Thread: Analysis: Obama has advantage in head-to-head with McCain

Analysis: Obama has advantage in head-to-head with McCain

From Bill Schneider
CNN Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. John McCain became the likely Republican nominee after Mitt Romney decided to suspend his campaign Thursday. Now, the Democrats are debating who would do better against the Arizona Republican.

Two polls this month have asked registered voters nationwide how they would vote if the choice were between McCain and Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton.

A CNN poll, conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation February 1-3, shows Clinton three points ahead of McCain, 50 percent to 47 percent. That's within the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points, meaning that the race is statistically tied..

A Time magazine poll, conducted February 1-4, also shows a dead heat between Clinton and McCain. Each was backed by 46 percent of those polled.

Sen. Barack Obama believes he can do better, arguing "I've got appeal that goes beyond our party."

In the CNN poll, Obama leads McCain by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent. That's outside the margin of error, meaning that Obama has the lead.

And in the Time poll, Obama leads McCain by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent -- a lead also outside of the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points.

In both polls, Obama looks stronger than Clinton. Why?

Obama's explanation: "I think there is no doubt that she has higher negatives than any of the remaining Democratic candidates. That's just a fact, and there are some who will not vote for her."

That was three weeks ago. Now, only two Democratic candidates remain.

Clinton does have higher negatives than Obama -- and McCain. Forty-four percent of the public say they don't like Clinton, compared with 36 percent who don't like McCain and 31 percent who don't like Obama, according to the CNN poll conducted February 1-3.

Why does Obama do better against McCain than Clinton? Obama does do a little better than Clinton with independents and Republicans.

But the big difference is men: Men give McCain an 18-point lead over Clinton, 57 percent to 39 percent, according to the CNN poll. The margin of error for that question was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

But if McCain and Obama went head to head, McCain's lead among men shrinks to three, 49 percent to 46 percent -- statistically a tie.

Women, on the other hand, vote for either Clinton or Obama by similar margins.

Some Democrats may be worried about how Obama will fare with white voters. Whites give McCain a 15-point lead over Clinton, (56 percent for McCain, 41 percent for Clinton).

But Obama actually fares better than Clinton with white voters. McCain still leads, but by a smaller margin, (52 to 43 percent).

Obama argues that he can reach across party lines. And he does do a little better than Clinton with Independents and Republicans, at least in these polls.

But the big difference is that Clinton doesn't draw very well with men. Obama does.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/08/ ... index.html

Obama will have hard time with hispanics(mccain will pander to them,probably privatly to their leaders through juan hernandez) and white voters who will not admit to pollsters they are not going to vote for a black-so it will be closer than that -media only points out race factors when it hurts whoever they are against -

What a terrible choice we'll be faced with in Nov.

An inexperienced, extreme left wing telegenic senator (the most liberal senator in the US Senate) or Hillary ( ) v. McCain, an aging, cranky, liberal Republican senator.

Thanks Huckster for splitting the conservative vote and giving us this choice.

The libs think that Obama is the next coming of JFK. The worst thing that could happen, is for Obama to get the Democrat nomination. McCain would get his ass handed to him in a landslide loss. At least with Hillary and all the ill will out there against her, even McCain would stand a chance.

Originally Posted by Populist

What a terrible choice we'll be faced with in Nov.

An inexperienced, extreme left wing telegenic senator (the most liberal senator in the US Senate) or Hillary ( ) v. McCain, an aging, cranky, liberal Republican senator.

Thanks Huckster for splitting the conservative vote and giving us this choice.

I agree with you and he called himself a christian? Huckabee knew that by staying in the race he was taking votes from Mitt but he did it anyway. A lot of people in this forum do not like Mitt Romney, but you know, he was a better candidate than McCain and Huckabee together.

Here's my probabilities on the current crop of candidates becoming Prez:

Obama: %46
Clinton: %45
[Greater than 90% chance next Prez will be Dem]

McCain: 5%
Huckabee: 3%
Paul: 1%
[Boosh has done too much damage for the Repubs to field a candidate and expect a favorable reception by the general public - especially true for Independents, non-affiliated and/or third-party voters]

Sorry. I don't intend to ruin anybody's day here. Just want to recognize the reality for what it is, and be able to work to get the most / best results possible for our efforts.

There is talk here in Utah that with McCain on the ticket and if Obama is on the ticket with him, their vote is going to Obama. I have heard fresh voice for America and also McCain would legalize illegals too. They would rather vote Democrat then accept McCain. He just has been a two timer and everyone has the feeling that he can't be trusted.
He is with Bush on everything and no one wants another Bush.

Originally Posted by PhredE

Here's my probabilities on the current crop of candidates becoming Prez:

Obama: %46
Clinton: %45
[Greater than 90% chance next Prez will be Dem]

McCain: 5%
Huckabee: 3%
Paul: 1%
[Boosh has done too much damage for the Repubs to field a candidate and expect a favorable reception by the general public - especially true for Independents, non-affiliated and/or third-party voters]

Sorry. I don't intend to ruin anybody's day here. Just want to recognize the reality for what it is, and be able to work to get the most / best results possible for our efforts.

Sad, but true, Phred. Good analysis, as always.

Thanks Z. Yeah, it's pretty sad. But all the indicators floating around out in public space suggest the whole Prez election process is going to be a 'post-Boosh' commentary of sorts.