Thread: The Latino vote

The Latino vote
As the campaigns are finding out, it isn't that simple, especially in key Western states

By Alicia Caldwell
Article Last Updated: 08/23/2008 11:23:39 PM MDT

Latinos have emerged in this presidential campaign as one of the most sought-after voting "blocs" in the battleground states of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

But earning their vote is no easy task.

The social and political diversity within the ethnic group is forcing campaigns to employ different and perhaps unfamiliar strategies.

"Campaigning among Hispanics is basically a new science," said Sergio Bendixen, a Miami-based consultant who is a leader in Hispanic opinion polling. "Before 2000, no one had a Hispanic consultant or a wing of the campaign assigned to the Hispanic electorate."

The political and demographic take on Hispanics in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico is not one story but many, and that diversity embodies the complexity of trying to win over a voting bloc that's not really a bloc.

There is no one-size-fits-all approach.

In New Mexico, particularly in the northern part of the state, there are a lot of socially conservative Hispanics. Some have served in the military or have family members who have. National security generally is an important issue.

They come from families that have lived in the same region for hundreds of years and hold close to their Spanish ancestry.

They vote in impressive numbers, and are solidly rooted in the middle class. They have helped propel other Hispanics into elected offices.

When in New Mexico, call them Hispanics, not Latinos, or risk being pegged as someone unfamiliar with how they see themselves.

" 'Latino' is a term that people from California use when they come to New Mexico," said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research and Polling, a New Mexico firm.

In Nevada, there are many newcomers in the construction and culinary industries. Of those Latinos eligible to vote, many don't have a tradition of doing so. Their interests tend toward labor and economics.

There are few Latino elected officials in Nevada, though the state has seen huge increases in the Latino population. Many eligible Latino voters use Spanish as a primary language.

"Almost two-thirds of registered voters are immigrants, and Spanish-language television is the way to get them," said Bendixen.

But bringing them to the polls is a tough assignment. Only 25 percent of Nevada Latinos eligible to vote went to the polls in the 2006 mid-term elections, according to a U.S. Census Bureau survey. In New Mexico, the number was 52 percent. In Colorado, it was 40 percent.

Those numbers illustrate how Colorado falls somewhere between New Mexico and Nevada on the continuum of assimilation and political participation. Most eligible Latino voters in Colorado are English-dominant, of Mexican descent and were born in the U.S. But they still have strong Latino cultural ties, and might listen to Spanish radio.

Rick Ridder, a Denver-based political consultant, said more than 90 percent of Latino voters prefer to be interviewed in English.

"It's very much 'I want to participate. I speak English,' " he said. "But as far as entertainment, they listen to Spanish radio."

Arturo Jimenez, who successfully campaigned for a seat on Denver's school board, said it's best to reach Latino voters in person, not by approaching a handful of Latino civic leaders. He should know. He knocked on 3,000 doors in a heavily Latino district in the 2007 election.

Jimenez says it's true that Latino senior citizens have many of the same concerns as non-Latino seniors. Same goes for 25-year-olds and other demographics.

"Many Latino voters don't see themselves as a separate voting bloc," he said. "But they like that they're appreciated for being Latinos."

Difficulty of ethnic politics

There comes a point where all campaigns courting the Latino vote will have to engage in the delicate dance of ethnic politics.

The difficulty comes in making entreaties to Hispanics because of who they are without appearing to offer special treatment, which might alienate other non-Hispanic voters.

Put another way, how do you keep an overture from looking like pandering?

Both campaigns have been quick to dismiss such talk by saying the concerns of Latinos are the same as the rest of the country. And that's largely true.

"But in terms of strategies and mobilization, they're not the same," said Anna Sampaio, associate professor of political science at the University of Colorado Denver.

If you don't target Latino votes, they get lost in the mix, she said. Sampaio said the biggest potential is with the unlikely voter — one who might be registered to vote but hasn't voted in awhile.

"Getting to those folks is going to be harder," Sampaio said.

Going door-to-door in low-income neighborhoods and telling people how to register and where to vote are the most successful strategies. Those efforts are being undertaken in parts of Colorado, she said.

Thus far, neither the campaigns of Sens. John McCain campaign nor Barack Obama have come close to the effort that Sen. Hillary Clinton made in cultivating the Hispanic vote in the primaries. She called the Clinton effort the "gold standard" for sophisticated Latino mobilization.

That standard was achieved, Sampaio said, by pulling together a multi-tiered operation early on that included professional political consultants, academics and activists.

Surely, the Obama campaign's announcement last month of a $20 million effort to attract Latino voters is a step in the right direction for Democrats.

Polls have shown consistent Latino support for Obama over McCain by about a 2-to-1 margin. There is ground to be gained, however, in encouraging more Latino voters to go to the polls.

Playing field has changed

For the GOP, the challenge is complicated by other factors. President George W. Bush got a significant proportion of the Latino vote in 2004. Those estimates, which remain hotly disputed, range from 32 to 44 percent.

However, the inflammatory rhetoric on immigration issue has changed the playing field for Republicans. They must now find a way to overcome the vitriol they evoked during the debates in Congress if they want to get Latino votes.

It's not that Latinos are necessarily opposed to all Republican policy positions on immigration, said Bendixen, the Miami pollster.

"They look at what happened in the immigration debate not as a policy issue, but as an attack on Hispanic people," he said.

That puts a candidate like McCain, who has a moderate position on immigration, in a bad spot, particularly in a place like Nevada, said Eric Herzik, political science chairman at the University of Nevada-Reno.

Tensions over immigration are so high in Nevada that McCain risks alienating the Republican conservative base, which is largely anti-immigration, if he is seen reaching out to Latinos, Herzik said.

Republicans need to emphasize entrepreneurial values and the importance of family structure to appeal to Latinos, said Sean Tonner, a Denver-based political consultant who successfully courted the Hispanic vote for former Gov. Bill Owens, a Republican.

But that's not going to work very well, he said, until Republicans come to a reasonable solution on immigration.

"We should be going after those votes," he said. "Democrats are going to continue to benefit if we are allowed to be seen as anti-Hispanic or anti-Latino."

With 10 weeks to go before Election Day, the attention focused on Latino voters is likely to pick up — and probably won't wane for some time.

U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar said the "demographic writing on the wall" will push both the Democratic and Republican parties to continue courting the increasing Latino vote in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

"I think Hispanic voters in those three states," Salazar said, "are part of the new West that has brought about a change in the political composition."

Alicia Caldwell is a member of the Denver Post editorial board.
http://www.denverpost.com/opinion/ci_10270999

The difficulty comes in making entreaties to Hispanics because of who they are without appearing to offer special treatment, which might alienate other non-Hispanic voters.

Put another way, how do you keep an overture from looking like pandering?

Too late!

These "candidates" (and I use the term loosely) need to start pandering for MY vote. Conversations with friends, family, and just people on the street, have resulted in those in my circle deciding that neither one deserves our votes.

Wonder if they have a RACE card for that.

Originally Posted by zeezil

However, the inflammatory rhetoric on immigration issue has changed the playing field for Republicans. They must now find a way to overcome the vitriol they evoked during the debates in Congress if they want to get Latino votes.

It wasn't the Republicans who had the inflammatory vitrol about Hispanic immigration, it was LaRaza and their minions who take any enforcement that way!