Thread: Rove's performance on immigration bill has been masterful

http://www.suntimes.com/output/osulliva ... sul06.html


Rove's performance on immigration bill has been masterful

June 6, 2006

BY JOHN O'SULLIVAN



From: Nick Machiavelli, Senior Partner, Machiavelli, O'Blarney, Iago, Alcibiades and Morris, Political Consultants.


To: Karl Rove, the Smoke-Filled Room, Lower Basement, the White House, Washington, D.C.


Dear Karl, My congratulations on how you are handling the immigration reform gambit. If I had not seen it myself, I would never have believed that you could so quickly dig yourself out of the hole into which you had dug yourself. It has been a pleasure to watch a maestro at work.

Only two weeks ago it looked as if the Republicans in the House of Representatives were moving to reject the Senate "open borders" bill cobbled together by Junior, Ted Kennedy, John McCain, the Senate Democrats and the immigration lawyers. Over Memorial Day weekend they had to listen to their constituents denouncing both the bill and the Bush-Democrat coalition behind it at every barbecue and high school graduation. They came back absolutely determined to vote it down.

All seemed bleak. It looked as if America would not get the 66 million new low-paid immigrants the GOP's corporate donors need in the next 20 years. And then you came up with the old "honest broker" temptation or, as you and I call it: Divide, Destroy and Discredit.

Rep. Mike Pence was just perfect: a solid heartland Republican, a decent Midwesterner from Indiana, chairman of the Republican Study Committee, and a leading conservative congressional critic of Junior's out-of-control spending. You can't buy those kind of credentials. But why bother to buy them when they volunteer?

Of course, I know that you had nothing to do with Pence's intervention. How did you persuade him?

Whatever. He stepped forward with a "compromise" proposal designed to unite the House and Senate Republicans -- right tone of party amity. He unveiled his plan at the Heritage Foundation -- a mark of conservative respectability. He promised specifically that his plan would not include an amnesty -- nice reassuring touch. And as soon as he spoke, you had a sheaf of op-eds and editorials ready to roll praising his statesmanlike leadership on a difficult issue.

With that one proposal Pence divided the House Republicans, revived the Senate bill's stalled momentum, and (a bonus this) discredited himself as a future leader of the budget hawks with those Republicans opposed to illegal immigration and those who understand the vast fiscal costs of the Senate bill.

And while Pence's intervention is working its quiet destruction in the House, you are distracting the media and the voters with the constitutional amendment to halt gay marriage. Just a footnote, Karl, but this is the last time you can haul out the gay marriage thing. Those Christian Rightists are notoriously paranoid: Any more defeats on a measure supported by two-thirds of the American people and they'll probably think the campaign for it is being secretly run by gay activists.

Still, on the whole, a magnificent performance. My one doubt: Was it really wise to let Pence write the proposal himself?

You know how it is with these apprentice statesmen: Their noble vision goes to their head. They begin small by wanting the Washington Post to say they've grown in office. They end up trying to re-design the universe. Look at the Great Portmanteau Immigration Reform Bill that Pence is offering. It has 100 practical problems, but two stand out:

First, it denounces the idea of an amnesty for illegals but it's an amnesty bill itself. The 12 million illegals already here get their jobs held for them while they leave the United States and return one week later (still ahead of all those legal applicants lining up outside). Pence may have got this idea from the way members of Congress blend easily into lobbyists on retirement. Call it the "Revolving Door Amnesty."

Second, the Pence proposal argues that the 12 million illegals and any other guest workers could be processed (i.e., sent home, linked with potential employers, re-admitted to the United States, their credentials checked and put back to work) speedily if this were done by efficient private sector employment agencies rather than by the feds. But these agencies don't exist. And if they did, they would be reliant for their guest-worker data on the inefficient federal government. Back to square zero -- administrative chaos at one remove.

In short, the Pence bill is too much like the Bush-Democrat Senate bill. It is an amnesty and an administrative nightmare. And it is not much improved by the Free Enterprise Seal of Approval stamped on its cover. If either bill becomes law, the next few years leading to the 2008 election will see chaos and conflict as millions of legal and illegal immigrants crowd low-paid U.S. workers out of jobs and as their wives and children crowd schools, hospitals and welfare agencies.

Not a good advertisement for Jeb.

Maybe you should think about losing on immigration rather than on gay marriage. Then you can carry on as before -- having tough laws on the books without enforcing them. Hey, it's worked for 20 years. Why change a winning hand?

Your devoted friend,

Nick.


P.S.: If you still want the Senate or Pence bills, I take it you've quietly told your people in San Diego to vote for the Democrat today. Brian Bilbray, the Republican, has come from way behind to 50-50 in the polls by opposing the president on illegal immigration and calling for tough enforcement laws. If he wins against the odds, the House Republicans may go back to opposing the Senate bill outright.