Initiative targeting undocumented immigrants shy of signatures
By PAT MUIR
YAKIMA HERALD-REPUBLIC

Despite claims to the contrary by its backers, an initiative aimed at cutting off government benefits for undocumented immigrants seems unlikely to make it onto the November ballot.

Initiative 966 sponsor Bob Baker, a Mercer Island-based commercial pilot, said Tuesday that he has about 120,000 signatures on petitions supporting the measure. Assuming all the signatures are valid, that still leaves I-966 about 100,000 short of qualifying for the ballot, with a Friday deadline looming.

"They're dead in the water," said Matt Manweller, a Central Washington University political science professor who specializes in the study of initiatives and direct democracy.

The official requirement for signatures is 224,880, or 8 percent of the total votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. But successful petition campaigns typically factor in an invalid signature rate of at least 15 percent.

Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed said that means backers of I-966 likely will need about 260,000 signatures just to get the 224,880 valid ones needed.

"It's really a good idea to have quite a cushion," Reed said.

If he wants the measure on the November ballot, the deadline for Baker to turn in the signatures is 5 p.m. Friday. Supporters, however, remain hopeful. Baker, who attended a Minuteman Civil Defense Corps immigration forum in Selah on Sunday, said he's gotten about 70,000 signatures from the Yakima Valley alone and expects a big push from signature gatherers over the next two days.

About 92,000 Yakima County residents were registered to vote for the 2006 general election, according to the Yakima County Auditor's Office.

"They said they were going to go out on the Fourth of July, and then they were going to overnight (ship) them," he said, adding that he has people going to the initiative's post office box daily to retrieve more and more signed petitions from around the state.


Carl Evans, a member of Grassroots of Yakima Valley who has helped collect signatures for the initiative, said he has had no trouble getting people to support I-966.

"I probably gathered 100 pages of petitions myself," he said. "And I'll tell you, 99 percent of the people I've asked -- and told them what it's for -- they signed it."

Backers of the measure hired paid signature gatherers, as most successful initiative campaigns do, but they've still struggled to gain the needed momentum. That's because the state requirement is too high, Baker said. It doesn't mean the measure would fail if it did go to a vote in November, he said.

"Absolutely not," Baker said. "The problem we have is getting the petitions to people and getting them informed."

It is indeed a "really steep, uphill climb" to go from paying the $5 fee for filing an initiative to getting it on the ballot, Reed said. It typically requires either a highly emotional issue or paid signature-gatherers, he said.

The only initiative of 35 filed this year that is likely to make the ballot is I-960, sponsored by initiative guru Tim Eyman. That measure would make it more difficult for the state Legislature to raise taxes.

So "unless they've thousands of people with piles of signatures that they're just waiting until the last minute to send in," I-966 backers won't see their measure on the ballot this fall, Manweller said. Even if it does make the ballot and gets passed by voters, the measure likely would face legal challenges and could be overturned like a similar initiative in California in 1998, he said.

* Pat Muir can be reached at 577-7693 or at pmuir@yakimaherald.com.

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