Thread: Insiders: Romney Is Top GOP 2012 Contender, Daniels Second

National Journal
By James A. Barnes

Insiders: Romney Is Top GOP 2012 Contender, Daniels Second

VIDEO: http://bcove.me/hpbbwxpl

Rank the top 5 candidates, 1 through 5, in terms of whom you think is most likely to capture the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

Mitt Romney 78 -3 pts

Mitch Daniels 37 +12 pts

Tim Pawlenty 33 -13 pts

John Thune 32 -6 pts

Sarah Palin 28 +3 pts

Haley Barbour 24 -4 pts

Mike Huckabee 21 +7 pts

Newt Gingrich 16 +2 pts

Rick Perry 6 +4 pts

Jeb Bush 5 -1 pts

Also receiving an index rating: Mike Pence, 4; Chris Christie, 3; Jon Huntsman, Jim DeMint, 2; Eric Cantor, Bobby Jindal, Ron Paul, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, 1 each; Herman Cain, Tom Coburn, David Petraeus, Marco Rubio, less than 1 each.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney continues to hold the pole position for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination in the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll. But the surprise runner-up to Romney was the two-term Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who moved up from fifth place when the last ranking of the potential GOP White House contenders was conducted a year ago.

Romney's assets and liabilities are well known and haven't changed much since last January. He has a national network of political and financial supporters left over from his unsuccessful run for the 2008 Republican nomination, a command of economic issues derived from his days in the private sector as a corporate turnaround artist, and the hard-won experience from have run for the presidency before.

But Romney must also figure out a way to convince Republican activists that the health care reform measure that he signed as governor of Massachusetts is different from the national health care reform passed by Pres. Obama and congressional Democrats that is anathema to the GOP rank-and-file. He also has a perceived authenticity deficit. Romney "probably knows more about macroeconomics than most but will need to learn to speak or appear more genuine," cautioned one Republican Insider.

SLIDESHOW: More on the Insiders' picks.

Daniels has taken few obvious steps to lay the foundation for a prospective 2012 candidacy in the last year, but Republican Insiders nonetheless have gravitated to him as the lead alternative to Romney. Daniels is seen as having a solid conservative record as governor, particularly in controlling state spending. Yet there's still doubt about how effective a candidate he'd be. Daniels "has the credentials; needs to work on his charisma," said one Republican Insider.

Rounding out the top five in order were former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Sen. John Thune of South Dakota and former 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin. Pawlenty was seen as a diligent contender who has spent considerable time out on the hustings making the case for his candidacy. But he nonetheless slipped into third place in this survey, perhaps reflecting the skepticism of party professionals that faces any rookie on the national stage. Pawlenty "must prove he can fundraise and organize to be taken seriously," said one GOP Insider.

The standings were determined by Republican Insiders who are asked to rank five contenders who they think are most likely to capture the GOP 2012 nomination. A first-place vote is worth five points; a second-place vote is worth four points and so on. The contenders' rankings reflect the percentage of total points each receives out of the maximum possible. For example, Romney received rating of 78, meaning he received 78 percent of the possible 535 points, the number he would have received if all 107 participants in the poll this week had ranked him first.

Who would be the Republicans' strongest presidential nominee in 2012? Democrats (113 votes)

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2010

Mitt Romney 24% 29%

Mitch Daniels 17% 11%

Jeb Bush 14% 5%

John Thune 11% 15%

Tim Pawlenty 9% 13%

Also receiving votes: Mike Huckabee, 7%; Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, 4% each; Haley Barbour, 3%; Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, 2% each; Michael Bloomberg, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Bob McDonnell, David Petraeus, 1% each.

Democratic Insiders were asked to assess who would be the strongest candidates that Republicans could put up against Obama and Romney was a small plurality winner. But in this poll as well, Daniels' standing also rose from a year before. But perhaps most surprising was the relatively strong showing by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R). Not so long ago Democrats -- and more than few Republicans -- thought the Bush name might be politically toxic. In the midterm campaigns, Democrats did their best to tie their GOP opponents with the tarnished legacy of the previous president. But that strategy was not very effective. As one Democratic Insider put it, "The strongest [GOP] nominee needs to be conservative enough to get nominated, have a record of accomplishment, not scare moderates and Latino voters, and be able to raise close to a billion dollars. Bush is the only one that checks all of the boxes."

Source: http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.co ... romney.php

And here I thought I was keeping up with GOP politics--who the heck is Daniels?!?!

And here we go propping up Romney again He is a terrible choice--Just barely to the right of the Dems, and certainly no better than McCain. We need a REAL conservative to represent the GOP, not just a pretty face talking head that echos back what it thinks you want to hear.

WHO made up this list and voted??? "Republican Insiders"?? They helped get us in this mess we're in now--no way I put any value on what they say. I mean, this list has Donald Trump on it, for goodness sakes---how dumb is THAT!!!!

I will vote third party rather than vote Romney.

imblest wrote,

I will vote third party rather than vote Romney. Evil or Very Mad

Yup. This is a sad start. Wish I could be surprised. After all, anything, even a slug has got to be better than what we have now.

Perhaps McCain should run again?

Who knows, perhaps Romney will be able to come up with a good slogan like......."its the people's seat."

I am hearing good things about Daniels and the citizens of Indiana really like him. I cannot find any info about his stand on Illegal Immigration otherwise he sounds good to me.

Romey is simply another Eastern Neocon backed by the Bush family perhaps as a gate way to Jeb as vice president, in any manner not good for America.