Thread: Unemployment Confronts Obama Rhetoric With Chronic Joblessne

Unemployment Confronts Obama Rhetoric With Chronic Joblessness

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By Rich Miller

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Full employment ain’t what it used to be.

Economists since the mid-1990s have reckoned that full employment was equivalent to about a 5 percent unemployment rate, taking into account the time required to switch jobs. Now Nobel Prize winner Edmund Phelps and Pacific Investment Management Co. Chief Executive Officer Mohamed El-Erian say the fallout from the deepest recession in more than five decades is driving the so-called natural rate higher, perhaps to 7 percent.

“We are in the midst of a large and protracted increase in both actual unemployment and its natural rate,â€

Sharp Drop in Start-Ups Bodes Ill for Jobs, Growth Outlook

Sharp Drop in Start-Ups Bodes Ill for Jobs, Growth Outlook .ArticleComments (6)more in Economy ».EmailPrinter
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Text .By CARI TUNA
New companies will be crucial to the strength of any economic recovery. Businesses in their first 90 days of life accounted for 14% of hiring in the U.S. between 1993 and 2008, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But this recession is taking a particularly heavy toll on business creation, as sources of small-business funding dry up and would-be entrepreneurs become more risk-averse. When entrepreneurs do launch businesses, they are hiring fewer employees on average. The trends threaten to damp growth in jobs and economic output for years.

Company formation typically dips slightly in recessions, says Brian Headd, a Small Business Administration economist. Earlier this decade, business starts -- including new businesses and units of existing businesses -- fell 9% between the third quarter of 2000 and the first quarter of 2003, the BLS says.

This time, the decline has been steeper. Business starts fell 14% from the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2008; the 187,000 businesses launched in that quarter were the fewest in a quarter since 1995. The number ticked up slightly in the fourth quarter, the latest data available. But those new establishments created only 794,000 jobs, the fewest since the government began tracking the data in 1993.

The recession may have ended, but history suggests business creation won't rebound quickly. The 2001 recession officially ended in November of that year. But business starts didn't begin growing again until mid-2003. A sustained lull in company formation "could have huge implications for the economy down the road," Mr. Headd says.

To be sure, as in past recessions, some laid-off workers are starting businesses to stay afloat, or testing long-held dreams. The Kauffman Foundation, a nonprofit research group that promotes entrepreneurship, says more Americans started businesses last year than in 2007. Kauffman cites research by University of California, Santa Cruz, economist Robert Fairlie, who analyzes different BLS data.

.But funding remains an issue. Banks are reluctant to lend, especially to companies with weak or no credit history. In a July survey of more than 53 loan officers by the Federal Reserve, more than one-third reported tightening terms for small-business loans in the prior three months, while only one reported easing terms.

The stimulus package included $730 million for the SBA to help unlock the market for small-business loans, including loans for start-ups. The agency says lending through its programs is rebounding, but some small-business owners and entrepreneurs say more government support is needed.

Investors are also conservative. Venture-capital investment in U.S. companies fell 44% in the first half of 2009 from a year earlier, to $9.27 billion. Other major sources of small-business funding -- personal savings and home equity -- also have declined.

"For entrepreneurial success, access to capital is the most important factor," says Mr. Fairlie, noting the recession's roots in the finance sector.

Consider Silicon Valley entrepreneur Nick Labosky, who stepped down as CEO of a digital-marketing start-up in August 2008 to launch a social-networking company. He filed for a patent, rented space and began seeking venture backers. "That's where I hit a wall" -- even among investors who had funded his prior start-up, he says.

Six months and $25,000 of personal savings later, he shelved the project. "I decided that the concept of 'fail early, fail cheap' applied to...this endeavor," says Mr. Labosky, who is now a marketing executive at another Silicon Valley company.

Experts wonder if the severity of the recession will discourage entrepreneurs for years. Bob Keidson, a newly minted M.B.A. from UCLA's Anderson School of Management, might provide a clue. While still in business school, Mr. Keidson started a magazine about the bourbon industry. The company, in which he remains an investor, now has a staff of three.

Following graduation, he had planned to raise money from investors and start a company to buy distressed California real estate. After months of planning, Mr. Keidson decided funding would be too difficult and joined an existing real-estate firm. Established companies provide a "nice safety net," he says. "Money was clearly easier to raise several years ago."

Howard Anderson, founder of the Yankee Group, a technology-research and consulting firm, thinks the recession could affect a generation -- or more -- of would-be entrepreneurs.

Mr. Anderson, who teaches entrepreneurship at MIT's Sloan School of Management, says his father's experiences in the Depression influenced him when he started Yankee Group in 1970. Mr. Anderson didn't borrow money or seek venture investors, and he tried to always keep a year's worth of revenue in the bank. "Probably I could have grown faster taking more risk, but that risk was not in my DNA," he says.

Now, he sees students opting to take jobs with established companies rather than launching their own. In prior downturns, he says, there were a few bright spots in the economy to which potential entrepreneurs could gravitate. Today, "it's cut across pretty much every industry," he says.

