Thread: ECONOMY: San Diego County index shows solid increases

ECONOMY: County index shows solid increases

All areas but consumer confidence up in January

By JEFF ROWE - jrowe@nctimes.com
February 25, 2010 8:05 pm

SAN DIEGO ---- A gauge of the county economy turned strongly positive in January, suggesting the stuttering recovery finally is gathering strength.

The University of San Diego Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.6 percent, the 10th consecutive month-to-month gain.

Here are the elements of the USD report:

-- Building permits: Up 0.96 percent. In all, 282 residential units were authorized in January ---- low by historical standards, the report notes, but "much better" than the 87 permitted in January 2009, the first time ever that fewer than 100 units had been authorized in a month.

"We definitely have seen an uptick in sales," said Rock Lee, vice president of sales for Dixieline Pro Build, which has 10 stores in San Diego County and one in Murrieta, in Riverside County. "Last year at this time, we were looking at 'Where's the bottom?'" he said. "At least now we think we're out of that."

-- Stock prices: Up 0.52 percent. Stock prices ended the month lower, but the average for the month showed an increase.

-- National economy: Up 0.56 percent, the 10th month in a row for a gain.

-- Help-wanted advertising: Up 0.5 percent the third month in a row, seasonally adjusted.

-- Unemployment insurance claims: Down 6.8 percent in real numbers, which registers as a positive 1.76 percent on the USD index. Adjusted seasonally, the declines in jobless claims are even more dramatic, said Alan Gin, economics professor at the university and architect of the monthly report, because in January, a lot of workers hired for the holiday retailing season find themselves jobless.

Figures from the state Employment Development Department show 46,447 people in San Diego County filed new claims for jobless benefits, down from 49,834 people who filed new claims for benefits in December 2009.

Despite the gains in those sectors, one component of the USD report slumped ---- consumer confidence. It turned negative for the first time since March.

Still, "it has rebounded a lot from the historic low," said Gin.

He said consumer confidence is perhaps "pausing," awaiting another dose of good economic news.

Gin's report and a parallel report from Cal State Fullerton released Thursday just might be the remedy for consumer lethargy.

The Southern California Leading Economic Indicator showed a 0.14 increase in the fourth quarter of 2009, compared with the previous period.

"This is the third consecutive increase," said Adrian Fleissig, Cal State Fullerton economics professor and researcher at the university's Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies.

Before the indicator began rising, it had declined for nine consecutive quarters dating to the second quarter of 2007.

Four of the seven Cal State Fullerton component elements rose: the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, Pacific region consumer confidence index, regional building permits and a measurement of the impact of short- and long-term interest rates on the economy. Declining elements included the money supply adjusted for inflation, regional nonfarm employment and regional joblessness.

Gin's and Fleissig's reports mirror a stream of recent economic indicators concluding the recession is over but that vigorous recovery hasn't materialized.

"The recovery is coming in fits and starts," Gin said.

Call staff writer Jeff Rowe at 760-740-5417.

http://nctimes.com/business/article_e20 ... 8bc66.html

Four of the seven Cal State Fullerton component elements rose: the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, Pacific region consumer confidence index, regional building permits and a measurement of the impact of short- and long-term interest rates on the economy. Declining elements included the money supply adjusted for inflation, regional nonfarm employment and regional joblessness.

Hello! With declining employment and regional joblessmess (sic) and declining value of money (adjusted for inflation, so your $2 purchase is up to $3 or more dollars), what would make the picture seem rosy?
The S&P 500 index is not in the hands of the normal American investor, but the pros on Wall Street; jobless claims could mean that benefits have run out; rise in new housing permits only should be examined by how the populaton has increased -- drug lords and coyotes always need inconspicuous places for a stash.
I guess I am getting grouchy but I have been fed so many statistics which throw out this criteria or that one if it does not reinforce the presupposed theme.

Published: Feb. 28, 2010
Updated: 7:40 a.m.

South inland Orange County home sales up 41%
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DataQuick says south inland ZIPs — median selling price $493,250 – had 578 sales in past 22 business days, +41% from a year ago. In these 19 ZIPs, the latest median price change was +16.7% vs. a year ago.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/sout ... quick.html