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Thread: Yale, MIT study: 22 million, not 11 million, illegal aliens in U.S.

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  1. #1
    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    Yale, MIT study: 22 million, not 11 million, illegal aliens in U.S.

    Yale, MIT study: 22 million, not 11 million, undocumented immigrants in US

    BY RAFAEL BERNAL - 09/21/18 04:38 PM EDT 422
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    © Getty Images

    The undocumented population in the United States could be twice as large as the most commonly-used estimate, according to a research study published Friday in the scientific journal Plos One.

    The paper, led by Mohammad M. Fazel-Zarandi, a researcher at Yale and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, estimates there are 22.1 million undocumented immigrants in the United States.


    Fazel-Zarandi's study compared inflows and outflows of immigrants as well as demographic data. According to the report, the number of undocumented immigrants could be as low as 16.5 million, or as high as 29.1 million.


    “We combined these data using a demographic model that follows a very simple logic,” Edward Kaplan, a co-author of the report, told Yale Insights. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”


    Most previous estimates, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's annual American Community Survey (ACS), place the undocumented population at around 11 million people.


    The ACS is generated annually through interviews with about 3.5 million people.


    "You find it’s based on one very specific survey and possibly an approach that has some difficulties. So we went in and just took a very different approach," Jonathan Feinstein, another co-author, told Yale Insights.


    Still, the new study found similarities in growth patterns of the undocumented population to the ACS reports of the past two decades.


    Most immigration researchers have reported a plateau in growth of that population since 2007, spurred mainly by the decrease in Mexican illegal immigration to the United States.


    The reduction in illegal crossings by Mexican citizens coincided with an increase in illegal immigration from Central America and Asia. But the overall undocumented population has leveled off, and possibly slightly decreased.


    The Pew Research Center, which provides regular updates on immigration statistics -- based in part on ACS numbers -- estimated last year that the undocumented population dropped to 11.3 million from a high of 12.2 million.


    The Yale study, which goes as far back as 1990, found the same upward and downward trajectory as the ACS studies, with the undocumented population ballooning through the 1990s and plateauing after 2007.


    "“The trajectory is the same. We see the same patterns happening, but they’re just understating the actual number of people who have made it here,” said Fazel‐Zarandi.


    The researchers emphasized the new number does not imply a growth in illegal immigration but a longstanding miscount of existing undocumented immigrants.


    "We wouldn’t want people to walk away from this research thinking that suddenly there’s a large influx happening now,” said Feinstein. “It’s really something that happened in the past and maybe was not properly counted or documented.”


    The researchers also noted if the undocumented population is twice as high as previous estimates, that means the incidence of criminality among undocumented immigrants is half as high as previously reported.


    "You have the same number of crimes but now spread over twice as many people as was believed before, which right away means that the crime rate among undocumented immigrants is essentially half whatever was previously believed," said Kaplan.

    https://thehill.com/latino/407848-ya...migrants-in-us

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    NO AMNESTY

    Don't reward the criminal actions of millions of illegal aliens by giving them citizenship.


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  2. #2
    Senior Member Beezer's Avatar
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    Cut off the freebies... MAKE them self deport!

    E-verify school, healthcare, drivers license, bank accounts, voting, welfare, food stamps, housing, jobs!

    DO NOT REWARD...DEPORT THEM ALL!
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  3. #3
    Senior Member lorrie's Avatar
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    Both numbers are wrong.

    They have been saying 11 million for 20 years. If you look at the number of borders crosser per day that are caught,
    this number makes no logical sense.

    The number of illegals living in the U.S. is much closer to 75 million to 125 million.


    Judy, we talked about this like 2 years ago.... remember?
    Beezer, southBronx and Judy like this.


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  4. #4
    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    Ivy League Study: Illegal Population is 22 Million, Double Estb. Estimate
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    AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana21 Sep 2018609

    The population of illegal migrants is roughly 22 million, or twice the establishment estimate of 11 million, say three professors from Yale University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

    The shocking estimate will force establishment politicians and pro-migration advocates to recalculate the estimated impact of the huge illegal population on wages and salaries, on crime rates, welfare consumption, rental and real-estate prices, productivity rates, and the distribution of job-creating investment funds to coastal vs. heartland states.

    The higher illegal population estimate helps explain why Americans’ wages and salaries have risen so little amid apparently record-low unemployment rates, and it also undercuts companies’ loud demands for yet more immigration of foreign workers, consumers, and renters.


    The population estimate also raises the political and economic stakes of any amnesty legislation. In 2014, public opposition blocked the bipartisan, establishment, media-boosted Gang of Eight bill, which claimed to offer an amnesty to just 11 million migrants. Currently, advocates for a ‘Dream Act’ amnesty claim it will provide green cards to roughly 3 million sons and daughters of illegal immigrants.


    The new estimate also bolsters President Donald Trump’s demand that reluctant GOP and hostile Democratic legislators fund a border wall.

    “Our purpose is to provide better information,” said Jonathan Feinstein, an economics professor at Yale. In a video statement, he defended the estimate from likely critics, saying it is an expert analysis, not a political project:

    This paper is not oriented towards politics or policy.

    I want to be very clear. This paper is about coming up with a better estimate of an important number, and we are really trying in this paper to keep away from making any statements about how that could or should be used. It is just a paper to help the debate be organized around some better information, which in my opinion is a good thing to do. I think the debate should always be centered around the best information we can develop.

