Generic Congressional Ballot
Generic Ballot: Republicans 44%, Democrats 35%

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Republican candidates start the year by opening a nine-point lead over Democrats, the GOP's biggest in several years, in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 35% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

While the Republican lead has reached a new high, it should be noted that support for GOP candidates rose just one point over the past week, while support for Democrats dropped four points to its lowest level in years.

In addition, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of tracking.

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The latest generic ballot numbers highlight a remarkable change in the political environment during 2009. When President Obama was inaugurated, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point advantage on the Generic Ballot. That means the GOP has made a net gain of 16 percentage points over the course of the year. Support for Democrats has declined eight points since Obama's inauguration while Republican support is up nine points.

The Republican gains began in February when Republicans in the House unanimously opposed the $787-billion economic stimulus plan proposed by the president and ocngressional Democrats. At that time, Republican gains came almost entirely from the GOP base. Currently, just 30% of voters believe the stimulus plan helped the economy while 38% believe it hurt.

The two parties were very close on the Generic Ballot throughout the spring, but Republicans pulled ahead for good in late June. Those GOP gains took place after the health care debate began and unaffiliated voters began to shift away from the Democrats. Only 40% of voters currently favor the health care plan, while 55% are opposed.

A month-by-month review of the President’s job approval ratings
as measured in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that they also began to tumble during the summer months.

While reviewing these trends, it’s important to remember that the numbers could shift in 2010 just as much as they did in 2009. When the health care debate in Congress comes to an end, Democrats will have the opportunity to begin damage control efforts.

Since late June, support for Republican candidates on the Generic Ballot has ranged from 41% to 44%, while support for Democrats has run from 36% to 40%.

Throughout the fall and winter of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates ranged from 42% to 47%. Republican support ranged from 37% to 41%.

Republicans have held the lead on the ballot for over four months now. Democrats currently have majority control of both the House and Senate.

There has been a notable shift this week among women, who now favor Republicans slightly 40% to 38%. Last week, women favored Democrats 45% to 38%. Men prefer Republicans 49% to 32%, showing little change over the past week.

Among all voters not affiliated with either party, the GOP leads 48% to 17%.
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