Iowa Straw Poll Winner?

Gambling 911
Sunday Aug 12, 2007

We all figured Mitt Romney would win the Iowa Straw Poll but who would have figured on an hour plus delay in the winner announcement?

The key question remained, Who would come in second and how much would that person cut into his lead? The answer to that question: Mike Huckabee, who came in with 18.1% of the vote.

Sam Brownback came in with a close 15%. The rest of the pool (including those not in attendance and Fred Thompson) made up the final percentage.

Ron Paul received over 9% of the vote.

Mitt Romney 4516 31.5%
Mike Huckabee 2587 18.1%
Sam Brownback 2192 15.3%
Tom Tancredo 1961 13.7%
Ron Paul 1305 9.1%
Tommy Thompson 1039 7.3%
Fred Thompson 203 1.4%
Rudy Giuliani 183 1.3%
Duncan Hunter 174 1.2%
John McCain 101 1.0%
John Cox 41 0.1%

14,302 Total Votes
26,000 Total Tickets Sold

But by 9 pm EST, the long delays had people questioning whether Romney had actually won. After all, there were nothing but Ron Paul signs in the crowd. Then came the announcement of "a vote count problem".

Mary Tiffany, a spokeswoman for the Republican Party of Iowa, said officials were forced to count ballots by hand after one of the voting machines malfunctioned while tabulating. Optical scan ballots – not punch cards – are being used in this non-binding straw poll, according to the New York Times.

About 30,000 to 33,000 Republicans came to meet candidates and cast their votes in Ames, Iowa, much less than the forecasted 40,000. Late forecasts from Fox News suggested perhaps as few as 13,000 to 15,000 votes were cast. The vote results were delayed for an hour.

The Iowa Straw Poll is a straw poll that takes place in Ames, Iowa on a Saturday in August of years in an election cycle in which the Republican presidential nomination is undecided (that is, in years without an incumbent Republican President running for re-election). Though several different pre-Iowa Caucus straw polls take place in Iowa, the Ames Straw Poll is by far the most prominent one of them, because it draws voters from all over the state rather than just the local area, and is thus also commonly known as the Iowa Straw Poll. The Ames Straw Poll was first held in 1979.

As a straw poll, the Ames Straw Poll's results are non-binding and have no official effect on the presidential primaries. However, the straw poll is frequently seen as a first test of organizational strength in Iowa by the news media and party insiders. As such, it can become very beneficial for the winning candidate on the national level because it builds momentum for their campaign, enhances their aura of inevitability, and shows off a superior field operation.

Since its founding, the winner of the Ames Straw Poll has gone on to win the Republican presidential nomination two out of four times. Three out of four winners (including one of the winners of the 1995 tie), have gone on to win the Iowa Caucus.

But the smaller attendance numbers suggests that this format and polling platforms in general could be taking a backseat to Internet agendas such as the newly created YouTube Debates (the first of which was not a ratings juggernaut though).

Most of the talk for number two in the mainstream press centered on Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback. The Internet was abuzz with mention of maverick Ron Paul, who had the early vote for loudest support contingent. His campaign signs lined the highways and streets leading into Ames, Iowa. (read Gambling911.com's interview with Ron Paul)

While the Ron Paul supporters were evident in large numbers, many did come in from out of state (which certainly bodes well for his campaign). Paul and Romney were both listed with 8 to 1 odds to become the next US President just prior to the Straw Poll. They were the two favorites of the Republicans in attendance. Both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain declined to attend.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee predicted this evening that today’s straw poll will be a “very, very big dayâ€