Thursday, June 24, 2010

Midterm Disaster Looms for Democrats as Confidence in Obama Wanes

Polls by Rasmussen and the Wall Street Journal show US citizens are increasingly angry about jobs, bailouts of banks, and the oil spill.

The Wall Street Journal reports Confidence Waning in Obama, U.S. Outlook ... TopStories

Americans are more pessimistic about the state of the country and less confident in President Barack Obama's leadership than at any point since Mr. Obama entered the White House, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

Sixty-two percent of adults in the survey feel the country is on the wrong track, the highest level since before the 2008 election. Just one-third think the economy will get better over the next year, a 7-point drop from a month ago and the low point of Mr. Obama's tenure.

Amid anxiety over the nation's course, support for Mr. Obama and other incumbents is eroding. For the first time, more people disapprove of Mr. Obama's job performance than approve. And 57% of voters would prefer to elect a new person to Congress than re-elect their local representatives, the highest share in 18 years.

The results show "a really ugly mood and an unhappy electorate," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with GOP pollster Bill McInturff. "The voters, I think, are just looking for change, and that means bad news for incumbents and in particular for the Democrats."

Mr. McInturff said voters' feelings, typically set by June in any election year, are being hardened by frustration over the economy and the oil spill. "It would take an enormous and seismic event to change the drift of these powerful forces before November," he said.

Direction of the Nation

All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you fee that things are off on the wrong track?

Approval of Obama

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Inquiring minds are looking into the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll ... cking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 28% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13.

Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove.

Not surprisingly, 62% of Adults nationwide say most politicians want more power and money for the government. At the same time, 58% believe that most voters want the opposite.

56% Give Congress a Poor Rating

When it comes to Congressional performance, Congress Still Receives Poor Ratings From Voters. ... erformance

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows only 12% give Congress’ performance good or excellent ratings. The majority (56%) gives Congress a poor rating.

Ratings for the legislature are little changed from last August. Over the past year, the number who rate the job Congress is doing as poor range from 47% to 71%. Meanwhile, the number that gives the legislature good or excellent marks has stayed within a much narrower 10% to 18% range.

Still, slightly more voters believe Congress has passed legislation that will significantly improve life in America. Thirty percent (30%) now say that is the case, up just a point from April but up significantly from results found all of last year. The majority (56%) continues to disagree with the idea that Congress has passed such legislation, which is similar to results found in April and March but is down from 70% in February before the passage of the national health care bill.

Another 14% are not sure whether Congress has passed any significant legislation.

Fifty-five percent (55%) now favor repeal of the health care law passed in March.

These numbers add up to significant Democratic losses in the upcoming midterm elections.

Moreover the next few jobs reports will add to the gloom as hundreds of thousands of temporary census workers lose their jobs, and the headline numbers will likely be negative for a few months.

Given that stimulus has clearly run out of steam, and the next few monthly jobs reports will be grim, there is an increasing chance Republicans win enough seats to retake the House.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... ts-as.html