If this assessment is accurate it's not looking good for us. I am voting Romney in California today for no other reason than to stop McCain!

Super Tuesday: It begins
By Michelle Malkin • February 5, 2008 08:04 AM

Scott at Election Projection has his big Super Duper Mega Jumbo Tuesday predictions up. Reality bites:

Here’s how I see the Republican races unfolding today. John McCain will be the big winner. He is still riding the momentum from his victories in South Carolina and Florida - plus he enjoys a structural advantage. Unlike the Democrats, who award all delegates (except super delegates) proportionally according to the vote, state GOP conventions have several methods for allocating their delegates. Many states have a winner-take-all format. Others use a proportional model. Still others choose a modified winner-take-all system which takes congressional district results into account.

It just so happens that in many states where McCain is ahead, the method is winner-take-all. As a result, he stands to gain large delegate blocks in such states as New York, Arizona, Missouri, and New Jersey. One the other hand, with the exception of Utah, states Mitt Romney might be expected to win break down the allocation of delegates to more than one candidate. For example, Romney’s home state of Massachusetts employs a proportional model.

The bottom line is that McCain’s delegates will come easier than Romney’s, increasing the effect of his strong polling numbers nationwide. I’m predicting McCain will win 60% to 65% of the delegates at stake today. Mitt Romney will come in with 25% to 30% or so, and Mike Huckabee, around 10%. Ron Paul’s best chance of picking up delegates will come in Alaska. Other than that, he may snatch a delegate here and there, but his haul won’t amount to much.

On the Dem side, it looks like there still won’t be a clear winner at the end of the day.

If you’re voting today, let us know how you voted and what the mood is at the polls.

YouTube has a Super Tuesday page here. If you’ve got a camera, make sure to upload your video and provide some conservative flavor.

States/territories voting:

Alabama
Alaska
American Samoa
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Utah
West Virginia

From the USAToday cheat sheet:

7 p.m. ET: Polls close in Georgia, where Democrats award 87 delegates and Republicans award 72.

• 8 p.m. ET: Polls close in Illinois (153 Democratic delegates, 57 Republican); Massachusetts (93 Democratic, 40 Republican); Missouri (72 Democratic and 58 Republican); and New Jersey (107 Democratic, 52 Republican).

• 9 p.m. ET: Polls close in Arizona (56 Democratic and 50 Republican); and New York (232 Democratic, 101 Republican).

• 10 p.m. ET: Polls close in Utah (23 Democratic; 36 Republican).

• 11 p.m. ET: Polls close in California (370 Democratic; 170 Republican).

Reader David L. sends this graphic on the front page of the Wisconsin State Journal, which has apparently decided that the GOP race is already over:



David Harsanyi at the Denver Post weighs in on McCain vs. conservatives:

This week McCain will be stopping in at the Conservative Political Action Conference to cultivate the hard hearts of the rank and file.

He will, self-effacingly, forward the fable that he was a mere “foot soldierâ€