Thread: Analysis: U.S. demography threatens the GOP

Analysis: U.S. demography threatens the GOP
by Chuck Raasch - Jun. 23, 2009 12:48 PM
Gannett National Writer

WASHINGTON - Demography is not destiny, or so the Republicans had better hope.

In the aftermath of President Barack Obama's biggest Democratic win in 44 years, population and political trends threaten the future of the Grand Old Party.

Obama has assembled what Atlantic Media political director Ron Brownstein calls a "coalition of the ascendant" - the fastest-growing racial, ethnic and ideological groups in the country. They include Hispanic voters, suburbanites and younger voters.
The one growth area for Republicans has been among what the Center for American Progress' Ruy Teixeira calls the "deeply rural." But they are only about one in 16 voters and are getting disproportionately smaller as populations concentrate in cities and suburbs.

No trend lines are set in stone. Policy fights - over health care, government spending and more - will help determine if the political trends persist. And Republicans may have openings if the president overreaches or missteps.

But the Republicans' challenges are more daunting because the party's image - White, increasingly Southern and disproportionately rural - does not look like the future of the country.

Hispanic growth

Hispanics are not only increasingly voting Democrat, but also growing faster than any other demographic group.

Obama won 67 percent of Latino voters, up 14 points from John Kerry in 2004.

Republican opposition to Obama's pick for a seat on the Supreme Court, Sonia Sotomayor, who would be the first Hispanic on the court, could further alienate Hispanic voters.

William Frey, senior fellow for the Brookings Institution's metropolitan policy program, said 2 million more Blacks and 2 million more Hispanics voted in 2008 than did in 2004.

Last year, 66 percent of the electorate was White, 15 percent Hispanic, 14 percent Black, and 5 percent Asian. Republican presidential candidate John McCain won 57 percent of White men and 53 percent of White women, according to exit polls. But Obama won all other groups by huge margins.

If current trends hold, demographers expect the United States in 2050 to be 46 percent White, 30 percent Hispanic, 15 percent Black, and 9 percent Asian.

Brownstein warned that Republicans risk becoming "dangerously monochromatic" unless they "chip away" at the growing demographic groups. That might force policy changes on issues like immigration reform.

These racial and ethnic trends have already moved formerly solid GOP states into the tossup or Democrat category.

In Florida, an influx of Hispanics along the central Interstate 4 corridor through Orlando has helped Democrats. Solidly Republican Texas could become more fertile Democratic territory as younger voters and Hispanic immigrants move into the voting-age population.

Changing suburbs

In old and new suburbs, Democrats have capitalized on an influx of immigrants and a shifting issues set.

George W. Bush won re-election in 2004 by targeting suburban and exurban voters on personal and national security. But as security worries became economic worries, Democrats reclaimed these population growth centers.

Suburbs delivered the once-red Southern states of North Carolina and Virginia to Obama. Some predict Republican-leaning Georgia will be the next Southern shifter.

Youth vote

Younger voters went 2-1 for Obama over McCain, but Obama would have won the election even if no one under age 29 voted, according to the Pew Research Center's Scott Keeter. He said these "millennial" voters provided the margin of victory for Obama only in North Carolina and Indiana.

"This is really not an Obama phenomena," Keeter said. "Young voters were John Kerry's best age group in 2004."

In 2000, 74 percent of voters under age 29 were White, but in 2008, 62 percent were. Keeter said millennials are less religious than other generations and are "the least socially conservative and seem to be less so over time."

They are also both pro-government and pro-business, and some analysts believe that as they age, millennials will be receptive to politicians who can make government more efficient.

They're also accustomed to choice in all aspects of their lives. If coming health care reforms are seen as restricting choice, Obama could face defections.


http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/ ... 23-ON.html

ama won 67 percent of Latino voters, up 14 points from John Kerry in 2004.

Obama won 96% of black voters but has since thrown them under the bus with his insistence on amnesty.

Originally Posted by ReggieMay

Obama won 96% of black voters but has since thrown them under the bus with his insistence on amnesty.

Sounds like a constituency the GOP could win back. Black Americans voted solidly Republican until the 1960s.

In the aftermath of President Barack Obama's biggest Democratic win in 44 years, population and political trends threaten the future of the Grand Old Party.

To heck with the "the future of the Grand Old Party," if these commies keep going we will not have a country left fit for a "Grand Old Party." Then again, perhaps all is right on course.

The commies got what they wanted, power, the banks got what they wanted, lots of money, and the "Grand Old Party" gets to sit back and blame everything on the commies while at the same time begging the public for forgiveness of their past sins.

Starting to look like a decade old brain fart cutting loose. Oops, we broke wind,........ again.

Is it really that hard being consistently conservitive? Contrast that to the commies,....they have no problem remaining true to their communistic beliefs, day in and day out, no brain farts there.

Hispanic growth

Hispanics are not only increasingly voting Democrat, but also growing faster than any other demographic group.

Perhaps Americans of Hispanic decent should talk (or perhaps just take a good look) more with the Black community and ask what the commies have done for them. If slavery is their wish they will be well served with the Dems and their marxist ways all the while helping to bury freedom and liberty for all.

"Think of the press as a great keyboard on which the government can play." Joseph Goebbles