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Some new twists likely in retelling of 2nd District story
OPINION

By JACK COLWELL
Tribune Columnist

[SIG]

Same old story? The main characters are the same. So are the main issues. So, too, is the money gap.

The main characters, adversaries in the 2004 story and ready for the 2006 sequel, are Congressman Chris Chocola, Bristol Republican seeking re-election, and Joe Donnelly, Granger Democrat seeking to replace Chocola in Indiana's 2nd District.

Here's how the '04 election story ended:

# Chocola, 54.2 percent

# Donnelly, 44.5 percent

The rest of the vote went to a Libertarian candidate.

Same ending in '06?

Some things have changed. And Donnelly is in the sequel because of belief that voter opinions this time will favor him on issues of Iraq, Social Security, trade and where president Bush is leading the country. Those also were issues in the last race.

"I am going to run," Donnelly says. "It's just a matter of formalizing it."

He already is traveling throughout the 100-mile-long district stretching from the Michigan line to Kokomo. He has endorsements from Democratic chairmen at the district and county levels and from key labor unions. And he is raising funds.

Fundraising totals, however, seem thus far to involve the same old story.

Federal campaign expense reports show these amounts of cash on hand as of June 30:

# Chocola, $602,172

# Donnelly, $88,364

Lack of funds crippled Donnelly's campaign in '04. When federal reports in April of that election year showed similar totals to those listed above, Donnelly's chances of getting all-out help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and targeting from other national and state sources of potential help pretty much vanished.

He got no help from the DCCC, which chose to direct resources to other districts deemed more winnable. He couldn't get on TV with his campaign message until very late in the campaign -- too late -- and he had to spend $100,000 of his own money to get on at all in the final three weeks. It doesn't matter what message you have if you can't get it out to the voters, especially when your opponent could overwhelm you with a long and effective TV blitz. Chocola could and did.

Changes?

One of the most important, Donnelly says, is that he has begun fundraising much earlier. He hopes to present his message effectively and to convince Democrats nationally to target the district for all-out help.

Indeed, he didn't get in the race last time until just before Christmas of '03 and didn't really start fundraising until into January of the election year.

Changes?

Iraq: "While the military has performed magnificently," Donnelly says, "it is clear now that administration officials can't get their story straight and have not leveled with the American people on the situation."

Social Security: More voters now will be receptive to his opposition to privatization, Donnelly believes.

Trade: "We see that NAFTA just made things worse, and CAFTA is going to do the same thing," he says, noting that Chocola's cast a decisive vote to pass CAFTA.

President Bush: "People are very concerned about the direction of this country," Donnelly contends, and being a loyal supporter of the president won't help Chocola this time.

Another change is that Donnelly is likely to have a primary election opponent.

Ed Cohen, associate editor of Notre Dame Magazine, announced on a Web site for The Michiana Democracy for America Meetup Group that he is challenging Donnelly for the Democratic nomination.

Cohen supported Donnelly last time and also campaigned in Iowa and Michigan for Howard Dean. Cohen says that Donnelly lost, not because of funding, but "because he didn't have enough message or exhibit any real passion, and I didn't see any evidence that it would be different this time around."

Some Democratic leaders fear that a primary challenge could be harmful, keeping Donnelly from concentrating entirely on Chocola and fundraising for the fall and perhaps leaving scars.

Another view is that Cohen, coming at Donnelly from the left on the political spectrum, could help Donnelly establish a centrist image before Chocola hammers away at him as too liberal.

Donnelly says he has no worry about the challenge and is pleased with support from people who had worked with Cohen on political causes.

A possible plus from a primary challenge would be a chance for Donnelly to test his organization before the fall campaign. A test might have helped him last time. His organization was is disarray in the fall campaign.

He plans to change that, no longer having an organization spending too much on personnel providing too little in results.

Same old story? Much in the sequel is the same, candidates, issues and initial money gap. Much also could be changed. Changed enough, Donnelly hopes, to change the ending.

Jack Colwell is a columnist for The Tribune.