Mr. Fairlie, the economist, says statistics suggest more businesses are being created more out of "necessity" than "opportunity." That "does not bode as well for economic growth," he says.

The number of new businesses with relatively low income potential -- such as baby-sitting and house-cleaning services -- grew last year. But compared with 2007, there were fewer new businesses with high income potential -- like law firms, medical offices and manufacturing outfits.

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Job losses, early retirements hurt Social Security
By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER (AP) – 13 hours ago

WASHINGTON — Big job losses and a spike in early retirement claims from laid-off seniors will force Social Security to pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes the next two years, the first time that's happened since the 1980s.

The deficits — $10 billion in 2010 and $9 billion in 2011 — won't affect payments to retirees because Social Security has accumulated surpluses from previous years totaling $2.5 trillion. But they will add to the overall federal deficit.

Applications for retirement benefits are 23 percent higher than last year, while disability claims have risen by about 20 percent. Social Security officials had expected applications to increase from the growing number of baby boomers reaching retirement, but they didn't expect the increase to be so large.

What happened? The recession hit and many older workers suddenly found themselves laid off with no place to turn but Social Security.

"A lot of people who in better times would have continued working are opting to retire," said Alan J. Auerbach, an economics and law professor at the University of California, Berkeley. "If they were younger, we would call them unemployed."

Job losses are forcing more retirements even though an increasing number of older people want to keep working. Many can't afford to retire, especially after the financial collapse demolished their nest eggs.

Some have no choice.

Marylyn Kish turns 62 in December, making her eligible for early benefits. She wants to put off applying for Social Security until she is at least 67 because the longer you wait, the larger your monthly check.

But she first needs to find a job.

Kish lives in tiny Concord Township in Lake County, Ohio, northeast of Cleveland. The region, like many others, has been hit hard by the recession.

She was laid off about a year ago from her job as an office manager at an employment agency and now spends hours each morning scouring job sites on the Internet. Neither she nor her husband, Raymond, has health insurance.

"I want to work," she said. "I have a brain and I want to use it."

Kish is far from alone. The share of U.S. residents in their 60s either working or looking for work has climbed steadily since the mid-1990s, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This year, more than 55 percent of people age 60 to 64 are still in the labor force, compared with about 46 percent a decade ago.

Kish said her husband already gets early benefits. She will have to apply, too, if she doesn't soon find a job.

"We won't starve," she said. "But I want more than that. I want to be able to do more than just pay my bills."

Nearly 2.2 million people applied for Social Security retirement benefits from start of the budget year in October through July, compared with just under 1.8 million in the same period last year.

The increase in early retirements is hurting Social Security's short-term finances, already strained from the loss of 6.9 million U.S. jobs. Social Security is funded through payroll taxes, which are down because of so many lost jobs.

The Congressional Budget Office is projecting that Social Security will pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes next year and in 2011, a first since the early 1980s, when Congress last overhauled Social Security.

Social Security is projected to start generating surpluses again in 2012 before permanently returning to deficits in 2016 unless Congress acts again to shore up the program. Without a new fix, the $2.5 trillion in Social Security's trust funds will be exhausted in 2037. Those funds have actually been spent over the years on other government programs. They are now represented by government bonds, or IOUs, that will have to be repaid as Social Security draws down its trust fund.

President Barack Obama has said he would like to tackle Social Security next year.

"The thing to keep in mind is that it's unlikely we are going to pull out (of the recession) with a strong recovery," said Kent Smetters, an associate professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. "These deficits may last longer than a year or two."

About 43 million retirees and their dependents receive Social Security benefits. An additional 9.5 million receive disability benefits. The average monthly benefit for retirees is $1,100 while the average disability benefit is about $920.

The recession is also fueling applications for disability benefits, said Stephen C. Goss, the Social Security Administration's chief actuary. In a typical year, about 2.5 million people apply for disability benefits, including Supplemental Security Income. Applications are on pace to reach 3 million in the budget year that ends this month and even more are expected next year, Goss said.

A lot of people who had been working despite their disabilities are applying for benefits after losing their jobs. "When there's a bad recession and we lose 6 million jobs, people of all types are going to be part of that," Goss said.

Nancy Rhoades said she dreads applying for disability benefits because of her multiple sclerosis. Rhoades, who lives in Orange, Va., about 75 miles northwest of Richmond, said her illness is physically draining, but she takes pride in working and caring for herself.

In June, however, her hours were cut in half — to just 10 a week — at a community services organization. She lost her health benefits, though she is able to buy insurance through work, for about $530 a month.

"I've had to go into my retirement annuity for medical costs," she said.

Her husband, Wayne, turned 62 on Sunday, and has applied for early Social Security benefits. He still works part time.

Nancy Rhoades is just 56, so she won't be eligible for retirement benefits for six more years. She's pretty confident she would qualify for disability benefits, but would rather work.

"You don't think of things like this happening to you," she said. "You want to be in a position to work until retirement, and even after retirement."

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