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Monday, December 26, 2005

Should the United States shut the door to Mexico?

By Enrique Andrade González

The history of the relationship between Mexico and the United States, especially since each country gained independence in 1821 and 1776 respectively, has seen more than enough ups and downs.

Geographic proximity has brought about an assimilation of neighbors, and when something important happens on one side of the border it has an effect on the other. Locally a cultural or social event, a birth, a wedding or death, they always transcend the border.

Yet sociopolitical affairs often make the two countries “distant neighbors,� as opposed to close friends.

This coming year will be politically important both in Mexico and the United States, with presidential and congressional elections in Mexico and congressional elections in the U.S., and the outcome of each will have repercussions on the other.

It is in this context that immigration reforms, which may be enacted in the United States in 2006, must be analyzed – historic reforms that will define the foreign policy of the incoming Mexican government, as well as future relations with the United States.

It must be remembered that publicity wise one of the strengths of Vicente Fox during the presidential campaign in 2000 was his close rapport with the United States, and with groups of Mexicans living abroad. And while it was less than enthusiastic, Fox’s government tried to make the subject of migration a priority. A presidential office representing Mexicans abroad was even set up, yet with time it faded towards oblivion and it is not known what was really accomplished if anything.

One of the promises Fox has failed to keep, and one that the Mexican people have not forgotten, is the famous all encompassing immigration pact with the United States. The accord that ex-foreign minister Jorge Castañeda audaciously presented as "the whole enchilada."

The Fox government has also promoted absentee balloting for Mexicans outside the country, and in 2006 those citizens for the first time will have the right to vote for presidential candidates. So far however, very few Mexicans living in the United States have shown an interest in voting.

The U.S. Border Protection, Antiterrorism, and Illegal Immigration Control Act of 2005 (H.R. 4437), that was approved by the House of Representatives, has already brought on more problems than solutions – and surely it will cause more. Internally there will be greater social pressure with Hispanics, it will increase labor costs in agriculture, and the number of deaths among Mexicans trying to cross the border illegally will rise. Internationally the image of the United States, as a guarantor of freedom and human rights, will suffer.

Hopefully the U.S. Senate will modify the Act, complementing it in ways to allow seasonal Mexican workers into the United States, and giving those who qualify a means to secure legal residency once certain conditions are met. What can be expected in the Senate is a bill trying to balance the interests of those who want increased controls on the border, and those who benefit from Mexican migrant workers.

President George W. Bush has spoken out in favor of a temporary guest workers program, and Senators John McCain and Edward Kennedy have been promoting corresponding legislation since the early part of 2005.

All of these factors certainly have, and will have, profound economic, social and political effects on Mexico, particularly during the 2006 election year. Moreover, although many expatriates in the United States may not vote personally in the forthcoming Mexican election, their influence as heads of families is very important as to how millions of others will vote, making the issue of U.S. immigration reform ever more relevant electorally in Mexico.

And now the Mexican government has unexpectedly announced that it will spend US$70 million on publicity, so that legislators and the public at large in the United States will know more about “changes� accomplished during the Fox administration, and thus have a better impression of Mexico. But this comes too late, and the expenditure and efforts will have little or no impact on whatever decisions the U.S. Senate may make, whereas they could influence the mindset of expatriates and the messages they send home.

Once again this shows that the Mexican government has not had a responsible and attentive enough policy with respect to its migration and trade relations with the United States. Policies and practices to cover all angles, which heed social phobias – and that just might influence political decisions so that matters will not reach the extremes that are approaching.

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