Focus on immigration

This is the first in an occasional series on issues the candidates will be facing in the coming months.




Cynthia Martin lives in tiny Errol, N.H., 2,000 miles from the Mexican border. Only three of Errol's 298 residents are Hispanic, and 17 were born outside of the United States, according to the 2000 Census.

Still, Martin doesn't hesitate when asked which issue will drive her vote in the Republican primaries Jan. 8 -- illegal immigration.

"We need to address this issue," said Martin, 46. "When my ancestors came here, they knew how to speak English."
Smith's passionate views are not unique, even in corners of the country where the effect of immigration is slight. Whether it's a diner in New Hampshire or a hotel ballroom in Florida, presidential candidates field questions about illegal immigration nearly everywhere they go.

And they seem to have taken notice. All three Republican frontrunners -- Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee -- have sharpened their stance on immigration in recent months. The topic dominated two recent Republican debates, and all three have launched television ads that tout their hard line.

Democrats have had to navigate the issue more carefully, weighing their desire to appeal to Hispanic voters against a need not to appear too soft on illegal immigration. The pitfalls of such a balance became painfully evident at a Democratic debate in October, when Hillary Clinton seemed to flip-flop on a proposal to issue driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.

Because illegal immigration touches on so many facets of American life -- the economy, culture, legal system, and national security, to name a few -- it's no wonder "it's such a powerful issue," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. "I think when we get to the general election, where there are going to be some pretty stark differences between the two parties, it's going to be a very important issue."

But while Americans -- especially Republicans -- increasingly identify "illegal immigration" as important to their vote, many polls suggest that the nation's views are more nuanced than the rhetoric of many candidates. For example, 54 percent of voters nationwide say they would support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, compared to 39 who are opposed, according to an October survey conducted by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center. Although most Republican candidates say they oppose amnesty for illegal immigrants, GOP voters are evenly divided, with 47 percent saying they favor amnesty if the immigrants pass background checks, pay fines and have jobs.

So why, then, are the candidates so fixated on immigration? "The people who really care about cracking down on illegal immigration ... are very intense and very vocal," said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. "They're more likely to vote on that issue."

Still, despite their efforts to establish themselves as tough on illegal immigration, recent polls suggest that all three of the Republican frontrunners still have work to do.

"You don't get the sense that one candidate is seen widely as being the best on that issue to Republican primary voters," said Carroll Doherty, associate director of the Pew Research Center.

One reason may be that nearly every Republican hopeful once had a more moderate stance on immigration. When he was mayor of New York City Giuliani continued a policy that did not check the status of immigrants who applied for city services. Romney has said he will cut funding to "sanctuary cities," but did not do so as governor of Massachusetts, home to six such cities. And Huckabee, who recently accepted the endorsement of the founder of the hard-line Minuteman Project, supported tuition assistance for the children of illegal immigrants while he was Arkansas governor.

The heated rhetoric has led some to conclude that the candidates are appealing to voters' worst instincts. "The fear of the immigrant, the fear of the unknown, runs deep in the American spirit," said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the Los Angeles-based National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, a nonpartisan group. The candidates "are making it an urgent issue for people who are not being touched by immigration in their day-to-day lives."

Although the Republicans are steering right on immigration, some observers wonder how those views will play in the general election.

Democrats have also struggled to establish themselves on the issue. All three Democratic frontrunners -- Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards -- have generally supported tightening border security and cracking down on employers who hire illegal immigrants, but offering a path to citizenship for those already here.

Matt Bennett, a spokesman for Third Way, a center-left think tank in Washington, D.C., said he believes the Democrats' more nuanced position will play better to a national audience that itself holds a complex view about immigration. "On the one hand they believe that we are a nation of immigrants, but we are also a nation of laws," Bennett said. "The candidates who deal with immigration in a simplistic way, as I think Republicans are, ultimately are getting it wrong."

Stu Rothenberg, an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C., said the Republicans are focusing on immigration because they are wary of talking about Iraq and the economy and being perceived as criticizing President George W. Bush. "You can't talk about the last eight years, so you will probably focus on a current problem that is likely to be around," Rothenberg said.

In speaking out against illegal immigration, Smith and others said, Republicans risk turning off voters who may label them as bigots. "I think the candidate who is going to be able to effectively use immigration as an election issue," said Smith, "is going to use it in such a way that they don't appear to have any level of animosity or bias towards immigrants. They're going to have to do it on the up and up."


BY KATIE THOMAS | katie.thomas@newsday.com

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