Thread: Swinging the Latin Vote

Swinging the Latin Vote
January 28, 2008
Author: Toni Johnson

A protester holds a sign as he chants slogans during a rally in Miami. Hundreds of thousands of mostly Hispanic immigrants took to the street. (AP/Alan Diaz)

While perhaps not the defining issue this primary season, the often acrimonious immigration debate could lead to higher than average Hispanic voter turnout. This was the case in the 2006 midterm elections, when an additional 800,000 (Hispanic News) voted compared with 2004, according to the Pew Hispanic Center. February 5 may provide a clearer sense of immigration’s role as a swing issue when more than twenty states—including border states with large Hispanic populations like California, Arizona, and New Mexico—hold nominating elections. An early test case may be the January 29 Florida primary where Hispanics constitute 20 percent of the population (BBC).

Analysts will try to gauge the strength (Sun-Sentinel) of Hispanic voters in Florida, 56 percent of whom went for President Bush in the 2004 election, as compared to 40 percent of Hispanics nationwide. Courting the Cuban vote in the state, GOP candidates have all said they support the U.S. trade embargo with Cuba (WashPost). But Cubans are no longer the dominant Hispanic vote in the state, says one Democratic strategist in the Sun-Sentinel. And experts say the changing demographic makes it harder to estimate which way voters will lean.

Even so, the debate over immigration has been a sore point for Hispanics, and even among some Florida Cubans. A report from the Pew Hispanic Center says for the country as a whole, Hispanics—who represent about 15 percent of the population—may be a swing vote for 2008 (PDF). Nearly 80 percent of registered Hispanic voters nationwide said the immigration issue was very important to them in this presidential race. Republicans seem more vulnerable than Democrats in the debate, the Pew survey said, with 41 percent of Hispanic voters favoring Democrats’ handling of illegal immigration versus 14 percent for Republicans.

Republican Mitt Romney, who favors a get-tough policy that includes increased deportation of illegal immigrants, won the GOP Nevada caucus by a wide margin and won convincingly in economically strapped Michigan. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who backs a path-to-citizenship approach combined with tougher border surveillance, finished third in Nevada behind Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), another illegal immigration hard-liner. Hispanic voters comprised 8 percent of Republican voters in Nevada compared to 15 percent of Democratic voters (CNN), many of whom went for Nevada caucus winner Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY). Hispanic voters—considered a “mainstay of Clinton’s baseâ€

I get tired of mccains stand on illegals as moderate.It is not moderate accept millions of law breakers into our country.IT is not moderate to ignore the drugs and thousands of deaths of americans at the hands of illegal immigrant.It is an extreme left position,PERIOD!

What sickens me is supposedly the anti illegal immigration org, You don't speak for me, has endorsed Ron Paul!!! Well I am of Hispanic descent on my Mother's side and that orgs leader definetly does NOT speak for me or millions of other Hispanic Americans. That being said it is his vote those who do not agree can leave his org or agree to disagree.

Whatever becomes of endorsements..I truly pray we can remain friendly towards one another. Though I believe many members may flee to sites that they feel are more compatible with their beliefs.

Just ignore this CFR propoganga, they are trying to get their agenda implemented. American Latinos vote pretty much the same way other Americans do, for their own interests and not for illegal aliens.

I think that a lot could be done to help the situation if the need for investment to increase income and create jobs in Mexico and the other sending countries was taken into consideration. A moderate position should be enforce our immigration law but invest more in the sending countries. I want to see Romney espouse that course of action.