www.dfw.com

Posted on Sun, Aug. 14, 2005

They are a-changin'

Star-Telegram

The top-rated radio station in North Texas this spring didn't feature a country or rap or talking-head format. It was KESS/107.9 FM La Que Buena, a regional Mexican music station.

The top-rated local TV news broadcasts in the Dallas market for adults 18 to 34 aren't anchored by people named Jane or Tracy. Spanish-language Univision's Noticias 23, which airs on KUVN/Channel 23, ranked No. 1 at 5 and 10 p.m. in the May 2005 sweeps, topping the competition from every English-language station.

Neither fact comes as a surprise to people who track demographic changes in Texas, which is now a minority-majority state for the first time since ... oh, the days of the Republic of Texas.

In a census report released Thursday, Texas' minority population was estimated at 11.3 million, or 50.2 percent of the state's total population of 22.5 million. Although Anglos are still the state's largest individual population group, they no longer constitute the majority.

Viewed through the myopic lens that xenophobes and bigots use, this information is bad news for Anglos. Sadly, some people think the game of life must have losers in order for others to win, and therefore they are threatened by the numbers.

Facts are facts: Texas is changing - rapidly. By 2030, Texas will have a younger and more diverse population than most of the United States, according to projections made by state demographer Steve Murdock. Elderly Texans will tend to be Anglos. Young-er Texans - those in their most productive work years - will be overwhelmingly non-Anglo.

A clear example of this can be found in the enrollment statistics for the Fort Worth school district. Half of the more than 80,000 children who will start public school Monday in Cowtown speak something other than English as their primary language.

As goes the Lone Star State, so will the rest of the nation go: The Texas of today will be the United States of tomorrow. The Census Bureau has projected that by 2040, the U.S. population will be 53 percent Anglo and 47 percent non-Anglo. Those numbers mirror what Texas was - in 2003.

The message from Murdock, who heads the Texas State Data Center at Texas A&M University, hasn't changed during the years he's been studying and talking about the numbers: The future of all Texans is tied to the changes occurring and how the state's leadership handles them.

None of this has to be negative news if Texas - and the rest of the nation - is prepared to address the challenges inherent in a dynamic shift in demographics.

First and foremost, that means ensuring that all Texans have the skills and education necessary to be competitive in what is increasingly an international economy.

Contrary to what isolationists believe, the answer is not walling up the border between Texas and Mexico. The growth within the Latino population is not purely a function of immigration, legal or illegal. Even if the southern border were lined with guards and strung with barbed wire, it would have a negligible impact on the percentage of increase within the Hispanic population. The growth is a result of the birth rate within the Latino population already here.

Nor is this particular growth factor engraved in stone. As education and prosperity increase in any segment of the population, birth rates decline. The same goes for the second and third generations in families.

The challenge is to make sure that African-Americans and Hispanics receive the education and training that will enable them to prosper.

In 2000, African-American and Hispanic households in Texas recorded an average income that was less than two-thirds that of Anglos. Female-headed households had an average income of less than $25,000. Demand for publicly funded social and health care services was on the rise.

The fastest-growing segment of the population - Hispanics - lags behind in high school graduation rates, which affects employment possibilities and earning power.

If the state's elected, business, academic and community leaders don't pay attention, and if current trends persist, then the statistics would very well become alarming.