Thread: With Millions on the Move, This Guide Maps the Routes to Pro

With Millions on the Move, This Guide Maps the Routes to Prosperity

Mountains of data are available to track the cross-border flow of goods and money in this hyperglobal economy. But the migration patterns of millions of people can get lost in the shuffle, and with them what those patterns say about opportunity around the world.

A new study provides a measure of opportunity for people leaving their homelands -- and a map of opportunity for the countries that might adopt them.

Commissioned by Western Union, the money-transfer company, and prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit, the study ranks 61 countries according to three criteria: their need to attract immigrants to sustain economic growth; their appeal to immigrants based on economic and social environments; and their accessibility, based on factors such as visa policies.

The study comes at a time when more people than ever are on the move to flee poverty or political unrest. About 200 million people world-wide live outside their country of origin, compared with 75 million people just four decades ago, according to the United Nations. And yet migration has been one of the least studied and most controversial components of globalization.

"We have reams of data on trade flows and capital flows, but the transfer of people has been the stepchild," says Don Terry, an immigration expert.

Opportunity is relative. Not all international migrants are moving from poor to rich countries; nearly half are moving from developing countries to other developing countries -- Zimbabwe to South Africa, or Bangladesh to India. That helps explain why so many people are uprooting themselves despite the fact that many developed countries didn't score high in all three criteria.

The U.S. remains the world's most attractive country for immigrants. It ranks seventh in accessibility, a criterion influenced by such factors as degree of openness to immigrants, ease of hiring foreign nationals and government immigration policy. The study, called "Global Migration Barometer," comes in the run-up to the heated American election, in which immigration is a key issue.

Former British colonies such as Australia, Canada and New Zealand rank among the highest in accessibility. The small, dynamic economies of Singapore and Hong Kong also scored high in this index, thanks to an open policy to foreigners.

The most basic criterion is need for immigrants. Since World War II, declining birth rates, coupled with a rise in life expectancy, has shrunk the proportion of the working-age population in many countries. Unless immigrants fill the work-force shortfall, government coffers and economic growth will come under increasing pressure, according to the report. Japan, where the birth rate stood at 1.3 children per woman last year, well below the 2.1 rate required to maintain current population, is the country that most needs immigrants, according to the report. Yet Japan ranked 54th in terms of how accessible it is to immigrants.

"I was surprised to see some countries that clearly need a lot of migrants appearing not accessible and not attractive to migrants," says Dilip Ratha, a senior economist at the World Bank. "It provides a sort of eye-opener for these countries." Apart from Japan, the countries most in need of immigrants are in Europe -- including Eastern Europe.

Among the most interesting findings was the report's conclusion that Russia, despite its newfound economic and political clout, has a "very unfavorable" demographic profile, because of a dwindling and aging population, low life expectancy and a decreasing working-age population. "In the absence of large-scale immigration, Russia will not have the labor resources to sustain high economic growth rates," the study argues.

The U.S. ranked 31st in need, only in the middle of the pack because it has already absorbed millions of immigrants, legal and illegal, and because the current influx, about 1.5 million annually, helps soften the impact of the bulging population of senior citizens relative to working-age adults. Boosting immigration would relieve more pressure, experts say. But given the national debate over illegal immigration, the U.S. is unlikely to launch policies to draw many newcomers in the near future.

In terms of attractiveness to prospective immigrants, a large economy, multicultural society and relatively high quality of education are among attributes that earned the U.S. the top ranking, with the U.K., Australia, Norway and France next on the list. The most attractive countries for immigrants are politically stable, democratic nations with high standards of living. Ironically, with the exception of France, most of the countries that score high in their appeal for immigrants don't necessarily have a need for them.

Yet if a rich country opens its doors, it doesn't necessarily mean there will be a flood of migrants. And, by and large, people don't like to move.

"People prefer to live and die where they are born," says Mr. Ratha, the World Bank economist. "It's too painful to leave one's home and family."

Write to Miriam Jordan at miriam.jordan@wsj.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1221794 ... %3Darticle

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