Thread: Politican Bulletin, Campaign News and Latest polls

Monday, January 7, 2008
CAMPAIGN NEWS

Obama, McCain Lead In 8 Of 10 NH Polls

On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, a slew of polls show confirm both parties' races are too close to call. On the Democratic side, Sen. Barack Obama is winning in 8 of 10 surveys over Sen. Hillary Clinton. Similarly, Sen. John McCain holds a lead in 8 of the 10 surveys over Mitt Romney, who is leading in the other two. John Edwards continues to draw about one-fifth of Democratic support, while among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, Rep. Ron Paul, and Mike Huckabee are clustered together at around 10 percent each. The New Hampshire Union Leader says the poll are "yo-yoing" as Tuesday's vote nears, offering the "chance of a photo finish" on both sides. USA Today says the "phenomenal rise" of Obama and the resurgence of McCain have made the contests too close for comfort for former frontrunners Clinton and Romney. The AP says the "wide open and intense" Republican race "has gotten ever tighter." The New York Post, in a story covering the latest polls that show Obama apparently moving into the lead in New Hampshire, reports, "No matter which poll, the news is not good for Clinton, the once-strong front-runner who now is looking for a New Hampshire win to help stem her campaign's slide since a disappointing third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses."

An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Democratic voters conducted January 5-6 has Obama at 39%, Clinton 28%, John Edwards 22%, Gov. Bill Richardson 4%, Mike Gravel 2%, and Rep. Dennis Kucinich 2%. Among 600 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 35%, Romney 27%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Rudy Giuliani 10%, Rep. Ron Paul 7%, Rep. Duncan Hunter 2%, Fred Thompson 2%, and Alan Keyes 1%.

A CNN /WMUR poll of 268 likely Democratic voters conducted January 5-6 has Obama at 39%, followed by Clinton, 29%; Edwards, 16%; and Richardson, 7%. Among 341 likely Republican voters, McCain leads with 32%, followed by Romney, 26%; Huckabee, 14%; Giuliani, 11%; and Paul, 10%.

A McClatchy /MSNBC poll of 400 likely Democratic voters conducted January 2-4 has Obama at 33%, followed by Clinton, 31%; Edwards, 17%; and Richardson, 7%. Among 400 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 32%, followed by Romney, 24%; Huckabee, 12%; Giuliani, 9%; and Paul, 8%.

A Rasmussen automated poll of 1,240 likely Democratic voters conducted January 4-5 has Obama at 39%, followed by Clinton, 27%; Edwards, 18%; and Richardson, 8%. Among 1,102 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 32%, Romney, 30%; Huckabee, 11%; Paul, 11%; and Giuliani, 9%.

A Suffolk University /7News poll of 500 likely Democratic voters conducted January 4-5 has Clinton at 35%; Obama, 33%; Edwards, 14%; and Richardson, 5%. Among 500 likely Republican voters, Romney is at 30%, followed by McCain, 27%; Giuliani, 10%; Paul, 9%; and Huckabee, 7%.

A USA Today/Gallup poll of 778 likely Democratic voters conducted January 4-6 has Obama at 41%, followed by Clinton, 28%; Edwards, 19%; and Richardson, 6%. Among 776 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 34%; Romney, 30%; Huckabee, 13%; Giuliani, 8%; and Paul, 8%.

A Zogby poll of 844 likely Democratic voters conducted January 2-6 has Clinton at 31%, followed by Obama, 30%; Edwards, 20%; and Richardson, 7%. Among 836 likely Republican voters, Romney is at 32%, McCain, 31%; Huckabee, 12%; Giuliani, 7%; and Paul, 6%.

A Franklin Pierce University /WBZ-TV poll of 403 likely Democratic primary voters shows Obama leading with 34%, followed by Clinton with 31% and Edwards with 20%. On the GOP side, the survey of 409 likely GOP primary voters shows McCain leading with 38%, followed by Romney, 29%; Huckabee, 9%; Giuliani, 8%; and Paul, 7%. The poll was conducted from January 4-6.

A Strategic Vision poll shows Obama leading with 38%, followed by Clinton, 29%; Edwards, 19%; and Richardson, 7%. On the GOP side, McCain leads with 35%, followed by Romney, 27%; Huckabee, 13%; Giuliani, 8%; and Paul, 7%. The poll surveyed 600 likely Democratic primary goers and 600 likely GOP primary goers from January 4-6.

A Concord Monitor /Research 2000 poll shows Obama leading with 34%, followed by Clinton with 33% and Edwards with 23%. On the GOP side, McCain leads with 35%, followed by Romney with 29%. The poll surveyed 400 likely Democratic primary goers and 400 likely GOP primary goers from January 4-5.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/b ... 080107.htm

I read this just moments ago:

http://drudgereport.com/flashhn.htm

TALK OF HILLARY EXIT ENGULFS CAMPAIGNS
Mon Jan 07 2008 09:46:28 ET

Facing a double-digit defeat in New Hampshire, a sudden collapse in national polls and an expected fund-raising drought, Senator Hillary Clinton is preparing for a tough decision: Does she get out of the race? And when?!

"She can't take multiple double-digit losses in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada," laments one top campaign insider to the DRUDGE REPORT. "If she gets too badly embarrassed, it will really harm her. She doesn't want the Clinton brand to be damaged with back-to-back-to-back defeats."

Meanwhile, Democrat hopeful John Edwards has confided to senior staff that he is staying in the race because Hillary "could soon be out."

"Her money is going to dry up," Edwards confided, a top source said Monday morning.

MORE

Key players in Clinton's inner circle are said to be split. James Carville is urging her to fight it out through at least February and Super Tuesday, where she has a shot at thwarting Barack Obama in a big state.

"She did not work this hard to get out after one state! All this talk is nonsense," said one top adviser.

But others close to the former first lady now see no possible road to victory, sources claim.

Developing...

[The dramatic reversal of fortunes has left the media establishment stunned and racing to keep up with fast-moving changes.

In its final poll before Iowa, CNN showed Clinton with a two-point lead over Obama. Editorial decisions were being made based on an understanding the Democratic primary race would be close, explained a network executive.]

If I were a gambling sorta guy, I'd go with the Zogby poll (by what I've noticed, they are more correct more of the time than almost all the others...):

A Zogby poll of 844 likely Democratic voters conducted January 2-6 has Clinton at 31%, followed by Obama, 30%; Edwards, 20%; and Richardson, 7%. Among 836 likely Republican voters, Romney is at 32%, McCain, 31%; Huckabee, 12%; Giuliani, 7%; and Paul, 6%.