Thread: The House horse race: How many seats will Republicans gain?

March 25, 2010, 4:39 PM EDT

The House horse race: How many seats will Republicans gain?


Republicans have high hopes that they’ll be able to replace dozens of Democrats in the House of Representatives in this year’s midterm election on Nov. 2, cutting into the Democrats’ current 253-177 majority.

They have good reasons to think they’ll pick up some seats this fall.

According to the political analysts we surveyed, the Republicans are expected to gain about 20 to 35 seats, just short of the 40 they would need to take control.


Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is currently projecting a 27-seat pick up for the Republicans.

The Rothenberg Political Report estimates the Republicans would gain 26 seats, if they won all the seats now rated as toss ups.

Congressional Quarterly predicts the Republicans would take 20 seats if they win the toss ups.

The latest betting on Intrade markets looks for the Republicans to pick up 35 Democratic seats.


The Intrade markets give the Republicans about a 43% chance of controlling the House.

Finally, RealClearPolitics figures the Republicans could take as many as 47 seats, if all the toss-up seats go their way.

Only a fraction of House seats are in play, the experts say. As usual, most incumbents of both parties should have an easy path to victory in November.

The Republicans have history on their side. The party that controls the White House almost always loses seats in the midterm election. Over the past 65 years, the president’s party has lost an average of 24 House seats in the midterm elections. The president’s party has gained seats in only two of 16 midterm elections since the war.

Why is that? It could be due to some buyer’s remorse on the part of the voters, but the far more likely explanation is that the winner of the presidential election has coat tails that help elect members of his party in districts that are evenly divided between the parties.

Two years later, the president isn’t on the ballot, and can only help his party indirectly. Voter turnout in midterm elections usually falls by about a third from the turnout in a presidential election year. Voters in midterm elections are usually more politically active, and are more likely to identify with a political party.

The Republicans also have some other big advantages this year. Polls show Congress is extremely unpopular with the public. Anti-incumbent feelings are running high, and most incumbents are Democrats.

Anger over the bank bailout, the stimulus and the health-care bill have fired up conservatives. Polls show conservatives are more enthusiastic about voting than liberals are, although liberals have been reanimated (at least temporarily) by the passage of health-care reform.

When asked which party they are likely to vote for, Republicans are favored by 44% to 41%, according to Pollster.com’s average of polls. On the other hand, Republicans are viewed slightly less favorably than Democrats, and neither party is liked by even 50% of the public.

It’s still more than seven months from Election Day.

Predictions made in March may not be worth the paper they are printed on, but they do indicate that the environment right now is very good for Republicans.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2 ... cans-gain/

Republicans need to take the House in order to STOP FUNDING ON AN APPROPRIATION BILL FOR OBAMA CARE!

FIND CANDIDATES YOU CAN SUPPORT AND SUPPORT THEM!

If we don't take the HOUSE - MS. Nancy will PASS ALL THE $$$ NEEDED FOR OBAMACARE! AND SHE WILL STILL BE SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE!