Thread: Primary voters not too keen on centrists this year

http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbc ... -1/opinion

Primary voters not too keen on centrists this year


By RONALD BROWNSTEIN, Los Angeles Times

Published: Sunday, Sep. 17, 2006

WASHINGTON – The latest nationwide round of primaries demonstrated the persistence – and limits – of the ideological challenge faced by moderates in both parties during an age of intense political polarization.

In Rhode Island, moderate Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee defeated a challenge Tuesday from a much more conservative opponent – a result that cheered GOP centrists, who have seen their influence wane within their party.

“We are very much alive; very much kicking and very much winning,” said Sarah Chamberlain Resnick, executive director of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group of GOP centrists that backed Chafee.

But elsewhere, centrists struggled in several of Tuesday’s contests. Candidates identified with their party’s ideological vanguard won a closely-watched Republican House primary in Arizona and a Democratic House primary in New Hampshire. In Maryland, Democratic Rep. Albert Wynn won a narrow victory against a liberal challenger who denounced his vote for the Iraq war.

“Despite Chafee’s success . . . the trend toward increasing polarization continues,” said Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta. “That doesn’t mean moderates can’t survive – but it’s difficult.”

Chafee, for instance, survived not because of support from Republicans, but because he attracted a surge of independent voters to participate in the primary.

The week’s flurry of closely contested races followed a nominating season in which an unusual number of incumbents confronted serious challenges – a trend capped last month by the primary defeats of Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman in Connecticut and another moderate, Republican Rep. Joe Schwarz of Michigan.

Independent political analyst Rhodes Cook, in the new issue of his monthly newsletter, calculated that even before Tuesday’s results, 23 House incumbents and three senators – Lieberman and Republicans Mike DeWine of Ohio and Conrad Burns of Montana – were held to 75 percent of the vote or less against primary challengers. Those are results that, in Cook’s view, represent more than nuisance challenges to incumbents.

On Tuesday, Chafee was held below that threshold, winning 54 percent of the vote. And Wynn ended up with only 50 percent of the vote in his Maryland House race.

“The incumbents are not getting the deference in their party in many cases that they might have gotten in the past,” Cook said.

Two common threads run through many of the races. One is that more Republicans are facing serious challenges than Democrats.

The other trend crosses party lines. A succession of relatively centrist Democrats and Republicans have faced tough contests against more ideological opponents who have questioned the loyalty of the incumbents to their party and its ideological principles.

That was the centerpiece of Ned Lamont’s victory against Lieberman, as well as sustained, but ultimately unsuccessful, primary challenges to Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar of Texas and Jane Harman of California.

On Tuesday in New Hampshire, Carol Shea-Porter, an anti-war activist, upset a state legislator backed by most of the party establishment for the Democratic nomination to oppose Rep. Jeb Bradley, R-N.H., in November.

Likewise, the charge of cooperating too much with Democrats surfaced in several Republican primary challenges against incumbents.

Schwarz, a first-term moderate, was ousted in last month’s Michigan primary by conservative Tim Walberg. And Republicans Chris Cannon of Utah and Ralph Regula of Ohio faced credible primary challenges earlier this year from conservatives.

Several of the primary contests for open House seats have turned on similar ideological contrasts.

In Arizona on Tuesday, Randy Graf, a staunch conservative who stressed his opposition to illegal immigration, defeated two moderates for the GOP nomination to succeed Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe, another moderate.

Republican fears that Graf may not be able to hold the closely balanced district were instantly fanned Wednesday when Kolbe announced he would not endorse the nominee because of their “profound and fundamental differences.”

The race between Chafee, the son of the late GOP Senator John Chafee, and Stephen Laffey, the mayor of Cranston, was the marquee match-up this year between the conservative and moderate wings in the GOP.

Laffey ran as much as a populist and reformer as a conservative, but his campaign attracted extensive support from the Club for Growth, a conservative group that promotes anti-tax candidates. Laffey’s bid also drew energy from complaints among GOP activists that Chafee has broken too often with President Bush, opposing him on tax cuts, the Iraq war and other issues.

Chafee’s victory buoyed Republican hopes of holding the Rhode Island Senate seat in November against Democratic nominee Sheldon Whitehouse. Polls had shown Whitehouse with a large lead over Laffey, but running closely with Chafee.

Fears of losing the seat helped prompt the national GOP’s political apparatus to launch a massive effort behind Chafee, including a withering barrage of negative advertisements against Laffey. The Republican National Committee also deployed its sophisticated voter targeting technology for Chafee.

In a memo obtained by the Los Angeles Times, RNC officials said they used their “microtargeting” technology, which tries to deduce voter sympathies in part by tracking their consumer preferences, to direct a massive get-out-the-vote effort for Chafee. The RNC said its turnout program made 198,921 contacts with voters in the campaign’s final 11 days, helping to propel a record turnout nearly 40 percent larger than the previous high in a Republican primary.

That large influx to the polls, “means there was a bunch of independents who flooded into that primary and they are the ones who saved Chafee,” said Darrell West, a political scientist at Brown University in Rhode Island. “It suggests that this general election is going to be very competitive.”

Rhode Island, moderate Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafeesaid yea to pro Amnesty bill that was just passed in the Senate (S. 2611).


from an email i just recieved

+ + "Amnesty Republicans"

Despite their best attempts at hoodwinking the American
public into believing that S. 2611 is a "guest-worker"
bill, the truth is it is nothing more than a blanket
amnesty bill. Regardless of the language they use, it
is what it is. Grassfire is taking issue with these
"Amnesty Republicans" whose actions have not only
disrespected the citizens of our nation, but also
further divided the Republican Party.

Here's our list of "Amnesty Republicans."

Robert Bennett (UT): (202) 224-5444
Sam Brownback (KS): (202) 224-6521
Lincoln Chafee (RI): (202) 224-2921
Norm Coleman (MN): (202) 224-5641
Susan Collins (ME) (202) 224-2523
Larry Craig (ID): (202) 224-2752
Mike DeWine (OH): (202) 224-2315
Bill Frist (TN): (202) 224-3344
Lindsay Graham (SC): (202) 224-5972
Judd Gregg (NH): (202) 224-3324
Chuck Hagel (NE): (202) 224-4224
Richard Lugar (IN): (202) 224-4814
Mel Martinez (FL): (202) 224-3041
John McCain (AZ): (202) 224-2235
Mitch McConnell (KY): (202) 224-2541
Lisa Murkowski (AK): (202) 224-6665
Richard Shelby (AL): (202) 224-5744
Gordon Smith (OR): (202) 224-3753
Olympia Snowe (ME): 202) 224-5344
Arlen Specter (PA): (202) 224-4254
Ted Stevens (AK): (202) 224-3004
George Voinovich (OH): (202) 224-3353
John Warner (VA): (202) 224-2023

+ + Don't Lose Hope -- Battle Just Begun!

“We are very much alive; very much kicking and very much winning,” said Sarah Chamberlain Resnick, executive director of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group of GOP centrists that backed Chafee.

In the latest Rasmussen poll, Chaffee is losing to his Democratic challanger by 8 points.

Spin that.