Thread: CHINA TO OVERTAKE U.S. AS WORLD'S BIGGEST ECONOMY 24 MONTHS

China will overtake the US as the world’s biggest economy by 2012, or within two years.

Telegraph
Jeremy Warner

China may be bigger economy than US within two years

Here’s a finding that will have any red-blooded American spluttering into his cornflakes. According to the Conference Board, a highly respected economic research association, China will overtake the US as the world’s biggest economy by 2012, or within two years.

OK, so in dollar terms, that’s obviously not going to be the case. It will be a lot longer than two years before China overtakes the US on that measure. But in terms of purchasing power parity, according to the Conference Board’s latest world economic outlook, China is already nearly there, and by 2020 will have reached a size of output which is nearly half as big again as the US.

Here’s the Wkipedia link explaining what PPP is, but broadly speaking the idea is to measure output according to the volume, not the price of goods and services produced. The assumption made is that identical goods will have the same price in different markets. In practice, this is obviously not the case. A taxi ride in Beijing, for instance, will cost you approximately a tenth of what it costs in London. But it is essentially the same service.

In any case, in PPP terms, the Conference Board’s projections show China as 24.1 per cent of world output by 2020, and the US at just 14.8 per cent.

We all knew that the weight of economic growth had skewed dramatically since the crisis from advanced to emerging market economies, but many in the West don’t yet seem fully to appreciate the speed with which economic and geo-political power is shifting. This is a truly seismic change. How these once irrelevant economies choose to use their new found power is the overarching question of our times.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/je ... two-years/

China downgrades US credit rating; entered at 2010-11-09 10:13:11

uesday, November 09, 2010 10:08:03 AM (CH) Chinese rating agency Dagong Global Credit downgrades US credit rating due to QE program (update) - Chinese press - Cut long term US sovereign rating one notch to A+ from AA, with a negative outlook. - "The serious defects in the U.S. economy will lead to long-term recession and fundamentally lower the national solvency.

The credit crisis is far from over in the United States and the U.S. economy will be in a long-term recession." Weaker dollar will hurt US ability to attract dollar capital reflow. "In essence, the U.S. government's move to devalue the dollar indicates its solvency is on the brink of collapse"

http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2254640

"We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis and the nations will accept the New World Order."

--David Rockefeller, founder of the Trilateral Commission

U.S. Exports to China By State

The number of exports to China from each state varies, with many states exporting hundreds of millions of dollars in items to China.

California has the highest dollar amount of China exports with $11,025,000,000 in exports to China.
Washington State has the second-highest Chinese export dollar amount with $9,929,000,000 in exports to China.
The state third-highest Chinese export dollar amount is Texas, with $8,447,000,000 in Chinese exports.
Oregon, Louisiana, Illinois, Georgia and New York all have more than $2,000,000,000 in exports to China.

Growth in U.S. Exports

The Top 15 markets from 2000 to 2008 include countries all over the world, but China’s growth among them has dwarfed every other country. U.S. exports to Japan and Taiwan have experienced little to no growth during this time period.

U.S. exports to South Korea grew by about 15 percent. U.S. exports to the United Kingdom grew by about 20 percent. U.S. exports to Mexico grew by about 25 percent. U.S. exports to France grew by about 30 percent. U.S. exports to Canada during this period grew by about 40 percent. U.S. exports to Singapore grew by about 55 percent.

U.S. exports to Australia grew by about 80 percent. U.S. exports to the Netherlands grew by about 85 percent. U.S. exports to Germany grew by about 90 percent. U.S. exports to Belgium during this period grew by about 105 percent. U.S. exports to Brazil grew by about 115 percent. U.S. exports to Switzerland grew by about 120 percent. U.S. exports to China grew by about 340 percent.

Top U.S. Exports to China

The top U.S. export to China was computers and electronics, representing about $13.9 billion. The second-largest U.S. export to China was crop production, representing about $9.2 billion in exports. The third-largest U.S. export to China was made up of chemicals, representing about $8.7 billion in exports. The fourth-largest U.S. export to China was transportation equipment, representing about $7.6 billion in equipment; tying with equipment was waste and scrap, also representing about $7.6 billion in U.S. exports to China.

The Downturn Effect: The Change in Exports to China

In 2007-2008, there was a quick downturn in the amount of exports to China from Q1 to Q4, according to the U.S./China Business Council. In Q1, the growth of U.S. exports to China was about 25 percent. In Q2, the growth in U.S. exports to China was about 15 percent. In Q3, the growth of U.S. exports to China was about 12 percent. In Q4, the growth in U.S. exports to China was about negative 7 percent.

Visual Economics: US Exports To China By State - VisualEconomics.com http://www.visualeconomics.com/us-expor ... z151UgC0r0
http://www.visualeconomics.com/

http://www.visualeconomics.com/us-expor ... -by-state/