Thread: Municipal Markets Prepare For 'Hundreds&Hundreds' Downgr

Muni Market Prepares For "Hundreds And Hundreds" Of Downgrades Tomorrow

ZeroHedge
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/07/2011 21:38 -0400

"There will be hundreds and hundreds of municipal downgrades, which will not do well to bolster investor confidence."

While the impact on Treasurys as a result of the downgrade may be limited (after all the other side of the Atlantic is about as ugly as the US, so where could $8 trillion in marketable USTs practically go... at least for now), the same may not be said about the far smaller, $2.9 trillion municipal market, which is about to see a blanket downgrade tomorrow as S&P warned on Friday night, and of which Matt Fabian of Municipal Market Advisors earlier said that

The scary bit: "Treasuries may be able to shake off a real impact from the downgrade. Munis I’m less sure about."

Indeed, with futures already trading, and most risk assets experiencing a brief knee jerk reaction on a global coordinated PPT response by the G-7, there is still little clear understanding of what will really happen to not only the traditional system but to shadow liabilities such as repos and money markets. And munis are just one part of all of this. So what will happen if tomorrow the muni market starts unravellling, as Whitney, among so many others, has predicted? For that we turn to JP Morgan's Peter DeGroot for some quick observations.

From JP Morgan on munis:

* Market volatility should continue next week with S&P’s US downgrade following this week’s manic capital market performance

* Tax-exempt yield movements will likely remain unstable, as dictated by benchmark Treasury yields, despite low long-term new issue volume next week

* Instability in the US credit may further net outflows in the municipal space. Net issuance, however, remains supportive of liquidity

* After S&P’s announcement of the US downgrade, expect follow-through on municipals directly supported by the US credit, as well as those highly reliant on the federal government

* The Central Falls bankruptcy case will be important to follow because of its potential broad implications for local government credit

* While we have been warning for some time of the elevated strain on local government fiscal positions, Central Falls could potentially have ramifications that could support local credit quality by (i) bringing clarity to the priority of the GO credit, (ii) providing a model for state activism, and (iii) adding steam to the momentum of some small cities using Chapter 9 to reduce fixed labor costs.

We anticipate some period of volatile/higher Treasury yields over the short horizon. We do not expect materially higher US borrowing costs as a result of the downgrade given that we do not expect sizable forced selling of Treasury bonds; rate movement of other sovereigns has been muted when faced with similar ratings actions; Treasuries quickly retraced their yield movements following the initial warning by the rating agencies; and the spot metrics for the US are arguably within the range for a AAA sovereign rating (see Treasuries).

We can expect S&P will downgrade all municipals backed by the US credit such as pre-refunded bonds and agency-backed municipal debt. Further, those credits with large fiscal transfer dependencies would also likely see in-kind downgrades. The rating implications are likely similar to those specified by Moody’s in their 7/13/2011 note.

Moody's suggested moving approximately 7,000 muni bond ratings totaling $130bn, “directly linkedâ€

Note: Municipal Bonds
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Municipal_bond

Purpose of municipal bonds

Municipal bonds are securities that are issued for the purpose of financing the infrastructure needs of the issuing municipality. These needs vary greatly but can include schools, streets and highways, bridges, hospitals, public housing, sewer and water systems, power utilities, and various public projects.

yep ... many have been warning for a very long time...

there is a price to pay for being stupid; and many local and state entities got very very goofy

being stupid now costs big money and its time to start paying

Originally Posted by AirborneSapper7

yep ... many have been warning for a very long time...

there is a price to pay for being stupid; and many local and state entities got very very goofy

being stupid now costs big money and its time to start paying

===========================================

Municipalities (towns, cities, parishes, townships, etc.) are THE BREAD AND BUTTER TAX BASE in the United States for all three sources: LOCAL, STATE, and FEDERAL tax revenues.

Once these start going bankrupt, and what most don't grasp yet, is that all the other social infrastructure supports will fall in direct successions.

Programs like Medicare, Social Security, IRAs, 401Ks, Military Retirements and similar medical and retirement programs dependent upon these tax revenues will become insolvent almost overnight.

We got a VERY GOOD GLIMPSE of what is about to happen last week just before the DEBT CEILING was raised another two trillion$.

Are you getting this?