Tuesday, March 09, 2010

Bragging About Census Hiring Starts Already; I'll Take The Under

Fresh on the heels of a snow job where Bernanke warned economists to disregard effects that did not happen (and anyone doing any semblance of research should have known would not happen) we now see media trumpeting up census hiring as if it was not temporary.

In case you missed the snow job analysis please see ...

* Range of Snow Impact on Jobs: Negligible to 220,000; Have Your Snow Job Decoder Ring Handy? http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... gible.html

* Jobs Contract By 36,000; Unemployment Rate Steady At 9.7%; No Snow Effect http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... yment.html


Having expected to see job losses up to 220,000 in last Friday's report, economists have now gone the other direction trumpeting part-time census jobs that will vanish by June or July.

Census Hiring Hype

Please consider this unthinking headline Obama Job Losses May Turn on 300,000 March Payrolls. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... kSeo&pos=7

The U.S. may add as many as 300,000 jobs in March, the most in four years, setting the stage for what some economists say will be sustained employment gains.

Better weather, hiring of temporary government workers and a growing economy may bring the biggest job increases since March 2006, said David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. The rise would be the second since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009.

February payrolls dropped by 36,000, the Labor Department reported last week, depressed in part by East Coast snowstorms that closed many businesses. Excluding the effects of the weather and the hiring of government workers to conduct the 2010 Census, payrolls would have climbed by about 100,000, Greenlaw said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview.

“If you get a plus 100,000 number again in March, then you’d be talking about a headline reading of a little bit better than 300,000 when you factor in the weather bounce-back and the census effect,â€