November 19th, 2009

AR Sen Poll: Lincoln Barely Ahead, HC Vote Pivotal

A new Zogby poll for the League of American Voters, a group which opposes the health care legislation, shows Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln leading her most likely general election opponent, Republican Gilbert Baker, by just two points, 41 to 39, with 18 percent undecided.

The poll then proceded to probe voter opinions on health care. Fifty-four percent were opposed to "the healthcare bill proposed by President Obama and now making its way through Congress." Thirty-eight percent said they would be "much less likely" to vote for Blanche Lincoln if they knew she supported the legislation.

Zogby then re-asked the general election question this way:

Knowing that Lincoln supports the healthcare bill, if elections for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Blanche Lincoln and Republican Gilbert Baker, who would you vote for?

The result is Lincoln drops to 37 percent while Baker surges to 49 percent, and 11.5 percent remain undecided.

That's a 14-point swing based on Lincoln's vote on health care. Again, this poll should be taken with a grain of salt given the sponsor, but even if the effect of Lincoln's vote is only half of what this poll suggests, it could be the deciding factor in her race for reelection.

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com ... e-pivotal/