    The academics expected their techniques to show the population is smaller than the consensus estimate of 11.3 million. “Our original idea was just to do a sanity check on the existing number,” said Edward Kaplan, operations research professor at Yale. “Instead of a number which was smaller, we got a number that was 50 percent higher. That caused us to scratch our heads.”



    Operations research is a skill that extracts accurate estimates from scraps of data. It began in World War II when academics were enlisted to help track Nazi U-boats and weapons-production. For example, the academics used scraps of information to conclude that the Nazis produced 270 Panther tanks in February 1944. After the war, captured factory data showed the production of 276 Panthers in that month.


    “We have a conservative estimate that the number is at least 16.7 million,” said Edward Kaplan, an operations research professor at Yale. The study used “over 1 million scenarios accounting for all of the variability in the various parameters that we need for this model [and] on average, we’re estimating something like 22 million undocumented immigrants in the United States.”


    The study says:
    The figure [below] also shows our conservative estimate of 16.7 million in Red, and the most widely accepted estimate heretofore of 11.3 million in Blue on the far left. We note that this last estimate is for 2015, but should be comparable since both the estimates based on the survey approach and our modeling approach indicate that the number of undocumented immigrants has remained relatively constant in recent years. Finally, the mean estimate of 22.1 million is shown in black in the center of the distribution.



    The new estimate uses new sources of data, such as the fingerprints of migrants caught at the Mexican border, said Mohammad Fazel‐Zarandi, a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management. In contrast, the current estimate of 11.3 million is based on the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey. “It’s been the only method used for the last three decades,” says Fazel‐Zarandi.


    The illegal population is higher than expected because more migrants crowded into the United States during the cheap-labor policies of Presidents’ George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush, the researchers said.


    The inflow leveled off in 2008 once the economy crashed when millions of new migrants and poor Americans were unable to pay their rising mortgage costs.


    The existing population of illegals tends to decline as many die of natural causes, or return home, or get “Adjustment of Status” to become legal residents. But the population is being kept level because new migrants — especially foreigners who overstay their visas or who migrate from Central America — offset the natural decline.


    The Yale study goes up to 2016, and so does not offer 2017 and 2018 numbers. Many new migrants are overstaying their visas and sneaking across the borders, but President Donald Trump has tightened border defenses against overstays and border-crossers.


    The Yale study complements the Census Bureau’s new estimate of the nation’s population and workforce. The bureau concluded the nation has been enlarged by 44.5 million legal or illegal immigrants, plus 17 million children of legal immigrants. Together, the new estimates conclude that the nation’s has a record-breaking foreign-born population of 55 million migrants.


    That number is roughly 16.9 percent of the population, or roughly one person six living in the United States.

    Protestors wave American, Mexican and Guatemalan flags as thousands march at an immigration rally in Homestead, Fla. May 1, 2006. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

    The study does not examine the number of illegal white-collar workers. That calculation is difficult because academics have not even counted the number of resident white-collar visa-workers, such as L-1 and H-1B visa holders. Breitbart News estimates that U.S. companies employ roughly 1.5 million white-collar visa workers in jobs that are sought by U.S. college graduates.

    Four million young Americans will join the workforce this year, but the federal government will also import 1.1 million legal immigrants, and allows an army of at least 2 million blue-collar and white-collar visa-workers to work U.S. jobs, alongside asylum-claiming migrants and illegal aliens.


    Overall, the Washington-imposed economic policy of economic growth via immigration shifts wealth from young people towards older people by flooding the market with cheap white-collar and blue-collar foreign labor.


    That flood of outside labor spikes profits and Wall Street values by cutting salaries for manual and skilled labor offered by blue-collar and white-collar employees.

    The policy also drives up real estate prices, widens wealth-gaps, reduces high-tech investment, increases state and local tax burdens, hurts kids’ schools and college education, pushes Americans away from high-tech careers, and sidelines at least 5 million marginalized Americans and their families, including many who are now struggling with opioid addictions.

    Immigration also pulls investment and wealth away from heartland states because investment flows towards the large immigrant populations living in the coastal states.

    https://www.breitbart.com/big-govern...estb-estimate/

    NO AMNESTY

    Don't reward the criminal actions of millions of illegal aliens by giving them citizenship.


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  5. #5
    Senior Member stoptheinvaders's Avatar
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    Try doubling that number again and you will be getting closer.
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  6. #6
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lorrie View Post
    Both numbers are wrong.

    They have been saying 11 million for 20 years. If you look at the number of borders crosser per day that are caught,
    this number makes no logical sense.

    The number of illegals living in the U.S. is much closer to 75 million to 125 million.


    Judy, we talked about this like 2 years ago.... remember?
    I sure do, Lorrie. They been lying about the numbers for at least 15 years. Almost no one has been deported, and millions waltz in every year. I know the number is at least over 30 million plus all their anchor babies. It's a tragedy, a national disgrace, and proof of the dishonesty and deception prevalent in our government and "institutions". Nice to see MIT at least trying to document, Bear Stearns tried to and was so shocked, they hedged in 2005 at "20 million or more" ... 13 years ago and they've been pouring in every single day since.
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  7. #7
    Administrator ALIPAC's Avatar
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    Woop there it is! 20+ million illegal aliens.
    Captainron, Beezer, Judy and 1 others like this.
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  8. #8
    Administrator Jean's Avatar
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    So about 17% of our population are illegal aliens. Our immigration system is beyond broken, it's totally out of control, a big joke. Amazing they are finally admitting this.
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