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Thread: Trumpís Hardline Immigration Stance Got Him To The White House

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  1. #1
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Trumpís Hardline Immigration Stance Got Him To The White House

    Trumpís Hardline Immigration Stance Got Him To The White House

    That may overwhelm the popularity of DACA as far as Republicans in Congress are concerned.

    By Harry Enten and Perry Bacon Jr.
    Sep. 12, 2017 at 5:59 AM

    President Trumpís decision to end the Obama administrationís Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program (better known as DACA) seems like a political loser. Polling shows that most Americans support the program, which protects undocumented immigrants who were brought to the United States as children from deportation, and donít want participants removed. This includes, in some polls, a plurality of Republicans. That may be why some congressional Republicans have lined up behind a bill that essentially reinstates DACA.

    A DACA-like bill could be approved by Congress. But thereís a big force in the way: Anti-immigration sentiment in the Republican Party. DACA may be popular, even among some Republicans, but hardline immigration policy has been growing as an animating force in GOP politics for years. It helped put Trump in the White House.

    So looking only at the polling on DACA can be misleading if youíre trying to gauge the chances that the Republican-controlled Congress will replace the program. During policy debates, we sometimes become too focused on individual questions instead of looking at the broader public view. On the issue of gun control, for example, Democrats have liked to point out that background checks have near universal support. Yet, Congress has repeatedly failed to pass a background check bill. Part of the reason: Background checks may poll well, but gun control as a general concept is less popular. Similarly, Republicans tend to poll evenly with Democrats on which party ďwould do a better job of dealing withĒ gun policy. In other words, gun policy divides voters along normal partisan lines, making it unlikely that Republicans would be punished for sticking to their position on a specific policy question within that issue.

    Immigration is similar to guns in that the Democratic position on many specific immigration policy questions is more popular than the Republican position, but Republicans hold their own on immigration more generally. Much of Trumpís immigration agenda doesnít poll well: For instance, there isnít broad support for building a border wall with Mexico, limiting legal immigration or ending DACA. However, recent surveys from George Washington University and Morning Consult found that Democrats and Republicans tend to poll evenly when it comes to which party is trusted more to handle immigration.

    Additionally, immigration tends to be an issue that is more important to Republicans than Democrats. The 2016 national exit poll found that Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 31 percentage points among voters who said immigration was the most important issue facing the country. The 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study found that 73 percent of Trump voters said immigration was of ďvery high importanceĒ to them, compared with 24 percent of Clinton voters. And despite Trumpís rhetoric on immigration and Latinos during the 2016 campaign, he probably did no worse among them than Mitt Romney did in 2012. (And he may have done slightly better.)

    So even though DACA is popular, Republicans would be unlikely to face a backlash among their voters ó even their more centrist ones ó should they refuse to pass a replacement.

    Indeed, Republican members of Congress could face a backlash if they pass one ó in the form of primary challenges. In recent elections, a hardline stance on immigration has proved to be a winner in Republican primaries. It has been highly correlated with how well GOP senators have done against primary challenges ó senators with more hardline positions have done better against primary challengers; those with more moderate views have done worse.

    In 2016, moreover, immigration may have been the issue most responsible for Trumpís winning the Republican nomination. In every state with a caucus or primary exit poll, he did best among voters who said immigration was their top issue.1
    Immigration drove Trumpís victory in the GOP primary

    Trumpís vote share in 2016 primaries and caucuses among voters who listed a given issue as most important
    TRUMPíS VOTE SHARE AMONG VOTERS WHOSE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE WAS Ö

    (CLICK ON LINK TO SEE CHART)

    Exit polls from New York, Oklahoma, Vermont, West Virginia and Wisconsin were excluded from analysis because of insufficient sample size. Other contests did not have entrance or exit polls.

    Sources: CNN, Edison Research

    Thatís the GOPís conundrum on immigration and DACA: The politics of ďimmigrationĒ would suggest that Republicans let DACA lapse, leaving some of the 800,000 recipients subject to deportation; the politics of DACA more narrowly would argue for passing a bill that grants some of its protections. And lawmakers will probably get pressure from both sides.

