Arpaio Is Strongest GOP Candidate in 2010 Arizona Governor’s Race
Monday, November 23, 2009 Email to a Friend ShareThis.Advertisement
Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is the Republicans’ best shot at holding onto the Arizona governorship in 2010 against likely Democratic candidate Terry Goddard.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Arizona voters finds Arpaio, famed for his crackdowns on illegal immigrants, leading Goddard, the state’s current attorney general, by 12 points – 51% to 39%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

Embattled incumbent Republican Jan Brewer, who stepped up to the governorship from secretary of state when Janet Napolitano became secretary of Homeland Security, trails Goddard by nine points – 44% to 35%. In that match-up, nine percent (9%) like another candidate. Twelve percent (12%) are not sure whom they’ll vote for.

Another possible GOP candidate, State Treasurer Dean Martin, is in a virtual tie with Goddard. The Democrat beats Martin 40% to 38%, with 11% opting for some other candidate and another 11% undecided.

Of the four, Brewer is the only announced candidate so far.


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Arpaio outpolls Goddard among both men and women, while the other two Republicans carry the male vote but lose among females to their Democratic opponent.

The sheriff’s electoral strength at this stage of the game is indicative of the unhappiness many Arizona voters, like their counterparts nationwide, have with incumbents on the state and national level. New polling in Arizona shows longtime Senator John McCain with a serious Republican Primary battle on his hands, barely leading challenger J.D. Hayworth 45% to 43%.

In late September, 61% of Arizona Republicans said McCain had lost touch with his party’s base in his home state.

The U.S. Justice Department is currently investigating Arpaio’s tough enforcement of immigration laws, and the Obama administration recently limited his arrest powers over illegal immigrants. But 58% of Arizona voters said in May that the sheriff’s policies and activities have had a positive impact on the state’s image.

Sixty-four percent (64%) now say Arpaio is doing the right thing by working around federal laws to continue his aggressive actions against illegal immigration. Just 29% disagree.

That’s explained in part by the finding that 51% of Arizona voters think it is more important for Congress to pass immigration reform than health care reform. By a 65% to 20% margin, Arizona voters believe enforcing the borders is more important than legalizing the status of those already living here.

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters in the state have a very favorable opinion of Arpaio, while 23% view him very unfavorably.

Brewer is seen very favorably by just five percent (5%) and very unfavorably by 19%.

For Martin, very favorables total nine percent (9%) and very unfavorables five percent (5%).

Goddard, who also served as mayor of Phoenix, is regarded very favorably by 15% and very unfavorably by 14%.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Arizona is one of the hardest hit states in the country budgetwise, and just 39% of voters now approve of Brewer’s performance as governor. Only four percent (4%) strongly approve. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove of the job she is doing, with 24% who strongly disapprove.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) say economic conditions in Arizona are getting worse. Just 13% say they are getting better, while 22% think they’re staying about the same.

But again like voters around the country, most in Arizona don’t think tax increases are the way out. Fifty-one percent (51%) oppose increasing the state sales tax to solve budget issues, while 36% say an increase in the sales tax is a good idea. Thirteen percent (13%) aren’t sure.

Forty percent (40%) approve of the job President Obama is doing, with 29% who strongly approve. However, 60% disapprove of his job performance, including 52% who strongly disapprove. This is much worse than Obama’s numbers nationwide in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.


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