Thread: Mexico collapse unlikely

Mexico collapse unlikely: Experts say government stable despite mounting border violence
By Diana Washington Valdez / El Paso Times
Posted: 02/02/2009 12:00:00 AM MST


EL PASO -- A chorus of current and former U.S. officials are sounding alarms about Mexico, warning the war-zone conditions in cities like Juárez could lead to the government's downfall.

These voices include the Joint Forces Command, ex-CIA Director Michael Hayden, former Homeland Security chief Michael Chertoff, as well as ex-U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey. Last Tuesday, Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also said he was concerned about escalating border violence.

Early in January, an obscure organization -- the Movimiento Armado del Norte (Northern Armed Movement) -- sent an alarming communique on the Internet calling on the Mexican people to revolt against the government.

But, in a letter to the El Paso Times, Arturo Sarukhan, Mexico's ambassador to the United States in Washington, denies his country is on the verge of collapse.

"The violence unleashed by trafficking organizations in response to President (Felipe) Calderón's effort to shut them down cannot be denied," Sarukhan said. "If one considers the criteria that could lead to a 'sudden collapse' -- loss of territorial control, inability to provide public services, re fugees and internally displaced people, criminalization of the state, sharp economic decline and incapacity to interact as a full member of the international community -- it
is obvious that Mexico simply does not fit the pattern."
Before Hayden's recent retirement from the CIA, he said Mexico could rank alongside Iran as a security challenge for President Barack Obama, maybe even a greater problem than Iraq, while the Joint Forces Command's "JOE 2008" said Mexico and Pakistan's governments were in danger of collapse.

Professor Josiah Heyman, a Mexico expert at the University of Texas at El Paso, said it's unlikely Mexico's governability has reached such a crisis stage.

"Part of the alarm was sparked by the fact the drug violence is taking place right next door to our border, in Juárez," Heyman said. "There are things in Mexico that are very negative, but others that are very positive, too. For example, it is managing its economy very well, it has stabilized the price of oil, and it's a real functioning democracy.

"But, it has not spread the wealth, and many decades have passed while the purchasing power of the Mexican people has fallen below what it was in 1982."

Heyman said a counter or alternative state must exist before a current state can collapse. While certain factors can lead to a government's collapse, Mexico still lacks a strong counter-state to fulfill all the conditions for a political meltdown.

Community concerns

Mounting concerns about Juárez crimes prompted U.S. Rep. Silvestre Reyes, D-Texas, to invite a State Department official who has insights into the issue to El Paso.

William J. McGlynn, principal deputy assistant secretary for the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, will speak about Mexican drug cartels Monday at the Greater El Paso Chamber of Commerce.

"The kidnappings and other crimes -- it's gone way beyond the cartels," said Richard Dayoub, the chamber's president and CEO. "Any criminal feels empowered to commit crimes, and that's part of the problem. No one's safe."

People in Mexico, from its capital city to border communities, complain about pervasive lawlessness they suspect is connected to the drug trade and corrupt law enforcement.

Ale Sánchez, a Mexico City resident and film teacher, said she's been mugged by thieves more than once in Mexico City, "and it doesn't do any good to report the crimes because the police don't do anything about it."

Since Mexican President Felipe Calderón launched his war on the drug cartels 18 months ago, the ensuing violence has claimed thousands of lives throughout Mexico, including nearly 1,700 in Juárez.

Violence and chaos has also made it easy for other criminals to run amok, abducting people for ransom, extorting businesses, robbing banks, burning buildings, stealing vehicles and killing people for other reasons.

Roberto Alvarez, 27, a blue-collar worker from Juárez, said the unrelenting violence forced him to move to El Paso a couple of months ago. To support himself and his family, Alvarez took two jobs in the food industry.

"I have friends who have been killed and relatives with businesses in Juárez who are forced to pay protection money," Alvarez said. "Despite the soldiers and police that patrol the city, no one has been able to stop the attacks, and everyone is running scared. Things are out of control, and I couldn't live like that any more."

Luis Aguilar, who works in El Paso and lives in Juárez, said, "I stopped going out to nightclubs with my girlfriend. We keep a low profile, stay around our houses and try not to call attention to ourselves.

"I was really shaken up when I heard the gunfire and saw the bodies of the five motorcyclists who were shot to death (Jan. 25). I have no idea when this craziness is going to end."

Fleeing the violence

José Contreras, a Mexican chamber of commerce official in Juárez, said some hotels in Juárez have closed or cut staffs because of the extortions, while fear of violence keeps tourists away.

Another result of the violence is a steady exodus of people to the United States, a trend not seen along the border since the 1910 Mexican Revolution.

Mexican officials acknowledge numerous residents, including Americans or Mexican nationals with U.S. visas, have moved north of the border to flee the violence.

El Paso real estate companies have reported homes sales to newly arrived Mexican citizens, many of whom are dual nationals, but hard data is difficult to come by.

"Yes, absolutely, they are buying homes here or are calling us to ask about buying homes in El Paso," said Suzy Shewmaker Hicks, president of the Greater El Paso Association of Realtors. "Some of them have the money for a down payment and can make arrangements for financing.

"This trend began last summer, although it's hard to say exactly how many of the home buyers are people who left Mexico because of the violence. We can say we saw more sales this December (through multiple listings) than we did in December 2007, which may account for some of the Mexican buyers."

Attacks on both sides

According to U.S. law enforcement, the brutal cartels have been bold enough to carry out revenge activities on the U.S. side of the border.

For example, since 2007, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency has received information about at least six drug-related kidnappings of people in El Paso who were taken to Juárez, including a man who was abducted in another state and transported through El Paso to Mexico. Last year, Phoenix and Las Vegas reported kidnappings by Mexican cartel members who posed as police.