    Vocal conservative activists such as Ann Coulter and the Federation for American Immigration Reform are against any kind of broad protection from deportation like DACA. Breitbart, the website run in part by former Trump chief strategist Steve Bannon, has been casting any kind of formalization of DACA policy as ďamnesty,Ē a word that conservatives often invoke to drive up opposition to more liberal immigration proposals among party activists. Conservative activists could still declare that a vote for a DACA replacement both rewards illegal behavior and, in effect, gives Obama a policy win. If that kind of argument takes hold among party activists, it will be hard for congressional Republicans to support this legislation.

    But because DACA itself is popular, Republican lawmakers will feel some pressure to pass a bill. Pro-DACA interest groups will be in their ears as well. And it will be difficult to paint law-abiding young adults who have lived in the U.S. for much of their lives as unsympathetic figures.

    Whether a bill passes may come down to where House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell land. Itís not clear that either will push for a bill to be approved, and the two congressional leaders have a huge amount of influence on what gets a formal vote. Bringing a bill up that will pass only because of intense Democratic support would be a controversial move for either Republican, leaving both vulnerable to criticism from their partyís base. Ryan did say that he didnít want Trump to end DACA, but McConnell praised Trumpís decision. McConnell hasnít said there will be fast congressional approval of a DACA-like bill.

    Ryan, though, may be particularly hard-pressed to bring to the floor a DACA-like bill that would be dependent on Democratic votes to pass. U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks of Alabama, who is a member of the House Freedom Caucus, a bloc of the chamberís most conservative members, said in 2015 in a speech and in a letter to Ryan that he released publicly that Ryan had agreed to bring immigration measures to the floor of the House only if they had majority support among Republicans. Ryan has neither confirmed nor denied this.

    Ironically, any DACA replacement billís fate may be determined by the man who ended the original program: Trump. And while Trump seems to think Obama exceeded his executive authority in implementing DACA, the president has not been clear about where he stands on granting some kind of legal status and protection from deportation for undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children. After his administration rescinded DACA, Trump called for Congress to take action to replace it and said that if it doesnít, he may revisit the issue. He even supposedly asked Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader in the Senate, how he could help pass a bill. If Trump were to push hard for a new DACA bill, hesitant Republicans might get on board. Trump has a lot of credibility on the issue of immigration with the Republican base that other Republicans donít. If, however, Trump were to campaign heavily against replacing DACA, itís difficult to see how any bill becomes law.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-whole-story/
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  2. #2
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Jean dear, is it possible for you to insert the chart into my article? I've tried to figure out how to do an image insert but it doesn't work for me. It's a really great chart that we need to spread far and wide to show Congress and Trump where the voters were on immigration in the 2016 election.

    If you can, thank you so much.

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  3. #3
    Senior Member nomas's Avatar
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    Immigration drove Trump’s victory in the GOP primary

    Trump’s vote share in 2016 primaries and caucuses among voters who listed a given issue as most important
    TRUMP’S VOTE SHARE AMONG VOTERS WHOSE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE WAS …
    STATE DATE ECONOMY/JOBS TERRORISM GOVT. SPENDING IMMIGRATION
    Iowa 2/1 24% 21% 19% 44%
    New Hampshire 2/9 32 29 34 53
    South Carolina 2/20 36 31 25 51
    Nevada 2/23 48 36 37 62
    Alabama 3/1 43 44 36 61
    Arkansas 3/1 34 34 28 54
    Georgia 3/1 39 41 33 57
    Massachusetts 3/1 42 50 33 74
    Tennessee 3/1 40 44 33 50
    Texas 3/1 26 34 21 35
    Virginia 3/1 33 34 32 42
    Michigan 3/8 38 39 29 62
    Mississippi 3/8 48 43 50 56
    Florida 3/15 43 48 40 60
    Illinois 3/15 37 40 31 69
    Missouri 3/15 42 39 32 63
    North Carolina 3/15 41 35 35 59
    Ohio 3/15 33 34 32 68
    Connecticut 4/26 58 59 46 82
    Maryland 4/26 54 54 45 73
    Pennsylvania 4/26 60 53 50 73
    Indiana 5/3 56 54 43 66
    Average 41 41 35 60
    Exit polls from New York, Oklahoma, Vermont, West Virginia and Wisconsin were excluded from analysis because of insufficient sample size. Other contests did not have entrance or exit polls.
    Sources: CNN, Edison Research
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  4. #4
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Thank you, nomas!!!



    Look at those numbers folks, spread them far and wide so everyone in DC .... remembers.

