Tuesday, July 20, 2010

ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators at Negative 9.8; Has the ECRI Blown Yet Another Recession Call?

Inquiring minds have been watching the ECRI's weekly leading index plunge nonstop since October of 2009. Moreover the WLI has been in negative territory for 6 consecutive weeks.



Is that a recession call by the ECRI?

Absolutely not, at least as of June 14, according to Lakshman Achuthan managing director of ECRI who blasted the Wall Street Journal for misleading reporting.

The Business Insider discusses the situation in Why Last Week's Collapsing ECRI Leading Indicator WASN'T A Recession Signal. http://www.businessinsider.com/why-last ... nal-2010-6

Following the Business Insider link back one step takes us to Jeff Miller's "A Dash of Insight" Weighing the Week Ahead: Negativity Prevails http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... gle+Reader where I see that I was cited along with the Wall Street Journal, Zero Hedge, the Pragmatic Capitalist, and the Financial Times for incorrect intrepretation of the WLI.

Miller quoting a comment in response to the Wall Street Journal article writes...

Meanwhile, in the comments there was a stern rebuke. Lakshman Achuthan wrote:

While we certainly appreciate the attention given to our Weekly Leading Index, I’d like to clarify a few points raised in the article. First, according to the Economist magazine, “the ECRIâ€