State exports up 21.4% over '09

By Mark Glover
mglover@sacbee.com
Published: Friday, Sep. 10, 2010 - 12:00 am | Page 6B

Despite high unemployment and a hobbled housing market, California trade continued its hot streak in July.

The state shipped $11.86 billion in goods abroad in July, up from $9.77 billion in July 2009, a 21.4 percent spike, according to an analysis of Thursday's U.S. Commerce Department figures by Beacon Economics, an economic consulting firm with offices in the Bay Area and Los Angeles.

July marked the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year increases in California exports.

Gains were seen across the board, compared with a dismal 2009.

State exports of manufactured products rose 20.1 percent from July 2009; shipments of agricultural goods and other non-manufactured products increased 10.6 percent, and re-exports of items previously imported into the state rose 32.1 percent.

Beacon said California accounted for 11.4 percent of all U.S. merchandise exports in July.

While double-digit percentage gains are impressive, analysts noted that the state's export totals are still below pre-recession levels.

In inflation-adjusted terms, Beacon calculated that California's export trade in July 2008 was $12.65 billion, or 6.6 percent higher than the value of exports shipped in July this year.

"California's economy would obviously be in even worse shape were it not for strong foreign demand for goods produced by our manufacturers and farmers," said Jock O'Connell, Beacon's international trade adviser.

O'Connell added that he and other trade analysts are skeptical about the remainder of this year.

"Madam Olga's crystal ball may be full of good cheer, but almost no one else is forecasting brisk growth in world trade this fall," he said. "Instead, governments have been joining businesses and consumers on the economic sidelines. As spending falters and demand shrinks, so too will trade.

"Unfortunately, there's more than ample reason to be cautiously pessimistic about the next few months."

California merchandise imports totaled $28.5 billion in July, an increase of 23.8 percent over the year-ago period. Some imports go to other states, so exports are considered a more accurate measure of California's trade strength.

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