Talking Tactics: McConnell Could Force Reid to Yield

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0307/3199.html

By: Tom DeLay
March 19, 2007

With the possible exception of President Bush's insistence on pronouncing nuclear as "nucular," few things evoke a greater chasm between elite and public opinion than immigration reform.

For years now, the American people have, with unerring consistency, held to the view that the illegal part of the phrase "illegal immigrant" ought to actually mean something. Public opinion polls routinely demonstrate that the American people believe illegal immigration is a problem, that the all-too-bipartisan habit of looking the other way is an even bigger problem and that the time has come, especially in the wake of 9/11, to secure the border. They want the border secured and those on the other side of it discouraged from crossing. Once that's done, the American people are open to discussion about what we do with the illegal immigrants already here.

Since this approach dovetails nicely with conservative politics, one might think the GOP-dominated government from 2001 to 2007 might have done something about it. We might well have, except for one thing. Bush simply believes that America ought to open its borders, welcoming immigrants, and offer generous benefits to anyone who wants a life here.

After watching the president for years handle this issue, I don't think there's any question his position is a sincere extension of his personal compassion. As he sees it, the United States is a great country, we're a nation of immigrants, and anyone willing and able to drop everything they've ever known for a shot at the American dream should be welcomed, not turned away. His position is generally supported by our economic elite, who point to our economy's voracious appetite for cheap labor.

Heading into the last election, Republicans were for securing the border and against rewarding current illegal immigrants with amnesty. Our strategy then was to pass a strong border security bill in the House, knowing the Senate would do what the Senate does and weaken it by passing a more "comprehensive" bill. The subsequent conference committee would have produced a strong border security bill with some sort of limited guest worker program -- something for everyone, including the president. Unfortunately, Senate Republicans lacked the votes, leadership and foresight to do the smart thing.

Now, open-borders Democrats control the House, probably have a filibuster-proof, bipartisan coalition in the Senate, and the president is still with them. Passing their version of immigration reform should be easy. The question now is, with the deck overwhelmingly stacked in their favor, can the Democrats pull it off? That this is even an open question is a mark against their effectiveness as a majority so far.

A major bill like this has a lot of moving pieces, so it probably makes sense to open negotiations with the Senate even before the bill moves in the House. If I were in Speaker Nancy Pelosi's shoes, I would step back and let the committee chairmen take the reins. With the Rules Committee as a backstop, House Democrats are in a much stronger position to dictate the terms of the final product than their Senate counterparts. Failure to produce a "pure" liberal bill out of the House would be a ridiculous failure, and is thus extremely unlikely. In the Senate, it's a bit trickier, but only a bit.

This is a huge -- almost make-or-break -- opportunity for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.). After watching his Republican counterpart, Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.), run circles around him during the Iraq resolution debate, failure to close the deal on immigration reform -- with the House and White House behind him -- would severely degrade his leadership position. Enacting immigration reform would give him a victory to claim, however easy it ought to be. Failing to do so might spur a mutiny.

For Senate Republicans, or rather, the few immigration conservatives among them, the job is simple: Find 41 votes and hold on for dear life. It's no criticism of McConnell to say it's probably an impossible task. McConnell and his 41 votes, if he can find them, will be standing alone. Yet he will have 200 million Americans behind him, wondering why it is that they are in the minority.

Tom DeLay represented Houston from 1985 to 2006. During his climb up the GOP ladder, he served as majority whip and majority leader. He runs a conservative blog at www.TomDeLay.com.