Thread: Is slowing border traffic an illusion?

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Is slowing border traffic an illusion?
Feds report decline in arrests, deaths; critics say data are lacking

Susan Carroll
Republic Tucson Bureau
Oct. 1, 2006 12:00 AM

NOGALES - Senior Border Patrol Agent Jim Hawkins parked on a bluff overlooking Tricky Wash along the U.S.-Mexican border fence in Nogales.

There were no scouts peering over the towering steel fence, no smugglers pushing big groups through downtown. Hawkins, a veteran of seven years, summed it up like this: "It's dead."

And not just here in this once-bustling stretch of Arizona's border with Mexico, but in much of the state.

For years, the Border Patrol's Tucson sector has been the busiest and deadliest in the nation. But in fiscal 2006, arrests declined about 10 percent compared with 2005. And for the first time since the agency started tracking deaths in 1999, the 162 reported fatalities in the sector did not break a record, dropping from 216 in 2005.

Along the entire U.S.-Mexican border, Border Patrol officials reported a decline of about 8 percent in arrests and a drop of nearly 9 percent in deaths for fiscal 2006. Some U.S. officials and residents along Arizona's border credit the deployment of the National Guard with restoring quiet in stretches of southern Arizona long controlled by smugglers.

But experts warned not to be overly optimistic about the lower numbers. Vast tracks of the desert remain wide open, separated from Mexico by a barbed-wire cattle fence or no barrier at all. Thousands of undocumented immigrants cross the U.S.-Mexico border undetected every week.

Congress continues to work on enforcement legislation to make hundreds of miles of border fence a reality. A multimillion-dollar enforcement contract, recently awarded to Boeing, is expected to help shut down more remote corridors, but it's years away.

Hawkins doesn't expect the quiet here to last.

"The National Guard is having a deterrence effect," he said. "The smugglers are just probing it out. It usually takes them a couple of weeks to figure out how to get around them."

Start of a slowdown?

Just a few months ago, smugglers and scouts were still making runs over the border fence in downtown Nogales with groups of undocumented immigrants. Now, agents catch them in ones or twos, Hawkins said. To the east of this border city, reports are starting to come in about bigger groups. They're heading for the flanks of the law enforcement, farther out into the desert.

The number of arrests dropped sharply after the deployment of rotating groups of National Guard personnel during the summer, but Border Patrol officials said a mixture of factors is likely driving down apprehensions.

From Sept. 30, 2005, through Wednesday, the last day statistics were available, the Border Patrol made about 390,000 arrests in the Tucson sector and 118,000 to the west in the Yuma sector, which includes a small portion of California: a drop of about 70,000 for the two sectors from the previous year.

Deaths also decreased to 201 from 267.

Border Patrol officials said the recent decline in arrests is encouraging and means that fewer people are trying to cross the border.

But some experts take issue with that interpretation, saying the statistics leave out the number of people who slip past the Border Patrol. Researchers specializing in the study of border apprehensions report that they typically fluctuate from year to year based on a number of reasons, ranging from Border Patrol enforcement efforts to the demand for workers in the United States.

Corina Robison, a Border Patrol spokeswoman in Washington, D.C., said it's difficult to pinpoint a specific reason for the drop, attributing it broadly to stepped-up enforcement.

"It's hard to tell . . . because they're probably shifting a bit because of the amount of manpower out there," she said. "It's just a mixture of everything . . . that helps."

Still, the decrease in Arizona is relative. The state has been plagued for years by illegal immigration, leading the nation in arrests and deaths. Agents are still making roughly 700 arrests daily in the Tucson sector, which remains the busiest in the nation, although some of the flow recently has shifted to California and Texas.

Even those who don't put a whole lot of stock in the government's method to measure success acknowledge traffic is slowing in Arizona.

Melissa Owen lives on a ranch outside of the border town of Sasabe, a popular smuggling corridor west of Nogales. She is finally seeing the shrubs and cactuses recover along some of the smuggling trails that crisscross her property.

"We've gone from having at least dozens of people, if not hundreds, cross the ranch every night to two or three every two weeks, let's say," she said. "It's been astonishing, and it's been because of the increased presence of Border Patrol.

"I can sleep at night now, I don't have to worry about thefts. I don't have to worry about people breaking into the house, and worse."


New policy, fences


The federal government has tried for years to stem the flow of illegal immigrants through Arizona, pouring millions of dollars into increasing staffing, building border barriers and improving technology.

With mounting public pressure to crack down on the border, President Bush in May authorized thousands of National Guard personnel to assist the Border Patrol through this year, when they will be replaced permanently by a new crop of agents.

As of Wednesday, there were about 1,700 National Guard soldiers supporting the Border Patrol mission in Arizona, said Maj. Paul Ellis, a Guard spokesman.

In the meantime, the House and Senate remain split on how to best deal with the border crisis. Republican House members are adamantly opposed to what they call an "amnesty" provision in the Senate bill. But supporters of the Senate legislation argue that enforcement alone won't solve the nation's complex immigration problems.

Retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe, R-Tucson, said that although the number of arrests and deaths are down in the Tucson sector, it's not necessarily "indicative of a long-term trend."

"The reduction may be explained by a variety of things, including a shift in apprehensions elsewhere. Also, with more Border Patrol presence, those crossing the border are often found before their health is in serious danger," he said.

Kolbe stressed that border enforcement is necessary but should be done "in connection with a reasonable guest-worker program and a realistic solution to the 12 million illegal immigrants living in the U.S. today."


On the ground


With talks breaking down on comprehensive immigration reform, Congress has focused on proposals to build a wall along the border.

On Friday night, the Senate approved building 700 miles of fence and sent the bill to President Bush for his signature. The House passed the bill two weeks ago.

While some along the border welcome a wall that would stretch hundreds of miles, others shake their heads at the idea that a fence would solve the problem, even in the short term.

"I wish our politicians would listen more to people who live and work in this area, rather than come up with these knee-jerk solutions like fencing the whole border," Owen said.

Near downtown Nogales, Librada Sanchez Sanchez, a 50-year-old widow, managed to scale the border fence on a September afternoon. She and three other undocumented immigrants ran from the Border Patrol and hid behind a house in a hilly section of town, where they were quickly picked up.

"We're not criminals," she told the agent who caught her.

"We're peaceful people," said Sanchez, who sells tortillas in the state of Mexico. "I don't deny where I'm from. I want to get ahead for my children; I want to work. Why don't we have the opportunity?"

Hawkins watched as Sanchez and her companions were loaded into the back of a Border Patrol truck, to be processed and then driven back to the Nogales, Mexico, port of entry, less than a mile away.

He said the strategy on the border is working, despite what critics say.

"We can absolutely seal this border," he said. "We just need to keep doing more of what we're doing. It's a matter of will."

I think that with the combination of a larger presence at the border, fewer higher paying construction jobs and the crack down by ICE in some states it is becoming less desirable. Also if they tell people how they are often victims of crime as they carry a lot of cash and how some hve been killed for the money as has occurred in Fort Lauderdale with illegals from Central America, it shows the risks.
I hope this is not a temporary decrease but rather one that will decrese even more.