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CAMPAIGN 2008
Showdown in N. Hampshire: Answering the call for change
Republican voters fret about immigration, terrorism and taxes. Democrats worry about health care, the economy and Iraq. Candidates from both sides have 3 days to make the case that they can bring change.
By Jim Tankersley

Tribune national correspondent

January 6, 2008

NASHUA, N.H. — A bilingual sign greets drivers entering New Hampshire from Massachusetts on U.S. Highway 3, a testament to how immigrants have shaped the home of the nation's first presidential primary.

"Welcome," it says. "Bienvenue."

New Hampshire's French-Canadian influx peaked decades ago. Today, as the nation grapples with a wave of immigrants crossing its southern border, the state remains 94 percent white. Its Hispanic population, as a share of the state, is six times smaller than the national average. Yet polls show immigration weighing heavily on the minds of New Hampshire Republicans heading into Tuesday's first-in-the-nation primary.

It's a Granite State paradox that extends to nearly every hot topic this election. Democrats here are most concerned with the economy, health care and the Iraq war while picking a president—even though New Hampshire boasts America's lowest poverty rate, one of its lowest unemployment rates and some of its best, cheapest medical care.

What's making New Hampshire voters anxious about many of those issues, experts say, is how quickly they're shifting. The state Hispanic population has grown by 40 percent since 2000. The ranks of the uninsured are swelling faster than the national average. Wage growth has slowed. Meanwhile, foreign competition has clear-cut the timber jobs that drew the Quebecois across the border in the early 20th Century, and a quarter of the state's residents moved here in the last eight years.

Presidential hopefuls, Democrats and Republicans alike, jetted to New Hampshire from Iowa this weekend with a singular goal: to claim the mantle of "change" in a field of candidates promising to shake up Washington.

But for voters here, it appears no changes are more important — or troublesome — than the ones rocking their state's stoic identity.

"We're a state that's evolving pretty quickly now," said Stephen Norton, a third-generation state resident who is executive director of the non-partisan New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies. "Historically we've been five or 10 years behind everybody else in terms of problems hitting us."



'Healthy and wealthy'
New Hampshire has long prided itself on its special brand of livability, which Norton's group tried to quantify in a study this fall. The "What is New Hampshire?" report dubbed the state "healthy and wealthy."

Another recent study — "What Makes New Hampshire Special?" by the non-profit New Hampshire Charitable Foundation — found residents are more likely to vote than Americans as a whole, more likely to participate in charities and neighborhood activities and more likely to trust their neighbors, their government and the police.

State residents also were more trusting of immigrants and minorities than the average American. But the foundation study found residents losing their trust in those groups at a faster rate than the national average — even as the state's foreign-born population grew twice as fast as the nation's, and as New Hampshire residents reported higher-than-average increases in friendships with minorities.

Others suggest that the Internet and cable news shows, rather than personal experience, are stoking the anxieties of New Hampshire voters on such subjects as immigration and the economy.

At events for several Republican candidates last week, attendees almost always raised alarms about undocumented immigrants and their effects on culture, the economy and social services. Yet many of the questioners said in interviews that they had little day-to-day contact with immigrants.

Those sentiments, which polls show large swaths of Republicans share, surprise some researchers.

"It's clearly not about the absolute numbers [of immigrants], because the absolute numbers are not that great," said Kenneth Johnson, a Loyola University Chicago sociologist and visiting professor at the University of New Hampshire, who recently reported on New Hampshire's demographic shifts. "You don't see a lot of evidence of a big Hispanic influx."


Economics gets personal
A quick sketch of New Hampshire's economy shows few signs of the problems plaguing other states and the nation. The 3.4 percent unemployment rate is more than a percentage point below the national average. Census figures show the state's median household income is third-highest in the country.

On a personal level, though, residents are feeling the squeeze of slower-growing wages and a sharp rise in energy costs, particularly home heating oil. Tom Arnold, an IBM worker from Bristol, voiced that frustration at a recent town hall-style meeting with Sen. John McCain.

"I know you talk a lot about foreign policy," Arnold said after McCain ran through positions on Iraq, Pakistan, terrorism and other national security issues, "but I'm kind of focused on earning a buck and keeping my head above water."

The next day, waitress Vicki Plante of Barrington described how — despite working in a state where the health-care system ranks among the nation's best in quality, access and cost — medical insurance costs are driving her to look for a new job after 14 years in the same place.

Plante earns $2.93 an hour, plus tips, pouring coffee at the independently owned Gateway Family Restaurant. She buys health insurance in a pool with a few other waitresses. On New Year's Day, their premiums rose $15 a week, to $104 — an increase in line with the 10 percent annual premium hikes New Hampshire has seen this decade. That's steeper than the national average.

"It's my big thing, as far as who I decide on" this election, Plante said. "A good health plan for us."

Some analysts say New Hampshire is experiencing a certain withdrawal from two decades of robust growth.

"What's been constantly talked about for the last 20 years is how great it is here," said Lewis Feldstein, president of the foundation that issued the "What Makes New Hampshire Special?" report. Later he added: "It may well be that the good life, instead of leaving us more secure and strong, actually makes people more vulnerable to being anxious."

Others say national anxieties have seeped from cable networks and Internet blogs into the state consciousness, and that New Hampshire life hasn't changed much.

"We're like the guy who dresses the same way for 30 years," said Charles Arlinghaus, president of the free-market Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy in Concord. "You have a particularly good pair of pants, you wear them until they get a hole. ... We don't have a hole yet."

jtankersley@tribune.com


• Clintons' would-be dynasty on the line in New Hampshire. Page 15



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