Along the border, drug violence has turned small Mexican communities like Palomas and Guadalupe Distrito Bravos into virtual ghost towns with little activity and no tourism.

"Everyone I know who can has left Guadalupe, and the rest won't leave their house unless they absolutely have to," said Isela Gomez, a U.S. citizen who lived there.

Two weeks ago, six Gua dalupe policemen were abducted, killed and decapitated, wiping out the town's police force. Residents and U.S. drug investigators say dealers who control the region 20 miles east of Juárez feed rivals to lions.

In Ciudad Acuña, in the Mexican border state of Coahuila, drug dealers operate unhindered, said Joe Morales, a former security coordinator for transnational companies in the border cities of Acuña, Juárez and Piedras Negras.

"They are in complete control of the streets and get very little resistance from those they extort. It's every citizen for himself if they are confronted by the drug lords," Morales said. "If the drug dealers need to kill someone, they take them outside Acuña so they don't (attract) the attention of Mexican federal officers or the military. The drug dealers are suspected of killing an Acuña city councilman in 2007 who lived on the U.S. side of the border."

Mexico's tourism industry, which ranks third in the nation's economy, fell an average 10 percent in 2008 in seven tourist destinations, including in Juárez, Tijuana and Nuevo Laredo, according to the Mexican federal tourism secretary's office.

Mexicans take up arms

U.S. drug investigators say drug cartels, with vast resources and military-grade weapons, have used submarines, airplanes, trains, ships, trucks, cars and people on foot to transport drugs like cocaine, marijuana, methamphetamine and ecstasy.

About 90 percent of the cocaine that enters the United States comes in through Mexico and Central America, and border corridors at Tijuana, Juárez, Nuevo Laredo, Nogales, Ojinaga and Matamoros are considered crucial crossings for the cartels.

To battle the drug dealers, Calderón ordered 25,000 soldiers to help enforce the crackdown, mainly in Mexican hot spots and on the border. Over this period, between 1,500 and 2,000 soldiers have been rotated in and out of the Juárez region.

Calderón, who is also fighting corruption in his government, suffered a setback when he lost two key officials in the war against the cartels in a Nov. 4 plane crash in Mexico City -- Camilo Mouriño, the interior secretary, and Santiago Vasconcelos, the country's former top organized crime prosecutor, who also investigated the Carrillo Fuentes drug cartel's clandestine graves and women's murders in Juárez.

Late last year, Mexican officials detained Noe Ramirez Mandujano, 47, a former top federal organized crime prosecutor, on charges he received $450,000 to tip off the Sinaloa drug cartel about government operations against the cartel.

To protect themselves, Mexican citizens are buying guns in record numbers, according to the Mexico City-based Child Rights Network, which comprises 65 civil organizations that promote the well-being of children.

The federal Mexican Comision Nacional de Derechos Humanos says 10,500 slayings in Mexico were linked to organized crime between 2006 and 2008.

During that time, the Mexican army processed a 30 percent increase in gun permits, the Child Rights Network reported, for a current total of 2.1 million gun permits.

More than half the permits were issued to people in Mexico City and Baja California, and the figure does not reflect illegal purchases of guns on the black market.

Merida Initiative

In response to complaints over the drug violence, particularly from U.S. border states, the U.S. government devekloped the Merida Initiative, a $1.4 billion package for Mexico and Central America to be allocated over three years.

Former President George W. Bush oversaw the release of the first installment -- $400 million for Mexico --channeled through a 2008 fiscal year supplemental bill for U.S. military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The money provided by U.S. taxpayers is intended to pay for technology and equipment; to train law enforcement and military officers; for technical advice and training to strengthen the Mexican justice system; to establish and promote witness protection programs; and for projects to reduce arms-trafficking from the United States to Mexico.

Hudspeth County Sheriff Arvin West, who was born in El Paso and is familiar with border law enforcement, said his deputies have had numerous encounters with drug smugglers over the years.

"I haven't seen any results from the Merida Plan yet -- the violence is still escalating," West said. "And, what's bad, we've got a whole community fixing to arm itself, which is going to get people killed.

"Obviously, Mexico needs help, but the Mexican president needs to take it a step further because they can't do it themselves. They need to ask for assistance from our military."

Karen Hooper, Latin American analyst for STRATFOR, a global intelligence service in Austin, said unless Mexico experiences a catastrophic event, such as the assassination of the president or a destabilizing terrorist attack, "it is unlikely for the government to collapse or for the U.S. military to play an active role in Mexico beyond one of cooperation, such as through the Merida Initiative."

"Yes, the violence has increased, but so far, it's been mostly cartel-on-cartel violence. The cartels have no interest in doing something that could lead to a U.S. military (response). If everything stays the same, the most that can happen is for the status quo to remain."

Diana Washington Valdez may be reached at dvaldez@elpasotimes.com






Mexico bills
Legislative and funding programs for Mexico:

Merida Initiative (HR 602: Allocates $1.4 billion to Mexico and Central America to fight drug cartels and train police and soldiers.

Southwest Border Violence Reduction Act of 2009: Proposed by Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, and Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., to crack down on illegal gun smuggling networks.

S91: Proposed Jan. 6 by Sen. Daniel Vitter, R-La., to reduce the amount of financial assistance to Mexico by $1,000 for each case of illegal border crossing recorded.

Credit swap line: The U.S. Embassy in Mexico announced in October the Federal Reserve arranged to make available up to $30 billion each to Mexico, Brazil, Korea and Singapore, if needed, in order to help their economies' requirements for liquidity.



http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_11606866

I dont see how mexico is on the verge of colaps, when the federal governmet is giving huges sums of money to help them.
Our government is more "concen" about giving away to other countrys,
instead of the people who are USA citizens, like the vets.