ESOL Enrollment Is Higher Than Projected
Despite Drop in Students in Program, Underestimated Figure Means County Needs Extra $1.6 Million

By Ian Shapira
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 12, 2008; PW03



The Prince William County school system's enrollment in English for Speakers of Other Languages has dipped this year to 13,130 students -- a drop of 279 from last year -- but the figure is much higher than projected and will force the system to try to find about $1.6 million in its reserve funds and state coffers, school officials said.

The findings are part of the school system's first major demographic breakdown of total enrollment, which increased from 2007-08 by 1.4 percent to 73,657, preserving the school system's status as Northern Virginia's second largest.

Loudoun County is also booming, growing by 5.5 percent to 57,000 for 2008-09. Enrollment in Fairfax County, the state's largest school system, rose by 2 percent to about 169,000, and the Arlington County student body grew 4.5 percent to about 19,500, according to recently released figures.

In Prince William, once a white and rural system, Hispanics continue to be one of the fastest-growing groups in the minority-majority school system. Minorities constitute nearly 60 percent of the enrollment, with Hispanics composing about 24 percent and blacks making up 23 percent, according to the school system.

It's not clear why the number of ESOL students -- 80 percent of whom are Spanish-speaking -- has dipped. County officials attribute the decline to a range of possibilities: the proliferation of housing foreclosures, the downturn in construction or other labor work, and the recent Board of County Supervisors' crackdown on illegal immigrants. Many Prince William students have moved to Fairfax and other inner suburbs in the Washington region.

School officials said they had projected a lower number of ESOL students because of a sudden drop during the past academic year, as the county was enacting policies to curb illegal immigrant activity.

The system's original projection for ESOL students this academic year was about 12,600, but the number is about 13,130.

School officials said that it's not unusual to miss enrollment projections but that the under-projection in ESOL is unusually large -- and potentially costly. If school officials had had better estimates, the information would have been part of their budget request to county supervisors, who base the county tax rate partly on the school system's needs.

Most ESOL populations require about $3,000 per student in county funds, money that helps pay for educators to "co-teach" in classrooms or offer lessons in small groups.

"There is no guarantee we would have gotten the money, but we would have made the case to the county that our needs were greater," said David Cline, the county's associate superintendent for finance and support services. "At least they would have had that information."

Grant Lattin (Occoquan), vice chairman of the county School Board, said that no one's to blame. "I am not willing to point a finger," he said. "It's that simple. We did estimates that were based on what was happening."

School officials say they think the county is attracting its share of immigrants who speak limited English, compared with neighboring districts.

"When speaking with my colleagues in Fairfax and Loudoun, I know there's been a slowdown there, too," said Carol Bass, supervisor of Prince William's ESOL and world languages department. "In spite of the economics, the amazing thing is that we enroll a lot of new families every day."

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