congressional lines were redrawn after the 2000 Census to re-elect the incumbent party, Bilbray had some electoral room to weather President Bush's poor job-approval numbers in the district. But not every Republican incumbent in the country will have that same cushion in voter registration.

In the final weeks of the campaign, Republicans successfully switched the topic of the race to illegal immigration. The issue had particular salience in the conservative leaning district, just miles from the Mexican border. Bilbray's stance on immigration is more conservative than the public at large, but it was closer to district voters' position than the Democrat's more moderate stance. Republicans also effectively capitalized on Busby's blunder in the final weekend, when she apparently solicited help from illegal immigrants by telling them they "don't need papers" to participate in her campaign.

Earlier in the campaign, Democrats effectively attacked Bilbray for being a lobbyist and Busby's message for change was the right one. But once the issue set shifted to illegal immigration, Democrats were fighting on GOP territory.

Other Republican candidates will be tempted to replicate Bilbray's strategy. But the illegal immigration issue may not be as potent in Indiana, Pennsylvania or other non-border states. And it took an incredible $5 million in outside spending from the National Republican Congressional Committee to change the subject from the national environment to a winning local issue.

This fall, the NRCC won't be able to focus their resources like that. With almost $22.8 million in campaign funds through April, the NRCC could successfully localize five races, about one-tenth of the number of seats they will be defending in the general election.

Even though the Republicans outspent the Democrats in the special election, the environment certainly favored Busby. The outgoing Republican congressman is in prison after resigning the seat. President Bush's poll numbers in the district are terrible. The competitive Democratic primary for governor was supposed to increase voter turnout. And in April, Republicans nominated Bilbray, both a former congressman and former lobbyist ---- two of the worst labels this cycle.

That environment makes Busby's showing particularly disappointing for Democrats. On June 6, Busby received 45 percent, one point higher than her April 11 showing in the initial open primary, and one point higher than what Sen. John Kerry received in the 2004 presidential election.

There is no indication that disaffected Republicans crossed over to vote for Busby or that angry Democrats surged to the polls disproportionately. And there is no indication that the Democrats have effectively positioned themselves as a legitimate outlet for Republican voters' discontent with the president or Congress.

Busby's loss may have actually narrowed the playing field for the Democrats. Open-seat races in Republican-leaning districts in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nevada suddenly look much more difficult for the Democrats.

Instead, Democrats will need to focus their energy on Republican incumbents in Democratic-leaning or toss-up districts where they will not have to rely on large numbers of voters crossing the partisan line.

President Bush's low poll numbers could still hurt Republicans in New England, the mid-Atlantic region or urban areas, districts where the incumbent relies on Democratic and independent voters to get re-elected.

The Democrats suffered an emotional defeat in California, but are still well positioned to make significant gains in November. The Republicans spent what it took to win, but only got a glimpse of what it means to be on the defensive this cycle.

Nathan L. Gonzales is political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a Washington, D.C.- based, nonpartisan, biweekly newsletter that handicaps races for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and governor, nationwide. Read the report at www.rothenbergpoliticalreport.com.

Other Republican candidates will be tempted to replicate Bilbray's strategy. But the illegal immigration issue may not be as potent in Indiana, Pennsylvania or other non-border states.

Don't bet your lunch money on it Nathan.