Whitman lead shrinks; Senate race now tied

May 19, 2010
By MARTIN WISCKOL and DENA BUNIS
THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

Meg Whitman's lead over challenger Steve Poizner in the GOP primary race for governor has shrunk to 9 percentage points in a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California.

GOP governor candidate Meg Whitman's once-huge lead has shrunk to only single digits, while Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell are deadlocked in the Republican race for U.S. Senate, according to a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Whitman leads fellow Republican Steve Poizner 38 percent to 29 percent among likely voters in the June 8 GOP primary, a dramatic drop from the 61 percent to 11 percent lead she posted in the March PPIC poll. Undecided voters account for 31 percent.

"After being written off by so-called experts, we are in striking distance, and our job over these final weeks is to convince the undecided voters that Steve Poizner is the right candidate," said Poizner spokesman Jarrod Agen. "They've been hearing about Whitman for many months now, but they are not sold on her."

While Whitman's TV advertising campaign was in full swing by the time of the March poll, Poizner started advertising afterward. Shifting poll numbers indicate success in his message approach.

The question is whether it will be enough for the state's insurance commissioner to catch Whitman, the former eBay CEO – particularly since mail ballots are already being sent in and more than half the state's Republicans votes could be cast before June 8.

But a recent TV ad from Whitman indicates she's feeling the heat. While her previous ads have either focused on her platform or criticized Poizner, the latest ad defends herself against Poizner attacks on her regarding illegal immigration and a 2003 donation to Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer.

Poizner has also been subjected to attacks regarding his past record on abortion, taxes and a contribution to Al Gore, as the two battle over who is the most conservative.

"We're confident that on Election Day, Californians will ... choose Meg because she is the only fiscal conservative running for governor," said Whitman spokeswoman Sarah Pompei.

In general election matchups, Democrat Jerry Brown leads Whitman 42 percent to 37 percent, and leads Poizner 45 percent to 32 percent.

Senate race

In the GOP primary to determine who will challenge Boxer, Fiorina is polling at 25 percent and Campbell at 23, virtually unchanged from PPIC's March poll. Chuck DeVore is at 16 percent, doubling his numbers in the past two months. But 36 percent remain undecided.

"I think the governor's race, because of all the money and attention devoted to it, has overshadowed the Senate primary,'' said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president.

Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO, is the only candidate currently on broadcast television. Her campaign spokeswoman, Julie Soderlund, said this poll "smells like a trend that is moving in Carly's favor'' despite there being virtually no movement.

Campbell spokesman James Fisfis said the poll shows the public has not yet fully engaged in the race.

"Right now, we're holding our own,'' he said, adding that DeVore's gains "show that conservatives are engaged and nobody else is.''

DeVore, who has been endorsed by the Tea Party Express, is "part of a national phenomenon but has a special resonance within California,'' said DeVore spokesman Joshua Trevino.

In general election matchups, Boxer leads Fiorina 48 percent to 39 percent, leads Campbell 46 percent to 40 percent, and leads DeVore 50 percent to 39 percent, according to the poll.

Baldassare said that Boxer can't take much comfort in those leads.

"Boxer and (Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jerry) Brown will come under a lot of voter scrutiny, particularly among independents as the fall election proceeds,'' he said.

PPIC interviewed 411 Republican primary likely voters from May 9 to May 16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

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Contact the writer: 714-285-2867 or mwisckol@ocregister.com

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