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Thread: U.S. Needs 4.6 MILLION New Apartments by 2030

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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    U.S. Needs 4.6 MILLION New Apartments by 2030

    U.S. Needs 4.6M New Apartments by 2030

    June 12, 2017


    WASHINGTON, D.C., June 12, 2017 – Delayed marriages, an aging population and international immigration are increasing a pressing need for new apartments, to the tune of 4.6 million by 2030, according to a new study commissioned by the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) and the National Apartment Association (NAA). It’s important to note that:


    • Currently, nearly 39 million people live in apartments, and the apartment industry is quickly exceeding capacity;
    • In the past five years, an average of one million new renter households were formed every year, which is a record amount; and,
    • It will take building an average of at least 325,000 new apartment homes every year to meet demand; yet, on average, just 244,000 apartments were delivered from 2012 through 2016.


    Based on research conducted by Hoyt Advisory Services and commissioned by NAA and NMHC, the data includes an estimate of the future demand for apartments in the United States, the 50 states and 50 metro areas, including the District of Columbia. For the purposes of this study, apartments are defined as rental apartments in buildings with five or more units.

    The data are available on the website www.WeAreApartments.org.


    The increased demand for apartments is due in large part to:


    • Delayed house purchases. Life events such as marriage and children are the biggest drivers of home ownership. In 1960, 44 percent of all households in the U.S. were married couples with children. Today, it’s less than one in five (19 percent), and this trend is expected to continue.
    • The aging population. People ages 65-plus will account for a large part of population growth going forward across all states. The research shows older renters are helping to drive future apartment demand, particularly in the northeast, where renters ages 55-plus will account for more than 30 percent of rental households.
    • Immigration. International immigration is assumed to account for approximately half (51 percent) of all new population growth in the U.S., with higher growth expected in the nation’s border states. This population increase will contribute to the rising demand for apartments. Research has shown that immigrants have a higher propensity to rent and typically rent for longer periods of time.


    “We’re experiencing fundamental shifts in our housing dynamics, as more people are moving away from buying houses and choosing apartments instead. More than 75 million people between 18 and 34 years old are entering the housing market, primarily as renters,” said Dr. Norm Miller, Principle at Hoyt Advisory Services and Professor of Real Estate at the University of San Diego. “But renting is not just for the younger generations anymore. Increasingly, Baby Boomers and other empty nesters are trading single-family houses for the convenience of rental apartments. In fact, more than half of the net increase in renter households over the past decade came from the 45-plus demographic.”


    “Apartment rentals are on the rise, and this trend is expected to continue at least through 2030, which means we’ll need millions of new apartments in the U.S. to meet the increased demand. The western U.S. as well as states such as Texas, Florida and North Carolina are expected to have the greatest need for new apartment housing through 2030, although all states will need more apartment housing moving forward,” said NAA Chair Cindy Clare, CPM. “The need is for all types of apartments and at all price points.”

    There will also be a growing need for renovations and improvements on existing apartment buildings, which will provide a boost in jobs (and the economy) nationwide. Hoyt’s research found that 51 percent of the apartment stock was built before 1980, which translates into 11.7 million units that could need upgrading by 2030. The older stock is highly concentrated in the northeast.

    “The growing demand for apartments – combined with the need to renovate thousands of apartment buildings across the country – will make a significant and positive impact on our nation’s economy for years to come,” explained NMHC Chair Bob DeWitt. “For frame of reference, apartments and their 39 million residents contribute $1.3 trillion to the national economy. As the industry continues to grow, so will this tremendous economic contribution.”

    Other highlights from the report include:


    • Demand is expected to be especially significant in Raleigh, N.C., with a 69.1 percent increase in new apartment units between now and 2030, Orlando, Fla. (56.7 percent), and Austin, Texas (48.7 percent).
    • Also notable, the demand in the New York City metro area will call for an additional 278,634 apartment units, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Texas (266,296 new units), and Houston, Texas (214,176 new units).
    • Propensity to rent is higher in high-growth and high-cost states.
    • Hundreds of thousands of new rental units will be needed by 2030 in states such as California, Georgia, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, New York, Texas, Virginia and Washington.


    In conjunction with the study’s release, the website www.WeAreApartments.org breaks down the data by each state and 50 key metro areas. Visitors can also use the Apartment Community Estimator – or ACE – a tool that allows users to see the trends in their state or metro area to determine the potential economic impact locally.

    http://www.nmhc.org/News/US-Needs-4-...e-with-Demand/

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    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    We have to stop this outrageous immigration.

