GOP resurgence may not swing California races

By John Marelius, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
Sunday, January 17, 2010 at 1:10 a.m.

With President Barack Obama’s approval rating sinking and Washington gripped by fights about health care, climate change and deficit spending, Republicans are confident of recouping at least some of their losses in the past two elections.

Early handicapping of the November midterm election has Republicans picking up at least three Senate seats and between 20 and 30 in the House. Such losses could stymie Obama’s legislative agenda, which has been squeaking by on narrow party-line votes.

Does a big Republican year nationally portend Republican success in California? Not necessarily, analysts say, noting that the state GOP has major structural problems and that California often bucks national trends.

In 2006, the national Democratic wave stopped at California, where Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected in a landslide over Democrat Phil Angelides.

“The 2006 elections show that there’s no automatic carry-over,â€