NATO Members Wonder: Will The Alliance Hold?

Friday, September 19, 2008 6:00 AM



LONDON — In the aftermath of Russia's brief war with Georgia, the United States and its NATO partners face questions about the very foundation of their alliance — the pledge enshrined in the 59-year-old North Atlantic Treaty that an unprovoked attack on one member would be treated as an attack on all.

Georgia, while not yet a NATO member, is pushing for early entrance despite Russia's strong objections.

The Russian incursion in August raises questions for newer NATO members — like the three Baltic states that were part of the Soviet Union before the fall of the communist empire in 1991 — about whether and how NATO would respond in the event that Russia chose to invade their territory.

That issue forms a part of the backdrop to a meeting here Friday of allied defense ministers who are divided over how to treat their relationship with Russia and how to proceed with NATO military reforms.

No firm decisions are expected. The matter will be further considered by NATO foreign ministers in December.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who was a specialist in Soviet affairs during his career at the CIA, said Thursday that while the crisis in Georgia has caused concerns within NATO, he does not believe the alliance faces the likelihood of war with Russia.

Gates, speaking with reporters in advance of a NATO defense ministers meeting, said there is a sharp division of opinion over what the Russian war with Georgia means for the alliance and its relations with Moscow.

"I think we need to proceed with some caution because there clearly is a range of views in the alliance about how to respond," he said. The split, he said, is between alliance members in eastern Europe and those in western Europe.

Germany and others in western Europe intend to block further U.S. efforts this year to give the go-ahead to put Georgia on a formal track toward membership, although they are leery of giving the appearance of caving in to Russia on this issue.

"There is a middle ground that I will suggest, where we do some prudent things that are consistent with the kinds of activities NATO has been engaged in for nearly 60 years in terms of planning, in terms of exercises — and at the same time are not provocative and don't tend to draw any firm red lines or send signals that are unwanted, at the same time it provides some reassurance to the allies in eastern Europe and the Baltic states."

Gates also said that while Russia's more aggressive actions, including its incursion into Georgia, are worrisome to many in NATO, there is no expectation of war with Russia.

"It's hard for me to imagine that those who are currently in NATO feel a real military threat coming from Russia," he said. "To the degree there is a sense of concern, my guess is it has more to do with pressure and intimidation than it does with any prospect of real military action."

NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer and envoys from all 26 member countries were in Georgia this week. The NATO delegation visited the central Georgian city of Gori, which was bombed and occupied by Russian troops during the five-day war in August.

Russia's Foreign Ministry said the Gori visit sent an obvious anti-Russian message. The NATO chief would have gotten a more objective picture by visiting the capital of South Ossetia, which came under heavy Georgian shelling during the war, the ministry said.

In remarks Thursday at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, de Hoop Scheffer said, "I do not believe the second Cold War is in the offing but the role Russia wants to play in the international system is uncertain."

"Russia has demonstrated a total disregard for the sovereignty of a small neighbor, and for international law," the NATO chief added. "This represents a challenge for our partnership. Russia has long demanded to be treated with respect. That respect has to be earned."

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