Fox News Polls: GOP Poised to Gain or Hold Senate Seats in Key States
By Chris Stirewalt

Published October 05, 2010
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Democrats have a mountain to climb in West Virginia.

The latest Fox News battleground state surveys of five key states shows Republicans in good position to gain two seats and hold two seats left open by GOP retirements. Democrats, meanwhile, are well-positioned to hold only one.

The polls in West Virginia, Connecticut, Nevada, Missouri and Ohio show varying degrees of success for Democrats in dealing with low approval ratings for President Obama and his policies.

In West Virginia, even a popular governor cannot escape the gravity of Obama's bad numbers, while in Connecticut lukewarm ratings for Obama seem to do little harm to the well-known Democratic attorney general's Senate bid.

The latest surveys were conducted on Oct. 2 by Pulse Opinion Research for Fox News. Each survey included 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3 points.

The surveys will be conducted weekly until the election.

Obama Angst Pulls West Virginia Into GOP Column

Deep resistance to Obama's agenda has put a West Virginia Senate seat once thought to be safe territory for Democrats in serious jeopardy.

A new Fox News battleground state poll on the race for the seat held by the late Sen. Robert Byrd for 51 years shows Republican businessman John Raese with a 5-point lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin among likely voters -- 48 percent to 43 percent.

In what may be the year’s clearest case of Obama’s downward pull on his party’s candidates, Manchin gets high marks from voters – 66 percent approved of his job performance and 65 percent had a positive view of him personally -- but they still prefer Raese.

The survey was conducted before new reports that the head of the state’s Democratic Party, Manchin’s former chief of staff and business partner Larry Puccio, is under scrutiny by federal investigators for state contracts obtained under Manchin.

Manchin’s most obvious problem is Obama’s 29 percent approval rating in the state. Only 12 percent believe that Obama’s policies have helped the state economically, while 55 percent in the coal-rich state believe they have hurt. That is borne out in the slim 28 percent of respondents who supported a plan to address global warming like the one Obama favors.

Raese has hit Manchin hard for his support of the president’s national health care law and Manchin has played up his opposition to certain aspects of it and is now calling for the legislation to be repealed. One can see why. Sixty three percent of respondents favored repealing the legislation.

Even among Manchin supporters, 18 percent still said they hoped their vote would register their dissatisfaction with the Obama agenda. Raese drew a quarter of all Democrats and 54 percent of independents.

Also worrisome for Manchin: Of the 6 percent still undecided in the race, more than two thirds hoped their eventual decision would register their disapproval for Obama.

West Virginia also showed some of the strongest support for the Tea Party movement of any of the states surveyed so far in the Fox News battleground poll: 53 percent were supportive, including 31 who were strongly behind the movement. Only 30 percent were opposed.


McMahon Still Trailing in Connecticut

Republican hopes to pick up a Democratic Senate seat in Connecticut face a tough reality on the ground.

Democrat Richard Blumenthal holds a 10-point lead over Republican Linda McMahon in a new Fox News battleground poll in the race to replace retiring Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT).

Blumenthal -- elected five times as attorney general -- took 52 percent support compared to 42 percent for McMahon, who built a professional wrestling empire with her husband, Vince. The survey was taken before the fiery first debate between the two, moderated by "Special Report" anchor Bret Baier, on Monday night.

Blumenthal was helped by relatively strong support for President Obama. Forty eight percent supported the job he was doing as president and only a slim plurality favored repealing Obama’s national health care law. Forty seven percent were in favor of repeal and 43 percent were opposed – the best showing for the plan in any of this week’s surveys.

In the race for governor, Democrat Dan Malloy, the longtime mayor of Stamford, holds a 6-point edge over Republican Tom Foley, a businessman who served as an envoy to Iraq and an ambassador to Ireland under George W. Bush.

Other pollsters had shown McMahon within striking distance of Blumenthal, but here, voters seem to have deep reservations about her. Fifty one percent of respondents said held an unfavorable view of McMahon, compared to 37 percent who felt the same way about Blumenthal.

And despite Blumenthal’s exaggerations about his military service, 48 percent of respondents said they found him honest and trustworthy, compared to 36 percent who felt the same way about McMahon.


Reid on the Ropes in Nevada

Republican Sharron Angle seems to be solidifying her support in her bid to unseat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada.

In the latest Fox News battleground state poll of likely voters, Angle drew 49 percent to Reid’s 46 percent. As voters make up their mind with four weeks to go until Election Day, Angle seems to have the edge.

In the first Fox battleground poll in the Silver State four weeks ago, 10 percent of respondents were either unsure, in favor of a minor party candidate or, as state law allows in Nevada, planning to vote for "none of these candidates."

In this week's poll, those three categories add up to 5 percent. Over the same period, Angle’s overall vote percentage went from 45 percent to 49 percent.

Democratic strategists hope to prevent an Angle win by driving up her unfavorable ratings and pushing voters to choose a minor party candidate or “none of these.â€