    We need a 10 to 20 Year Moratorium on All Immigration. And we need it now.
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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    We’re Building 6 Homes for Every 10 New Households. Where Will People Live?

    The Urban Institute explains why homes can be so hard to find

    Written by Laurie Goodman and Rolf Pendall on June 17, 2016

    Since 2009, housing demand has significantly outstripped supply, quite significantly in some areas.

    In 2015, we estimate that more than a million new households were created but only 620,000 new housing units were completed, creating a shortage of 430,370 units. This gap has pushed up home prices and rents, a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future absent imminent policy changes.


    The U.S. entered the 2008 economic crisis with more housing than was needed, putting downward pressure on price. But construction hasn’t kept up since then and that surplus has been substantially eliminated :

    Single-family starts and completions are above their post-crisis lows but are still well below levels seen between 1968 and 2008. Construction on new apartments is better, but still far below historic levels.

    In 2015 there were just 968,000 multifamily housing completions; from 1968 to 2008, annual completions always exceeded a million units.


    Supply: Fewer Than 620,000 New Homes


    We added together single-family, multi-family and manufactured housing construction in 2015, then subtracted units lost to various causes. The bulk of the new supply, at 968,000 units, was single-family and multi-family construction; Manufactured housing such as mobile homes, added another 69,000 units, bringing the total to just over one million.

    To calculate the loss of existing stock we borrowed from a study by Eggers and Moumen which suggests that demolition, disaster and other events reduce the U.S. housing stock at an annual rate of .31 percent.

    There were more than 134.7 million housing units in the U.S. last year, so by that calculation we lost 418,000 of them, resulting in a net new supply of only 619,630 houses, condos and apartments .


    Demand: More Than 1 Million New Households


    There were 968,075 new households in 2014, according to the Census Bureau. Data for 2015 aren’t yet available, but we know household formation has been rising. It’s safe to assume between 1 million and 1.1 million new households were created last year.

    Supply outstripped demand leading up to the financial crisis,by as much as a million units in 2006.


    By 2009, housing supply began to slow enough that the market was able to work off the pre-crisis excess inventory. This excess inventory is now substantially gone on the national level.

    Source: Urban Institute, American Community Survey

    The Upshot

    As builders start work on more new houses, won’t supply begin to catch up to demand? Yes, at some point, but the supply-demand gap is expected to continue to grow for several years, even if household formation is flat. Chances are it won’t be. Millennials are still forming households and baby boomers are living longer and more independently than ever.

    It’s also important to remember that we don’t have a national housing market. In some areas, such as the coasts, housing supply significantly outstrips demand.

    Many areas are closer to balance, while a stubbornly large number have a long-term surplus—places like Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo, where net household formation has slowed or stopped.


    Moreover, most new construction is targets upper-income renters and owners: the lack of affordable stock is already at crisis levels.

    We need an array of federal, state, and local strategies to boost construction in undersupplied areas, provide better affordability for renters and extend –mortgage credit to would-be first-time buyers.

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/2016/06/...ople-live.html
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    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Homes are hard to find because the people looking for them don't have any money.
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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    US new home sales surge to seven-month high in February

    Thursday, 23 Mar 2017 | 10:02 AM ET Reuters

    New home sales up 6.1% in February Thursday, 23 Mar 2017 | 10:01 AM ET | 01:27


    New U.S. single-family home sales jumped to a seven-month high in February, suggesting the housing market recovery continued to gain momentum despite the challenges of high prices and tight inventories.

    The Commerce Department said on Thursday new home sales increased 6.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000 units last month, the highest level since July 2016.


    January's sales pace was revised up to 558,000 units from the previously reported 555,000 units. New home sales have now recouped a sharp drop suffered in December.



    Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for about 9.7 percent of overall home sales, gaining 0.7 percent to a rate of 565,000 units last month.

    New home sales, which are derived from building permits, are volatile on a month-to-month basis and subject to large revisions. Sales were up 12.8 percent compared to February 2016, showing the housing market's resilience.


    Sales last month were likely partially buoyed by unseasonably warm weather.


    Most economists see a limited impact on housing from higher mortgage rates because a tightening labor market is improving employment opportunities for young adults. The market for new houses is benefiting from a shortage of properties for sale.


