Bernie Madoff's alleged $50bn fraud may be just a foretaste of what's to come

First come the losses and the stupidities committed by bankers working for their own self-interest.

By Rob Cox, breakingviews.com
Last Updated: 5:47PM GMT 12 Dec 2008

Then come the rogue traders, who are unable to 'fess up on market bets gone wrong. The last to arrive is the "bezzle".

That was economist JK Galbraith's word for the outright frauds built up when markets are good. These can be kept hidden for as long as the lies hold up. But the truth will out.

The first big outing in the current financial crisis is an alleged scam that may cost investors as much as $50bn. It was committed, according to a US criminal indictment, by a highly respected member of the financial community, a one-time Nasdaq executive and a legendary trader in New York.

Bernard Madoff is accused of orchestrating a multi-year fraud in which generous returns were manufactured for sophisticated investors. The technique was the usual Ponzi scheme. Old investors were paid off by the new funds lured into to Madoff's art-laden New York headquarters.

Losses of $50bn would probably make Madoff the biggest single fraudster in history. But in fairness, such an accomplishment shouldn't come as a great surprise. In Galbraith's model of a speculative cycle, good times spawn the excess and corruption which eventually bring them to end. The last good times were especially profitable, fertilising the ground for especially large frauds.

But the first frauds to be discovered are usually the not the largest. Madoff's alleged billions could only be a foretaste of what receding markets will eventually expose.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/brea ... -come.html