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Oxford Analytica
U.S. Foreign Policies Face Setbacks
Oxford Analytica 01.04.07, 6:00 AM ET


The percentage of foreign-born residents in the United States has reached historically high levels. Some commentators fear the social consequences of this diverse population for national harmony and social capital.

How countries cope with waves of new immigrants and their own existing differences across ethnic and religious groups is a long standing political issue. Because the United States is a society built by immigrants and welcomes hundreds of thousands of new immigrants each year, this has particular resonance there. The problem of how to incorporate these new residents is becoming acute.

Two broad approaches characterize how the United States has responded to this challenge:

-- Liberal assimilation. Under this strategy newcomers are expected to become part of the new nation largely by assimilating with U.S. society and values. Historically this process is associated with "Americanization." In modern terms this is process is known as "assimilated national identity."

-- Cultural pluralism. This policy approach encourages citizens to retain an equally strong identity or loyalty to their national background and the United States. The nature and degree of this dual identity has caused considerable controversy. The modern version of this approach is "multiculturalism."

The long-term trend in U.S. politics toward "soft multiculturalism" is now being challenged on three fronts:

-- Immigration. The number of immigrants to the United States has grown massively in the last decade and a half--the 2006 total alone is estimated to exceed 1.1 million. The movement to adopt multicultural policies long predates this explosion in immigrant numbers; and as the number of immigrants has increased so have public concerns about assimilation and integration. The political salience of this issue was apparent throughout the election season preceding the November 2006 midterms, with the congressional failure to enact immigration reform legislation postponing rather than displacing the issue.

Public opinion polls find little support for granting amnesties to illegal immigrants and considerable support for toughening U.S. border security. Last year, Congress appropriated funding to extend the fence along the U.S.-Mexican border. Polls also document support for reducing immigration in order to allow immigrants to assimilate. This theme has gained prominence; one recent survey found 66% support among those sampled for "greater assimilation."

-- Security concerns. The Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York and the Pentagon stimulated a reconsideration of the politics of multiculturalism and assimilation. Tougher visa requirements and border security inspections have been adopted to meet these anxieties.

Many U.S. citizens have told pollsters that they favor greater immigration controls in order in order to avoid creating more Muslim communities.

--" Diversity challenge." An influential body of social science research contends that the "diversity challenge" large-scale immigration poses threatens community cohesion in the short run. New immigrants tend to live in familiar communities and have relatively little interaction with other groups. This pattern often produces an attitude of distrust toward the groups with whom they have little interaction.

This diversity challenge is clearly a short-term phenomenon, since the United States is historically a nation of immigrants, which has produced a strong sense of nationhood. However, the argument is that the more diverse neighborhoods become because of immigration, the more social capital erodes in these areas. The historical path to assimilation may have weakened.

There are two key comparative issues relevant to the analysis and policy response to these trends:

-- Global phenomenon. The diversity challenge is far from unique to the United States. For example, in November 2006, Dutch voters opted for parties favoring restrictions on Muslim immigration and imposing regulations on the behavior of Muslims living in the Netherlands. Growing concerns about assimilation drove this outcome.

-- Unique U.S. factors. However, the United States' capacity historically to absorb immigrants from diverse backgrounds subverts new concerns about excessive diversity.

In practice, the United States is a "post-multicultural" society, in which voluntarily chosen multiple identities coexist with citizens' loyalty to the United States. This is the way authentic assimilation now occurs. It is significant that public support for reduced immigration flows and opposition to amnesties has not generated the sort of populist politics manifest in other industrial democracies.

Anxiety about "excessive diversity" among U.S. voters coincides with historically high immigration levels, encouraging a return to traditional assimilation policy and away from multiculturalism. While this change may occur, the United States will continue to welcome substantial immigrant inflows.

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Oxford Analytica is an independent strategic-consulting firm drawing on a network of more than 1,000 scholar experts at Oxford and other leading universities and research institutions around the world. For more information, please visit www.oxan.com.