Thread: Michigan Exit Polls Show Challenges for McCain

Michigan Exit Polls Show Challenges for McCain
Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Mitt Romney won a solid victory in Michigan’s Primary on Tuesday night to keep his hopes of winning the nomination alive. Some of the reasons for his victory were based upon local circumstances, in particular his long-standing family ties to the Wolverine State. But, that does not diminish his success. Huckabee’s victory in Iowa and McCain’s in New Hampshire were also based partially on local circumstances. In fact, one message from Romney’s victory is that there may not be a candidate with sufficient national strength at this time to overcome local circumstances.

At the same time, the data clearly highlights the challenges facing John McCain.

McCain lost soundly among registered Republicans--41% for Romney, 27% for McCain.

He also lost among voters who considered the economy as the top issue—Romney 42% McCain 29%. He fared no better among those who said illegal immigration is the top issue—Romney 39% McCain 18%.

Those are two issues on which the Republican base is united and McCain has struggled for some time. The data suggests that McCain could be quite vulnerable as voters are reminded of his positions on those issues. The economy may be looming more important as consumer confidence tumbles to the lowest levels of the post-9/11 era. Data released today by Rasmussen Reports shows that 73% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse.

As expected, the Arizona Senator did win among those consider the War in Iraq the top issue—McCain 41% Romney 31%. However, in what might be an especially chilling detail for the McCain camp, among those who considered the broader War on Terror as most important McCain and Romney were tied at 31%(See exit poll data).

Overall, the results from Michigan may have moved the Republican race back to the point where it is easy to show why each of the leading candidates is likely to lose the nomination but difficult to see which one has a clear shot at victory. The latest polling from Florida may be a sign of the larger race—four candidates essentially tied for the lead and just 45% of voters committed to sticking with their candidate.

Next up for the GOP is South Carolina. The latest polling in that state showed McCain ahead following his bounce from New Hampshire. However, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson are close enough to compete in the final days of the race. Rasmussen Reports will be conducting new polling in South Carolina tonight (Wednesday).

However, even before the final votes were counted in Michigan, it was clear the dynamics of the race had shifted once again. By the time Romney was declared the winner on Tuesday night, Rasmussen Markets data showed that expectations for McCain to win the nomination were way down. The market assessment of his chances in South Carolina and Florida also declined.

It will be interesting to watch the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll in the coming days. Following New Hampshire, McCain and Huckabee were starting to pull away from the field. Will Michigan reverse that trend? Only time will tell.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... for_mccain

Election 2008: Florida Republican Primary
Florida Republican Presidential Primary: Four-Way Tie
Monday, January 14, 2008

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds four candidates essentially tied for the lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. It’s McCain 19%, Giuliani 18%, Romney 18%, and Huckabee 17%. Fred Thompson is a few points off the pace at 11% while Ron Paul is a distant sixth with support from 5% of Likely Primary Voters.

The race in Florida is very fluid. Just 45% of Likely Primary Voters say they are “certainâ€

And of the top four candidates in Florida, only one is against amnesty and did something against IAs in the past: Mitt Romney.

Mitt I'm prayin for ya boy...It is my sincere desire that you POUND the crap out of McCain and Hucky I want to see these traitors with their tails between their legs headed for Mexico...