Thread: Meanwhile In Europe... Remember Italy?

Meanwhile In Europe...

Submitted by Tyler Durden
07/08/2011 10:37 -0400

Remember Italy? That country we have been warning will be the next casualty as Europe's implosion tsunami sweeps everything in its path? Well, UniCredit is now down over 8%, well beyond the price it was halted at and falling. UCG Sr CDS 250/260; Subs are 458/478. ASSGEN next.



Elsewhere, Banco Populare was just halted and unhalted and is now down 6%.



http://www.zerohedge.com/article/meanwhile-europe

Here's Why Italy's CDS Are The Biggest Risk For The Eurozone

Submitted by Tyler Durden
07/08/2011 16:31 -0400
44 comments

Much hollow rhetoric has been uttered about the vast existential threat presented by Greek CDS. As we have reported, Greek CDS is the least of Europe's problems. When it comes to the stability of the European dominoes, it is and has always been about Italy, which is not only the second worst country in Europe after Greece on a debt/GDP basis, and also the country with the largest amount of nominal debt, but more importantly has the largest amount of net CDS outstanding. All this is summarized on the Bloomberg chart below.



What the market is most confused by is that Spain, which everyone thought would be the next to fall after Portugal, yet which in the Cajas has the same GSE-type structure that provides a natural buffer to a housing system that is getting destroyed by its own Option ARM implosion (unlike the US' Liebor, Euribor is at 1.593% and making adjustable mortgages quite painful), the bond vigilantes decided to go straight to the gateway to Europe's core. Italy. So ignore whatever the PBoC is doing with the EURUSD, and Brian Sack is telegraphing with his ES ramp into the close: the truth is Italy is on the verge, and with all communicating vessels, the pain is only just beginning as Europe will find out very soon: as the chart below shows, there is a doozy of Treasury issuance about to be unleashed by the Italian Treasury.



Bottom line: the Italian CDS is not so much an aggregator of risk, as a beacon of where investors think risk will emanate from next. Although, to be fully objective, the biggest surge in recent months in net notional has not been at Italy, nor Spain, nor any of the other PIIGS, but.. France.



There is, however, one country that is missing from the Y/Y surge comparison. The United States of America. http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... date_1.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/heres- ... k-eurozone

UniCredit Stock Halted After Plunge As Fresh Wave Of Italian Fears Emerges

Submitted by Tyler Durden
07/08/2011 07:05 -0400
27 comments

Another day, another implosion in Italy, this time focusing on core bank UniCredit, which earlier dropped by 6.5% resulting in a stock halt, only to reopen just modestly higher. There was no immediate catalyst, just more of the same: rumors that FinMin Tremonti is resigning, especially following the arrest of Marco Milanese which indicates the fallout is imminent (see below), rumors that Italian banks are failing stress tests, rumors that Italy has the most exposure to Greece, and other generalized fears which today coalesced around the bank that was the most active today on the European version of Sigma X.In other news, 2 Year government spreads are once again surging as GDP-weighted EU sovereign risk is at fresh all time highs (probably to make company to the Dow Jones Transportation index).

UniCredit stock plunging:



Most active Goldman's European dark pool:



2 Year spread moves this week:



And from Reuters on the Milanese affair, explaining why Tremonti is about to go, pushing the Italy domino over:

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi declared on Friday he would not run again when his term expires in 2013, as fresh squabbling hit his government and his economy minister was drawn into a corruption investigation.

In an interview with the daily La Repubblica, Berlusconi repeated remarks that he has made on a number of occasions in recent months, saying that he would not run again and nominating Justice Minister Angelino Alfano as his preferred successor.

He also made disparaging comments about Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti, whose position has been weakened by disputes with other ministers and who came under pressure on Friday after the arrest of one of his closest associates.

"If I could, I would give it up now," Berlusconi was quoted as saying by the newspaper, one of his fiercest media critics. "I am not resigning ... but one could want to."

The problems facing Tremonti, widely credited with shielding Italy from the crisis through his rigid insistence on deficit-cutting measures, grew after Naples prosecutors filed a request for the arrest of his former adviser Marco Milanese on corruption charges.

Tremonti, who until Thursday night used to stay in a house belonging to Milanese for part of each week when he was working in Rome, issued a statement saying he had moved out after magistrates raised the graft allegations.

The fresh troubles for the government came as pressure on Italy, one of the world's most heavily-indebted countries, mounted on financial markets already on high alert over the escalating euro debt crisis.

The premium investors demand to buy Italian debt rather than benchmark German bonds widened to its largest since the introduction of the euro more than a decade ago.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/unicre ... monti-gone