    Never forget.
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  5. #5
    Senior Member nomas's Avatar
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    No problem, Judy! When I saw those numbers I wanted it posted PDQ!
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  6. #6
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    We need to do something big to get this information out to Congress and the White House. Maybe William and NumbersUSA can work together to help spread this news and get these numbers into the press and out to the public along with Congress and the White House.

    "Never forget" the forgotten men and women of the United States. We're here, we matter, we have rights, we have laws, we want all of US respected, our rights to secure borders and a country free of an illegal occupation honored and protected, and our laws fully enforced.
    Last edited by Judy; 09-13-2017 at 12:30 PM.
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  7. #7
    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    NO AMNESTY

    DON'T REWARD THE CRIMINAL ACTIONS OF MILLIONS OF ILLEGAL ALIENS

    BY GIVING THEM CITIZENSHIP


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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Judy View Post
    We need to do something big to get this information out to Congress and the White House. Maybe William and NumbersUSA can work together to help spread this news and get these numbers into the press and out to the public along with Congress and the White House.

    "Never forget" the forgotten men and women of the United States. We're here, we matter, we have rights, we have laws, we want all of US respected, our rights to secure borders and a country free of an illegal occupation honored and protected, and our laws fully enforced.
    Judy, it's a good idea.

    Just me, but I think they know the facts already. They just answer to someone other than the American people. Someone or group that has more power than we have.

    It's possible some know and don't care, because they are so bought and paid for, so bound and gagged, they know what they have to do. Some don't know because it doesn't matter to them, their are going to do the bidding of their employers - that's ot us.

    Surely this election and the aftermath is making this abundantly clear to us.

    What we need to do is continue to work through the political system, but we really, truly need to get organized and come up with solutions to fight this ourselves.

    We need to vote in the primaries and vote out anyone in office, unless they have actually worked against this. Those will be few and far between, if not non-existent.
    If we wait until the candidates are chosen by the big money, we are lost. It won't matter if we vote for a republican or against a democrat - we are voting for the same outfit.

    I'm not sure what will work against this I do know that to continue to do business with the news media, (as in cable and satellite subscriptions) it's sponsors, corporations that hire illegals and promote illegals, is suicidal.

    At first, the American didn't mind a few illegals coming here to work, they even admired them. Then they began to bring their families and that made things a little uneasy, but the news media told us about 'little Maria who made the honor roll', or 'Jose who is in the marching band', and desensitized us to the problem.

    Then we began to see them taking jobs at the lower income level. Well, that didn't bother us too much. I saw the devastation to the black communities in small towns,but most people didn't. They somehow made excuses for the companies

    They actually believed the companies just had to hire illegals, they couldn't find anyone else. Some people swallowed that and didn't ask themselves who did the jobs before the illegals came.

    Some actually championed business because we have to have business and if they have to hire illegals so stay in business - we don't mind. We just can't do enough for the corporations, even thought hey are stabbing us in the back.

    Then began the influx of illegals armed with diplomas, and took the jobs in banks, mid-management of companies, etc. Some even work in our schools, for our cities, counties, states, on military bases, etc.

    It took the American people at least 3 decades to even see the problem, and longer to be able to admit it, and still longer - as in never - to admit our politicians, including the so called republicans have aided and abetted this.

  9. #9
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Yeah, there are a lot of dirty pockets being lined with illegal immigration. It's like a Mafia.
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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Judy View Post
    Yeah, there are a lot of dirty pockets being lined with illegal immigration. It's like a Mafia.
    It's our entire government - local, state and federal, news media, business community,
    so it has to be something really big and vile.

    I think the drug business has a lot to do with it, but not just the drug cartels. Lots of drugs are coming in to this country other than from Mexico. Do some research on what country is said to be exporting the most ecstasy to the country - it might surprise you.

    Also, the prescription drug problem - the 'legal junkies' and the 'legal drug pushers' - euphemistically called doctors.

    I believe many lawmakers, and other government officials and workers are being bought and paid for.

    I believe many are being blackmailed with something pretty bad in their background. It has to be worse than just a common crime, or treason as we have seen people exposed for that and nothing is done. It has to be something really bad.

    I believe some are being threatened or their children/families are being threatened.

    When you see a politician who seems gung-ho to fix something, like illegal immigration, and suddenly becomes very mealy-mouthed and softens, or does a complete U-turn, something has turned them. It couldn't just be money.
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