Thread: Copenhagen changed the political climate

Copenhagen changed the political climate


By Jian Junbo
Asia Times
Jan 13, 2010


SHANGHAI - The United Nations' climate change conference in Copenhagen at the end of last year highlighted an emerging new international order that will be dominated by international groupings rather than by individual state powers.

The conference's agenda was dominated by informal groupings, particularly between the United States and China, but also between the world's largest developing countries. Developed powers such as Europe and Japan were largely sidelined and, significantly, it was last-minute bilateral cooperation between the US and China that saved the conference from collapse.

This highlights that bilateral interactions between the US and China, be they confrontational or cooperative, are having a growing or perhaps even dominant influence over international affairs, as part of an informal Group of Two (G-2).

The US remains the sole superpower, despite the financial crisis, while China leads developing countries as a model with its fast-growing economic and military strength. Both are permanent members of the UN Security Council. Their consensus is thus key to solving any major international issues.

However, given the different interests the two represent and due to some complicated issues (such as Taiwan and human rights), US-China relations cannot always be cooperative - they can even be confrontational. Because of this, China squarely rejects the idea of a formal G-2.

Nevertheless, an informal G-2 concept can be applied to the bilateral efforts of the US and China in dealing with international affairs. As more international issues will require the cooperation of China and the US, the informal G-2 will form an important pole in the emerging new world order.

Besides the informal G-2, groups of emerging nations that include China such as the BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) also played a significant role at the climate change conference. Although they are often considered as key players and pioneers in preventing climate change, the influence of Europe and developed countries like Japan was seen as diminished.

Another actor which lost influence in Copenhagen was the United Nations itself, though the conference was chaired by the UN and convened in its name. The voice and influence of smaller countries in Africa and Latin America also declined on major issues.

Therefore, the fledging international order seen emerging from Copenhagen is one dominated by groupings such as the informal G-2, and the BASIC, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and Group of 20 (G-20) countries.

However, for China, the informal G-2 that became a dominant force in Copenhagen does not represent the best platform from which to engage the international community. As a developing country, China wants to be involved in international affairs without burdening itself with too many responsibilities. A formal G-2 framework would present China with too much accountability, while the rules would be constructed by the US.

China agrees that cooperation with the US is important, but it entered the informal G-2 at Copenhagen reluctantly through necessity. Fortunately, emerging countries were also helpful as a counterbalance towards reaching an international agreement at the conference. This highlights that besides the informal G-2, China has other meaningful arenas, such as the BASIC, BRIC and G-20 groupings in which to interact with the international community.

The new multi-polar order that is emerging will be dominated by international, sometimes overlapping groups. The structures of the emerging groups are inconsistent with the power politics of the old era, so it is unlikely they will confront each another in the way that individual superpowers did during the Cold War. They will more likely tend towards improving international democracy and global governance.

As the largest international group, consisting of about 200 states, the UN cannot be neglected in this new world order. Though the UN is currently seen as too weak to solve most of the pressing issues and dominate the global agenda, it is still the most influential international organization. In summary, the UN is the main source of international legitimacy. With UN approval, any individual country or international group's conduct can be seen as approved, and the UN is still the best platform for international cooperation.

China should never neglect this organization if it wants its international conduct to be seen as legitimate. China should also use its permanent membership of the UN Security Council to promote international cooperation as well as defend the spirit of the UN charter and the interests of Third World countries. China should never allow any international grouping to try and overrule the UN.

If China believes that a G-2 or a possible G-3, including the US, China and another Western power, may be an attempt by the US and Western countries to dominate an international agenda that is being reshaped by China and emerging countries, it will decline entry.

Dr Jian Junbo is assistant professor of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai, China.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/LA13Ad01.html

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