Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 44%, Democrats 37%

Monday, May 16, 2011
Many more links at the post: only Illegal Immigration links listed

Republicans now hold a seven-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending May 15, 2011. That’s up from the four-point lead Republicans held for the last two weeks.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 37% would choose the Democrat instead. Support for the Republican candidate is up three points from last week, while the support for the Democrat is down one.

The GOP has been consistently ahead on the Generic Ballot since June 2009, leading by as much as 12 points and as little as two. The week before Election Day last November, support for Republicans peaked at 51%, the highest level of support either party has enjoyed in the last two years, but GOP support tapered off after that. Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot when Barack Obama took office as president in late January 2009, but their support has generally remained in the mid- to upper 30s since June of that year.

Republicans now lead by 15 points among men but run basically even with Democrats among women. The GOP holds an 11-point lead among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties.

Results for this survey are compiled on a full-week basis, and crosstabs for full-week results and Generic Ballot trends are available for Platinum Members only.

The Generic Ballot results were much different during the 2006 and 2008 campaign cycles when Democrats regularly had large leads heading into those elections. The two parties were very close through the spring of 2009, but around the time Democrats began their campaign for health care reform that June, Republicans pulled ahead for good.

But voters are fairly evenly divided over whether they want to give Obama a second term in the White House. In a match up against a generic Republican candidate, the president earns 45% support to the generic Republican’s 43%.

A majority of voters continue to support repeal of the national health care law and believe it will increase the federal deficit.

New legislation being considered by the House would stop all federal funding for cities that give sanctuary to illegal immigrants, and most voters like the idea. But very few believe Congress is likely to pass such a measure. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... ary_cities

[b]President Obama on Tuesday encouraged Congress to move forward on immigration reform, saying his administration has “strengthened border security beyond what many believed was possible.â€