    A report on Wednesday showed a 3.7 percent drop in sales of existing homes in February amid tight inventories and rising house prices. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently around 4.30 percent.


    Last month, new single-family homes sales slumped 21.4 percent in the Northeast region. Sales surged 30.9 percent to their highest level since November 2007 in the Midwest and increased 3.6 percent in the South.


    They jumped 7.5 percent in the West. The inventory of new homes on the market increased 1.5 percent to 266,000 units last month, still less than half of what it was at its peak during the housing boom in 2006.


    At February's sales pace it would take 5.4 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, down from 5.6 months in January.


    A six-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand. The median price for a new home fell 4.9 percent to $296,200 in February from a year ago.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/23/us-ne...of-565000.html

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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    Nearly half of all home sales all-cash deals

    . . . Another group is aging Baby Boomers, who bought homes decades ago and now are trading down to smaller homes. They have decades of accumulated equity to reinvest in a home purchase.

    A separate NAR study shows trade-down buyers rose to 29% of all buyers last year from 25% in 2012 and 23% in 2011.


    Who else pays cash for homes?
    The majority of international buyers, Yun says.


    It may be no coincidence then that in Florida, all-cash sales were more than half of all homes sold in January through March.


    “Florida is the most popular state for international buyers, who generally pay cash, as well as vacation-home buyers who frequently pay cash.

    In addition, downsizing retirees are known to pay cash from the proceeds of their homes in the north,”
    Yun says.


    Other states that stood out for all-cash sales in the first quarter were Nevada, Arizona and West Virginia, accounting for nearly four of 10 transactions, according to NAR.
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    Sacramento Approves 3,000-Home Greenbriar Community by Airport

    Sean Keeley·June 9, 2017

    Real Estate Development

    Sacramento Approves 3,000-Home Greenbriar Community by Airport

    Sacramento Approves 3,000-Home Greenbriar Community by Airport


    It’s taken almost 10 years but a 600-acre development near Sacramento International Airport has finally received city approval.

    The Sacramento City Council recently approved Greenbriar, which will bring, among other things, almost 3,000 homes to what has been farmland on the northwestern edge of Sacramento. The move is seen as a big win to help alleviate the stress of low housing inventory in the city and region. Specifically, the development will be located south of West Elkhorn Boulevard, edging up alongside Interstate 5 and Highway 99.

    Model home rendering courtesy of Integral Communities

    Developer Integral Communities plans to build 2,497 homes geared towards first-time and move-up buyers.

    They will also include 483 rental units, 200 of which will be set aside for low-income seniors. A rep for the developer told the Sacramento Bee that 94 percent of the homes will be within a half-mile of a proposed light rail station that would connect downtown Sacramento and the airport.


    Plans also call for three commercial sites within the development, including a retail hub around the light rail station. The developer is also working with Twin Rivers Unified School District to see if a K-8 school site can be added in or close to Greenbriar.



    The approved guidelines call for Greenbriar to be designed as a pedestrian-oriented community. As such, five public parks will be created, including one designed specifically for sports. Two swimming pools and a community center are also in the mix. Over 140 acres of lakes, dedicated habitat mitigation areas, and other open space are included as well.

    Integral Communities told the Sac Bee that it plans to develop Greenbriar across two phases, with work on the north section likely to begin in 2018. The second phase would begin construction “four or five years later, depending on the market.”

    https://www.neighborhoods.com/blog/s...ity-by-airport

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    US housing starts total 1.092 Million in May

    Friday, 16 Jun 2017 | 8:30 AM ET The Associated Press
    292

    May housing starts down 5.5% vs. up 3.5% est. Friday, 16 Jun 2017 | 8:30 AM ET | 01:25


    Homebuilders slowed down the pace of construction for the third straight month in May, a possible sign that the shortage of houses for sale might worsen.

    The Commerce Department says housing starts fell 5.5 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million units. This comes after a 2.7 percent monthly decline in April and a 7.7 percent drop in March. Home construction is still 3.2 percent higher year-to-date, but that increase has been too modest to address the dwindling supply of homes.


    Building permits, an indicator of upcoming construction, tumbled 4.9 percent to 1.17 million.


    The monthly declines come despite a solid job market with a relatively healthy unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. Many analysts expect the job gains to translate into more home construction.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/16/us-ho...-may-2017.html

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