Congress Returns Amid Murky Politics

Jan 14, 1:16 PM (ET)

By CHARLES BABINGTON

WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race isn't the only important election this year. At least 470 congressional seats will be up for grabs in November, with Democrats hoping to expand their narrow majorities and crack some of the impasses that have stymied action on many issues.

When lawmakers left town last month for a winter break, they assumed the presidential voting in Iowa and New Hampshire would start giving shape and context to next fall's elections. So far, the opposite has happened.

House members returning this week feel less certain about the political landscape than when they left. The economy is now tied with the Iraq war as Americans' top concern, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll, and neither party knows who will be its presidential nominee.

Republicans who were hoping that a Democratic ticket headed by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton would fire up their conservative base now must contemplate another possible Democratic nominee in Sen. Barack Obama.

GOP leaders also had looked forward to an early presidential nominee on their side to shift attention from their ties to President Bush. But that race is more muddled than ever.

New Hampshire exit polls indicate more GOP voters dislike Bush than many people had assumed. Not only did 92 percent of Democratic voters express unhappiness with the Bush administration, but so did half of those who voted in the Republican primary.

That raises perhaps the toughest political question facing GOP lawmakers from competitive districts: how firmly to support Bush on the Iraq war, tax policies, spending priorities and other issues.

The great majority of House Republicans sided with the president last year to provide veto-proof margins against Democratic efforts to wind down the war and to greatly expand a children's health insurance program.

Other signs are troubling for Republicans. Democrats turned out in far greater numbers than Republicans in both Iowa and New Hampshire, suggesting a higher enthusiasm that also is reflected in fundraising.

And GOP lawmakers are retiring at five times the rate of Democrats. Nineteen GOP-held House seats, compared with five Democratic seats, will not have incumbents running in November. Democrats say they will compete hard for 11 of the 19.

In the Senate, which reconvenes next week, six Republicans are retiring thus far, compared to zero Democrats, and the GOP must defend 23 seats to the Democrats' 12.

Democrats want to expand their 51-49 Senate margin and edge closer to the 60-vote threshold needed to stop filibusters. They hope to win GOP seats being vacated in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado. They also are pressing Republican senators in competitive states such as Minnesota, Oregon, New Hampshire and Maine, while trying to save a hotly contested seat in Louisiana.

Despite signs of Democratic momentum, Republican congressional leaders are not hinting at changes in strategy.

"I've not seen anything yet to lead me to believe the Democrats are any more willing to reach out to us than they were before," House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, said in an interview. "Last year we stood on principle, and the president stood there with us. I don't see that changing at all."

The news isn't entirely bright for Democratic lawmakers. Some feel pressure to endorse New York's Clinton or Illinois' Obama in their tight contest, which could be a wrenching choice for black voters.

Democrats also worry that continued gridlock could bolster GOP claims that they are running a do-nothing Congress, particularly if there is no agreement on an economic stimulus package that might include a tax rebate or extension of jobless benefits.

Democratic leaders started the debate with a somewhat conciliatory tone.

"We want to work with you and the Republican leadership of the Congress to immediately develop a legislative plan" that is "timely, targeted and temporary," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said in a letter to Bush. They asked for a bipartisan meeting with him "as soon as practical."

But reaching a deal will be challenging, particularly as presidential rivals insert themselves into the mix. Top contenders Clinton, Obama and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., all want to show voters they can do more than talk.

The three candidates rarely attend routine Senate sessions anymore, but they may push competing legislation that mirrors their campaign priorities. Clinton and Obama each have an economic stimulus plan and McCain is increasingly making the economy a focus of his campaign remarks.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080114/D8U5QF4G0.html

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