Thread: Kosovo Conflict Fears Rise

Kosovo Conflict Fears Rise
Friday, December 7, 2007 8:01 AM
By: Patrick Goodenough

On the eve of the deadline for a decision on Kosovo's "final status," Russia shows no sign of backing down on opposition to independence, and the Serbian government reiterated that it would never give up the province.

An advisor to the Serbian prime minister told state media Thursday the country would use "all means" necessary to defend its sovereignty.

Some experts are warning of the strong possibility of violence breaking out in the months ahead, following a widely expected declaration of independence by Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leaders. The U.S., which has about 1,500 troops in the province, could be drawn further in.

NATO ministers meeting in Brussels Friday are set to announce that they will keep the alliance's 16,000-strong KFOR peace force at current levels, a move aimed at assuring all parties in the Balkans that international forces are prepared for any eventuality.

On Monday, mediators from the U.S., European Union (E.U.) and Russia "troika" are due to report to the United Nations that efforts to find a negotiated resolution have failed. The Security Council is scheduled to debate the issue on Dec. 19.

The U.S. and most E.U. member states support a U.N.-sponsored plan of "supervised independence" for Kosovo that includes protections for the province's Serbian minority.

But Russia, a longstanding ally of Serbia, has vowed to use its Security Council veto to block any resolution on Kosovo's formal breakaway. So, whatever future processes take place, they will likely not have a U.N. mandate.

Kosovo has been under U.N. administration, with NATO providing security, since the 1999 NATO war ended a violent conflict between Belgrade and Kosovar Albanians and forced Serb troops to withdraw from the province.

Serb Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica told his country's official Tanjug news agency Thursday that Serbia would reject any solution for Kosovo not endorsed by the Security Council.

"If the U.S. decides for the Albanian separatists to declare unilateral independence," he said, that would prove that NATO's involvement in 1999 had been designed to "create a puppet NATO state."

Ethnic Albanian leaders have indicated they will declare independence at some point after the Dec. 10 deadline passes, although informed observers believe they may wait until after Serbian presidential elections in January and February.

Experts worry the a declaration of independence could spark renewed violence carried out by Serbian and ethnic Albanian militias, possibly prompting an exodus of minority Serbs.

The move could also have destabilizing implications for the wider Balkans region, as enclaves of Albanians and Serbs seek to break away in Macedonia and Bosnia respectively.

(Bosnia is a particular worry. Bosnian Serbs in 1992 rejected a declaration of independence by Bosnian Muslims, triggering a bloody civil war that ended with U.S.-led NATO military action and the 1995 Dayton peace accord. A NATO peacekeeping force there was replaced in 2004 by an E.U. force, which is currently 2,500-strong.)

'Dangerous move'

NATO late last month moved more of its forces into northern Kosovo, where many of Kosovo's 10 percent minority Serbs live.

"We may see renewed bloodshed in the Balkans next year," Charles Kupchan, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, warned in a teleconference.

He said although Kosovo was only one of many current issues of contention between Russia and the West, it was the "most dangerous," because lives were at stake.

Even beyond the Balkans, Kupchan said, the precedent set by Kosovo's breakaway and recognition by some of the international community could stoke separatism in Chechnya, Moldova, Georgia and elsewhere.

While he said he supported Kosovo independence for pragmatic reasons, it was nonetheless "a dangerous move in a Europe that remains confronted by the prospect of other ethnic secessionist movements."

Under the "supervised independence" plan, the E.U. is meant to assume the lion's share of responsibility for Kosovo from the U.N.

But a U.S. role may not be excluded, Kupchan said.

"We could see a new round of fighting in the Balkans and we know the last time that happened it took the United States to step in because the E.U. was not up to the task."

The Kosovo issue has posed a major dilemma for the E.U. Although most of the 27-member bloc supports the independence plan, countries including Greece, Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia and Spain remain unconvinced, because of the potential spin-offs in their regions.

The split could cause difficulties as the E.U. will have to find ways of providing the new country with economic assistance even though some members don't recognize it, former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. and Dayton accord negotiator Richard Holbrooke said in a CFR interview Wednesday.

Holbrooke called for the U.S. and NATO to put additional troops into both Kosovo and Bosnia as quickly as possible.

"We have two choices here: You send troops in beforehand, to prevent the violence, or you rush troops in after it breaks out and the social fabric has been further torn apart," he said.

"We always talk about 'preventative diplomacy' ... here is a classic case where a few troops now might prevent the need for more troops later, and we have to try to get some additional troops in fast."

Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell told a press briefing late last month that he was not aware of any current plans to beef up U.S. forces in Kosovo.

"I think at this point our forces are where they need to be, but we would certainly welcome our European allies taking such a step if they believe that's necessary to secure the peace there."

The International Crisis Group in a new report Thursday recommended a managed process in which the Kosovo government announces in January its intention to declare independence in May, based on the U.N. plan, along with a commitment to keeping KFOR in place. This should be followed by the U.S. and as many E.U. states as possible pledging to recognize Kosovo's independence in May.

This would be far better than the international community having "to react to an uncoordinated, unsupervised, possibly violent independence procedure that could stimulate instability in Kosovo's neighbor countries," said Sabine Freizer, director of the think tank's Europe program.

State Department spokesman Tom Casey said Thursday he did not expect violence to erupt after the deadline expires, noting that "both sides have reiterated their commitment to working and resolving this issue peacefully."

http://www.newsmax.com/international/Ko ... 55373.html

Hmmm Airborne ... why would you put this in here.

Did you know this all started with a mass migration of Illegal Muslum Immigrants.. into the Serbian country from Albania

Did you know they were slitting the serbians thoats, men, women and children as they slept causing wide spread panic amoung the serbs

The Serbians were vicious in the response and because of that the United States bombed Serbia into submission (That would be President Clinton) and his New World Order vision as part of the (CFR)

Now the US wants to carve up Serbia and give this province to the Muslum / Croat Federation as an Independant country and it all started with Illegal Immigrants

Hmmm sounds like the US doesnt it ... what happens if the same thing happens here ...

Because of our interferring is the world not obligated to bomb us into submission if the Illegal Alien hoard wants thier own country within the US and riots begin

We have no right interferring in these far off lands... Unless the same goes in this country as well and we are prepared to give up land to Aztlan and it's independance movement

You might want to pay attention to what Russia is saying while our country is in a vulnerable weakend state

You might also want to light up your politicians backside when they play super man trying to save the world while our country is being openly invaded ... nuff said

...But I thought there was no 'down side' to celebrating diversity, multiple languages, multiple cultures, and differing religions, etc....?
After all, many of the peoples that inhabit the Balkans have been 'celebrating' that diversity for the last 600 years or so. ... will true peace ever be realized there???

I was stationed there as well as Bosnia and had to do demining operations outside of Olevo where everyone was killed in thier homes and in the streets.

You can smell the tension.... we should not have did what we did

Originally Posted by AirborneSapper7

I was stationed there as well as Bosnia and had to do demining operations outside of Olevo where everyone was killed in thier homes and in the streets.

You can smell the tension.... we should not have did what we did

We meddle way too much in the affairs of other governments.. and we no longer have the clout to force things thru threats. We need to let them make their own way..